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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
545 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Short term...(tonight through Friday night)
issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Area in weak warm air advection this afternoon...taking place
between high pressure dropping through the Central Plains and a cold
front pushing into northern MN/ND. Quite a bit of stratus cloud over
the area but clearing was working southeastward into the area per
GOES visible imagery. Temperatures as of 1 PM this afternoon were in
the 25 to 30 degree range.

The cold front over Minnesota/ND this afternoon will push into the area
tonight -looking dry but bringing with it more stratus cloud cover
going into Friday morning. Overnight lows are expected to bottom out
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

After a mostly cloudy start to Friday, high pressure building south
out of Ontario Canada will slowly clear clouds from northeast to
southwest through the afternoon. Otherwise, not a bad day
temperature-wise with closer to normal highs in the 30s, perhaps a
40 or two.

Warm air advection kicks in Friday night with winds becoming
southerly on the backside of the departing high and approaching low
pressure/cold front over southern Canada/the Dakotas.Plan on
overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s east of the
Mississippi River, and mid/upper 20s west of the river. Look for an
increase in stratus as well after midnight.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Saturday looks mostly cloudy as southerly winds ahead of that cold
front over Dakotas bring more low level moisture into the area.
These southerly winds will also draw relatively milder air into the
region with highs expected to top off well into the 30s, maybe a few
lower 40s.

A chance of snow or snow, possibly mixing with drizzle/freezing
drizzle moves in Saturday night as that cold front draws closer to
the area. Only looking at a dusting to 1/2 inch right now of snow
and perhaps a very light glaze of ice if that freezing drizzle
materializes toward Sunday morning. Plan on overnight lows in the
mid 20s to lower 30s.

Could see some lingering mixed precipitation Sunday as the mid-level
trough moves through with continued lift. Highs Sunday are expected
to be well into the 30s once again.

Another wave of low pressure drops through the region with a chance
of a wintry mix Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures not too bad
through with highs remaining well in the 30s, a maybe a few lower

Very perturbed flow pattern with modified Pacific air intermingling
with Continental polar air will continue precipitation chance right
through Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 546 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

VFR conditions expected through the first half of tonight. A
moisture-starved cold front slowly dropping south out of northern
Minnesota/WI overnight will bring with it a band of MVFR stratus towards
09z at both taf sites. MVFR ceilings look to linger through about
18z Friday, and then expect to see a clearing trend as high
pressure builds in from the north. Winds will generally stay under
10 knots through the period, shifting from SW this evening to northwest
behind the front. On Friday, expect to see northerly winds in the
morning shifting to NE through the afternoon.


Arx watches/warnings/advisories...


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