Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kapx 201431 
afdapx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
1031 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

Update...
issued at 1031 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

Weak cold front is slowly making it's way across the forecast
area, appears to be just off the NE lower Michigan coastline as of
14z. Associated light showers are just about done as well with
just a little shower activity in NE lower and moving through the
Saint Marys/Drummond Island area. Quite a bit of stratus has
developed behind the front overnight across Wisconsin and into
eastern upper/northern lower Michigan, although a number of holes
in the cloud cover are already evident on early visible satellite
imagery.

Rest of today: surface high pressure and dry air still looking to
build across the region today. Will have varying amounts of
stratus to contend with through at least midday. But dry air and
modest daytime heating will eventually lead to a clearing trend
for everyone. Temperatures will rebound nicely into the upper
50s/lower 60s.

&&

Near term...(today through tonight)
issued at 349 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

Impactful weather: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Longwave troughing was across all but the Atlantic states early this
morning, with a shortwave trough lifting up into the srn and wstrn
Great Lakes. A cold front was associated with this wave, which had a
fairly narrow corridor of deeper moisture associated with it (pwats
near an inch). Low level convergence is coupling with DPVA to be the
main forcing mechanisms, resulting in a swath of light rain showers
working into the County Warning Area attm. No instability is seen in any data,
resulting in no threat of any thunder. Much drier air is behind this
front, as skies were pretty clear across WI and the Mississippi
Valley. Further upstream, the next sharper shortwave trough was
resulting in low pressure in the Lee of The Rockies. This system
will have quite the impact over nrn Michigan into the upcoming
midweek.

The cold front, deeper moisture and associated light showers will
cross nrn Michigan by midday, with a light southerly wind turning
out of the west. The drier air from upstream will move in over nrn
Michigan, and skies will turn mostly sunny/clear and continue into
this evening. Then, the next shortwave trough closes off as it
drifts into the plains, and the associated sfc low deepens further.
That will tighten the pressure gradient, and winds will increase
overnight out of the east-southeast. Also, deepening srly winds in the low to
mid levels will quickly draw in enough moisture for skies to return
to cloudy. No rainfall is expected however. Not until Monday.

Highs today will be in the upper 50s to lower half of the 60s. Lows
tonight will fall into the 40s pretty quickly, before stabilizing
out, or even rising a touch overnight.

&&

Short term...(monday through tuesday)
issued at 337 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

..windy and rainy...

High impact weather...coastal flood issues possible.

Primary forecast concerns...wind speeds and timing in pops Monday.

An intensifying storm system will track by to our northwest through
mid week (the surface low will possibly deepen to between 985 mb and
990 mb late Monday over wisconsin). The upper level energy for this
system is now evident on water vapor imagery across the northern
rockies with jet winds off of the Pacific to near 160 knots. This
system will bring increasing winds and potentially coastal flooding
issues starting Monday afternoon on Lake Huron then on Lake Michigan
Tuesday into Tuesday night. In addition, rain will move into the
region from west to east Monday afternoon with periods of rain
expected through Tuesday (when it will be wrap around). Temperatures
will remain unseasonably mild Monday with colder air filtering in
Monday night into Tuesday.

Long term...(tuesday night through saturday)
issued at 337 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

..showery and chilly...

High impact weather...coastal flooding remains possible into
Wednesday.

Low pressure will take its time tracking by to the northwest through
Wednesday. This will be followed by upper level troughing with short
waves moving through the flow along with lake effect showers lasting
through at least Thursday. Precipitation will initially fall in the
form of rain. However, progressively colder air advecting into the
region may possibly mix the rain in with snow showers. Drier air and
eventually short wave ridging will lead to lower pops heading into
Friday and especially Saturday (extended models are still trying to
sort this out). Daytime temperatures will be several degrees below
average through the period with lows near normal levels.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 627 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

Low pressure is lifting up into Hudson Bay this morning, which will
also drag a decaying cold front across nrn Michigan by midday today,
ending any shower activity over the region. Also, there will likely
be a brief period of MVFR ceilings and a wind shift from south to west
right behind the front, before skies turn increasingly sunny and
back to VFR. A pretty quiet night, but a deepening storm system to
our west will increase winds just above the sfc for potential low level wind shear
by daybreak Monday.



&&

Marine...
issued at 337 am EDT sun Oct 20 2019

Low pressure is lifting up into Hudson Bay this morning, which will
also drag a decaying cold front across nrn Michigan by midday today,
ending any shower activity over the region. Generally weak southerly
winds will turn more out of the west, and sunshine will be
increasing. Attention then turns to much discussed deepening low
pressure in the plains, which will lift into Minnesota Monday, then into
Ontario Tuesday. This is going to result in a good possibility of
gale force winds at times Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Solid
advisories for sure. Strongest winds still look to be Monday
afternoon and Monday night.

Also, showers will move in over all areas Monday, with several
additional chances through all of the upcoming work week.



&&

Apx watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
LH...gale watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
lhz345>349.
Lm...gale watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
lmz323-341-342-344>346.
Ls...gale watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
lsz321-322.
&&

$$

Update...ba

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations