Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
322 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
a cold front dropping across Lake Ontario will bring a few snow
showers to upstate New York through this evening. High pressure
and clearing skies are forecast for the weekend.
Near term /through Saturday/...
a weakening front will sag across northern New York today and keep
light showers and flurries over The Finger lakes and western
Mohawk Valley. Increasing sun is forecast elsewhere with
temperatures rising to around 40 degrees.
A strong cold air push will move across Lake Ontario this
evening and set off additional snow showers. Light accumulations
are expected. Temperatures will drop into the teens across most the
region, with colder readings across our northern counties.
High pressure will control our weather on Saturday. An abnormally
cold air mass will keep temperatures from rising much above 30
degrees during the afternoon.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
310 am update...
High pressure with dry and quiet weather continues through
period. The main story will be the very cold temperatures once
again. Have dropped lows Sunday morning below guidance as it
should be a great night for efficient radiational cooling with
mostly clear skies and light winds. Looking at single digit for
a large portion of central New York and possibly some single digit
readings down in the southern tier, with teens likely in NE PA.
Good news is that temperatures should rebound on Sunday as high
pressure shifts east and flow turns more from the
southeast by Sunday afternoon. This should help high
temperatures climb well into the 30s and possibly a few 40
degree readings for parts of NE PA.
Sunday night, clouds could begin to build into the region, but
this will depend on the track of a coastal low that models have
staying well off shore for now. The Euro still has the furthest
west track, but even if the storm does track a bit further west,
any precipitation will hold off until after the short term
period of the forecast.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
315 am update...
Will have to continue to watch the track of a coastal low for
precip chance later Monday and Monday night. Could have some
cold air damming at the surface ahead of this system and if it
were to track close enough, then freezing rain would be a
possibility Monday night. For now, a blend of model guidance is
only giving slight chance pop to very low chance pop Monday
night. Confidence on the actual track and evolution of this
system remains low at this time, but will have to continue to
monitor due to the mixed precip potential Monday night.
The coastal low pulls off to the northeast and a weak upper
trough/low pushes across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A brief period of northwest flow/cold air advection may kick
off some lake effect snow showers on Wednesday, but at this time
it appears that this would be just a brief and light lake
effect event based on the marginally cold air that arrives.
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are forecast through midday Friday as a
weakening trough slides into New York state. The approach of the
trough will cause ceilings to lower to between 2500 and 3500
feet during the afternoon.
A second push of cold air will trigger snow showers across our
northern terminals Friday evening, especially from ksyr to krme
between 00z and 06z. Visibilities in snow showers will fall to
between 1sm and 3sm.
Friday night...possible ceiling restrictions across the New York
terminals, and chance of snow showers mainly ksyr- krme, due to
a passing cold front with gusty northwest winds.
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR expected, with a few rain or
snow showers Tuesday afternoon.