Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
552 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
a remarkably long quiet pattern starts today as dry high
pressure overtakes the region. It will persist through the
week, before finally shifting east after Sunday. Other than
typical late night valley fog, the sky will be mostly clear with
cool nights balanced by progressively warmer days. By the
weekend many locations will reach above 80 degrees for highs.
Near term /through tonight/...
215 am update...
long stretch of dry quiet weather begins today.
Weak front is distant to our south, and now we find ourselves
under building high pressure. Light northerly flow will continue
to feed in a dry air mass, which will gradually veer light
northeasterly tonight into Wednesday as the center of sprawling
Canadian high pressure drops into New England.
Generally clear sky and dry air has set the stage for chilly
nighttime conditions from radiational cooling, yet near normal
daytime temperatures as sunshine produces a wide diurnal range.
Along with that, we are getting late night valley fog that is
so typical of any clear night in the second half of September.
Valley fog, especially for the twin tiers to the Delaware
valley, will mix out in the dry air mass by mid morning yet can
be expected to redevelop after midnight tonight. More of the
same Wednesday, with any valley fog giving way to sunshine.
Lows tonight will mainly range from 40 to 50 degrees, though
a few of the normally coldest pockets of Delaware Otsego and
Oneida counties could actually slip into upper 30s as has
already occurred this morning. Highs today will be upper 60s-
mid 70s, and for Wednesday only a couple degrees lower.
Short term /Wednesday through Friday night/...
atmospheric ridging through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will
bring an elongated period of quiet weather and Summer-like
temperatures to New York and PA.
Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s on Thursday and into
the middle or upper-70s on Friday. Cool mornings will yield
patchy fog each day, especially along the river valleys.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
the operational models continue to forecast a beautiful weekend
across New York and PA as high pressure spins over the mid-Atlantic.
Temperatures will rise into the lower-80s on Saturday and
Sunday, making the weather more reminiscent of July than
A weak cold front will dip into northern New York Sunday night and
bring a few showers to the region. Monday will remain quite
mild for the last half of September. Scattered showers are
Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/...
dry high pressure is taking charge with widespread VFR other
than valley fog at kelm and at times kith. The clear sky and
calm wind has produced dense valley fog as expected at kelm
this morning, often even below Airport minimums. This is pretty
typical for any clear night during the second half of September.
MVFR to IFR visibility has bounced in-and-out of kith as well
due to fog that has pooled in vicinity of the southern end of
Cayuga Lake. Fog will probably be gone before 12z for kith but
will take until almost 14z to burn off at kelm. Winds will pick
up slightly out of the north around 4-8 knots during the day,
before reverting back to light and variable for tonight. Very
little change to the situation for tonight, with repeat
performance for fog at kelm and kith.
Tuesday through Saturday...VFR except late night/early morning
valley fog probable for at least kelm; possibly others.