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afdbgm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
207 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure remains in charge for several days, before
shifting east after Sunday. This will bring a prolonged stretch
of quiet weather. Other than typical late night valley fog, the
sky will be mostly clear with cool nights balanced by
progressively warmer days. By the weekend many locations will
reach above 80 degrees for highs.

&&

Near term /through Thursday/...
2 am update...
high pressure has already been influencing our weather, but it
will drift directly overhead today through Thursday.

The combination of clear sky and dry air will cause a wide
diurnal range of upper 30s-upper 40s for lows courtesy of ideal
radiational cooling yet near average highs in full sunshine.
For today, we will reach mid 60s-lower 70s, then a touch higher
for Thursday with upper 60s-mid 70s.

The dryness of the air mass will cause valley fog to be rather
shallow early this morning, and again late tonight-early
Thursday morning. Even so, where it forms it will be locally
dense for the usual spots; indeed this is typical for any clear
night in the second half of September.

&&

Short term /Thursday through Friday/...
atmospheric ridging through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
will bring an elongated period of quiet weather and Summer-like
temperatures to New York and PA.

Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s on Thursday and into
the middle or upper-70s on Friday. Cool mornings will yield
patchy fog each day, especially along the river valleys.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
2 PM update...
little change to the forecast. Dry weekend before showers Sunday
night to Monday night. Best chances will be Monday afternoon.
Dry on Tuesday and cooler with highs mostly lower 70s.

Previous discussion...
the operational models continue to forecast a beautiful weekend
across New York and PA as high pressure spins over the mid- Atlantic.
Temperatures will rise into the lower- 80s on Saturday and
Sunday, making the weather more reminiscent of July than
September.

A weak cold front will dip into northern New York Sunday night and
bring a few showers to the region. Monday will remain quite
mild for the last half of September. Scattered showers are
forecast.

&&

Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
dry high pressure remains in control, with widespread clear VFR
other than typical early morning valley fog at kelm and at
times kith. Calm or light/variable wind will become northeast
4-8 knots during late morning through afternoon, before
reverting to variable in the evening.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR except late
night/early morning valley fog expected for at least kelm;
possibly briefly kith some mornings.

Sunday night through Monday...mainly VFR, but some restrictions
possible in showers as front approaches, especially Monday.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...bjg/mdp

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