Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 160131
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
931 PM EDT sun Sep 15 2019
weak low pressure will slide east out of the Great Lakes
bringing clouds and showers to the area tonight. High pressure
will build back into the region on Monday with a return to dry
weather. Dry weather will last the entire week.
Near term /through Monday night/...
930 PM update...
just minor changes with the forecast in good shape. Cloudy skies
have spread across most of cny and into nepa. Only a few
sprinkles in cny but more light showers in wrn New York and northwest PA will
move into the area, so scattered light showers will become more
short wave zipping through in the northwest flow will develop
showers along a surface trough tonight into Monday. Forcing is
fairly weak but radar composite shows a broad area of rain
moving into The Finger lakes and while the leading edge may be
mostly aloft, expect showers to break out over the area in the
next couple hours with the wave.
Models still do show a bit of weakening threat with the wave and
associated rain as it enters a more confluent upper flow. So,
pops will slowly lower overnight toward morning.
High pressure and drier air begin a push south and a dry
northeast flow develops Monday. This will renew the push to the
south of the surface trough as a cold front and bring an end to
the rain from north to south on Monday.
Expect cool and dry weather Monday night under high pressure.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
303 PM update...
high pressure will begin to build across the entire region
Tuesday and continue into the middle of the week with large
scale suppression keeping weather conditions quiet, and skies
mostly sunny with highs hovering in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Clear skies overnight will likely lead to strong raditional
cooling at the surface...especially in the valley locations
with an increased potential for fog as well. Tuesday night will
be on the chilly side with lows bottoming out in the lower to
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
303 PM update...
not much change to the extended forecast with high pressure
continuing to build into the northeast along with a warmer air
mass. Conditions expected to remain dry with temperatures into
the mid 70s to lower 80s...and overnight lows in the 50s. May
also see additional chances for patchy valley fog with clear
skies and light winds creating favorable conditions during the
early morning hours.
Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
a stationary front will slowly push southward through tomorrow
and bring light rain to central New York and NE PA. Moderate
confidence that restrictions should be MVFR, but can't rule out
some lower ceilings and possibly periods of IFR. Slow
improvement will begin on Monday from north to south with VFR
and mostly clear conditions returning by Monday afternoon.
Monday night through Friday...VFR except late night/early
morning valley fog probable for at least kelm; possibly others.