Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 191911
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
high pressure will continue to bring clear weather and very
mild days to New York and PA through the weekend. A weak front will
usher a few showers into the region at the start of next week.
Near term /through Friday/...
240 PM update...
main concerns in the near term remain focused on the cool overnight
temperatures tonight, the valley fog expected Friday morning, and
warmer temperatures Friday afternoon.
Upper level ridge axis currently over the Great Lakes will slide to
the east tonight and Friday along with a noticeably warmer air mass.
850 mb temps under this ridge are in the +13 to +15 deg c range.
Large scale suppression will continue to be the main story across
central New York and NE PA through tomorrow with mostly clear skies
tonight and calm winds leading to another cold air drainage
situation and more valley fog into Friday morning.
A good portion of the area will see temperatures fall into the 40s
tonight...with a few upper 30s not out of the question in the
The axis of the ridge will be directly overhead Friday and basically
become the dominant feature in the area, and keep weather conditions
quiet across the region through the day. Skies should remain mostly
sunny after the fog lifts...with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
240 PM update...
the slow-moving upper ridge will continue to track east Friday night
and Saturday morning with another cooler night and the potential for
valley fog. On the back side of the ridge, winds will begin to shift
out of the south...and usher in a bit more moisture. As temperatures
warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s, and dew points climb as
well...and advancing weak short wave from the west...moving
right into the ridge...may be able to trigger a few convective
showers over portions of wrn New York/N-central PA Saturday afternoon.
Not very confident in this potential, but believe it is not
zero, and likely worthy of a mention. Therefore, have added a
small window of slight chance of rain showers over the central
srn tier in New York and portions of Bradford County in PA.
The wave is expected to roll through Saturday night, along with some
cloud cover, which should limit the amt of radiational cooling and
also the potential for valley fog. Temperatures will remain fairly
mild Sat night...into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A modest SW flow
will develop Saturday night and continue into Sunday with a
secondary surge of warm moist air moving in.
Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 80s Sunday afternoon
with a brisk SW wind 10 to 20 mph. Large scale suppression under
high pressure is expected to keep weather conditions quiet through
the day Sunday.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
305 PM update...trends continue to show a slower approach of the
front, now looking more likely to move through during the day
Monday. Increased pops up into the likely category on Monday as
model consensus continues to improve. Could still see some light
Post frontal showers and lingering clouds in the northwest flow into
the day Tuesday as the upper level trough is overhead. High
pressure moves in bringing dry weather Tuesday night.
Differences in model timing for the next front, with the GFS
bringing chances for rain as early as Wednesday. Meanwhile the
European model (ecmwf) keeps our area dry right into Thursday. Used the nbm for
this lower confidence time period, which gives slight chance to
low end chance for showers by next Thursday. Looking cooler, and
more seasonable in the extended, with highs mainly 65-75 and
overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s to 50s.
Previous discussion below
Model guidance has slowed the arrival of a cold
front from Sunday evening/night to maybe as late as Monday
afternoon now. A blend of model guidance keeps chance pop
overnight Sunday into Monday morning and is now introducing
likely pop by Monday afternoon. So the remainder of the weekend
is looking mostly rain-free, and deep SW return flow will send
temperatures well above normal on Sunday, with highs possibly in
the low 80s for much of the area.
Most of the model guidance has the cold front through the region
by Monday night, with high pressure and cooler temperatures
moving in for Tuesday and should persist for the remainder of
Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
mainly clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions expected at
all terminals through this evening. However, once again
conditions become favorable for valley fog tonight...after 06z
where IFR conditions are likely at kelm through 13z Friday
Friday through Sunday...VFR except late night/early morning
valley fog expected for at least kelm; possibly kith and kbgm
for brief periods as well.
Sunday night through Tuesday...mainly VFR, but some
restrictions possible in showers as front crosses, especially
Monday afternoon and evening.
Tuesday...VFR conditions likely with high pressure building in.
May see some patchy fog at kelm in the morning.