Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 190649
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
249 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
high pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to New York
and PA through the weekend. A weak front will usher a few
showers into the region at the start of next week.
Near term /through Friday/...
High pressure will bring mild temperatures and clear skies to
the region through Friday. Patchy dense fog is expected each
morning, especially along the river valleys.
Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s Thursday, fall into
the middle-40s Thursday night, and rebound into the middle-70s
Short term /Friday night through Saturday/...
220 PM update...
Little change to the weather pattern with high pressure at all
levels. The surface high continues to the south but expands over
the mid Atlantic states. The upper level ridge remains over the
Dry air and mainly clear skies to start, then some high clouds
will spill over the top of the ridge Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Valley fog still likely after midnight until around 9
am each morning in south central New York and nepa.
Temperatures slowly rise through the period. Thursday night lows
mostly in the 40s rise into the low and mid 50s Friday night.
High temperatures rise from the mid and upper 70s Friday to the
upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
no major changes in the extended period; only made minor timing
adjustments based on the latest blended guidance. Still looking
dry for Sunday, then a low pressure system and front moves
through later Sunday night into Monday, bringing showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm to the area. 5 to 10 degrees cooler
Monday/Tuesday compared to Sunday.
High pressure will slide eastward on Sunday and allow a front
to drop down from Ontario. Operational models suggest the front
won't arrive in New York until after sunset, so we should squeeze out
another Summer-like day on Sunday with temperatures in the
Isolated showers will accompany the front Sunday night.
Scattered showers are expected for the beginning of the new work
week. Temperatures, while still mild for late-September, will be
a little cooler than they were over the weekend.
Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/...
IFR fog will affect the kelm terminal early this morning and
possibly rise out of the River Valley to affect kbgm around
sunrise. Visibilities will fall to 1/2 mile or less in fog with
ceilings between 100-300 feet.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions
are forecast through Thursday evening.
Thursday night through Sunday...VFR except late night/early
morning valley fog expected for at least kelm; possibly briefly
kith- kbgm some mornings.
Sunday night through Tuesday...mainly VFR, but some
restrictions possible in showers as front crosses, especially
Monday afternoon and evening.