Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 161026
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
626 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
a cold front will continue moving south across Pennsylvania
today with a few showers. Behind the front, high pressure will
build into the region for the remainder of the week.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update based on trends with
cloud cover and temperatures. Forecast discussion below on
A cold front will slowly move southward across PA today. Enough lift
will be present for a band of stratus clouds. This band of clouds
will be most persistent across the southern tier hanging around
through the day. We anticipate this lasting longer than what
model guidance indicates as well. Only a few spotty light
showers are expected today along this front due to the limited
amount of moisture. Cloud cover will keep highs from getting out
of the 60's for most of central New York. However, sunnier locations
along the New York thruway and in NE PA should get into the low 70's.
High pressure begins to build into the region tonight. This looks to
be the first of many nights upcoming with clear skies and light
winds. Radiational cooling should allow for a few degrees
cooler than model guidance with many locations getting into the
A sunny day Tuesday thanks to the high pressure system. Went a touch
over model guidance here given the modeled 925mb temperatures
on highs with most locations getting to around 70.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
3 am update...
very quiet conditions are anticipated in the short term period.
At the surface, dry high pressure will renew itself, dropping
out of Quebec to settle across the entire northeast. Aloft,
amplified ridging initially over the western Great Lakes will
shift over our region. The end result will be a generally clear
sky with a very stable atmosphere. This will produce wide
diurnal ranges between cool nights and comfortable days.
Highs will edge up slightly as ridging aloft takes over, from
upper 60s-lower 70s Wednesday to mostly 70s Thursday except
highest elevations still in 60s. Strong radiational cooling of
dry air each night will yield lows of primarily 40s. A few our
typically coldest spots Tuesday night could even slip into
upper 30s, such as pockets of Delaware and northern Oneida
counties. This will also be ideal for typical late season valley
fog development each night-early morning.
Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
3 am update...
there is high confidence for remarkably dry and quiet
conditions to persist, and temperatures will trend warmer.
High pressure at the surface, with amplified warm ridging
aloft, will remain in place right into the weekend. Main trend
of note, is for temperatures to get warmer each day. Highs of
mainly mid to upper 70s Friday, will reach upper 70s-lower 80s
for Saturday-Sunday. Dewpoints are anticipated to still be
comfortably low - mainly 50s - late this week. However, high
pressure will start to shift east Sunday which by then may allow
dewpoints to creep up into the 60s via southwest return flow.
Ridging aloft will also start to skew eastward, exposing US more
to southwest flow and increasing sky cover Sunday. Our next
actual rain chances still appear to wait until just after the
weekend in the latest operational models.
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
Low stratus and fog has been present this morning at kith, kbgm
and kelm. Restrictions have been swinging like a pendulum from
LIFR to none. This leads to more uncertainty than normal at
these sites. The most likely outcome is primarily MVFR ceilings
the rest of this morning that are very slow to lift to VFR by
days end. Ksyr, krme and kavp should remain VFR through the day.
Winds under 10 knots at all taf sites.
Mainly VFR tonight. Some potential for valley fog tonight.
Highest confidence at kelm where restrictions have already been
introduced. Winds under 10 knots.
Tuesday through Friday...VFR except late night/early morning
valley fog probable for at least kelm; possibly others.