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fxus63 kapx 240747 
afdapx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan
347 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Near term...(today through tonight)
issued at 337 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

..scattered showers and a few storms for eastern Upper Michigan
this afternoon into early evening...

High impact weather potential...minimal. A few non-severe
thunderstorms across interior sections of eastern Upper Michigan
this afternoon into early evening.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...large area of surface high pressure
remains parked over the central US early this morning...with
pronounced surface ridging extending eastward thru much of the Great
Lakes region. Upper level trough axis is now just east of
Michigan...with upper level ridging building across the western
Great Lakes. Skies are mainly clear across our entire County Warning Area at this
hour...but a look at upstream satellite imagery shows some clouds
pushing south out of Ontario toward eastern Upper Michigan. These
clouds are associated with low pressure centered over James Bay with
a cold front now swinging thru eastern Ontario.

Tail end of this front will clip Upper Michigan today. Lift and some
limited synoptic moisture from this system combined with building
diurnal instability as well as enhance convergence via opposing lake
breezes should kick off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across mainly interior sections of eastern Upper Michigan this
afternoon into early evening. Expect dry wx and mainly sunny skies
across all of northern lower Michigan today into tonight thanks to
strengthening subsidence and dry air.

Temps will be a bit warmer today and a bit more mild tonight as weak
warm air advection commences in response to the high pressure center shifting east
of Michigan. High temps this afternoon will warm into the upper 70s
and lower 80s across our entire County Warning Area. Low temps tonight will cool
into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

Short term...(thursday through friday)
issued at 337 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

..increasing temperatures and humidity...

High impact weather potential...low.

Primary forecast concerns...shower chances late Friday.

Ridging aloft is in control through Friday morning which should
yield rain free conditions across the forecast area. However, an
approaching trough then leads to shower chances across eastern upper
Friday afternoon. Thunder will be yanked out of the forecast as
models do not develop much in the way of instability. Humidity
levels will be in the moderate range with temperatures a few degrees
above climatology.

&&

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 337 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

..humid with shower and thunderstorm chances then turning cooler...

High impact weather potential...low.

A couple of upper level troughs moving through the flow will lead to
shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend (though nothing
widespread or long lasting is expected). There will be somewhat
better chances for rainfall Sunday night into Monday as a surface
cold front approaches the area. Very warm and humid conditions are
expected through Monday before cooler and less humid air likely
begins to move in on Tuesday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1138 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

VFR.

High pressure in centered over Iowa. This is pushing cool/dry air
into the region. Some fog is possible late tonight, but this is
most likely in NE lower Michigan south of apn. Not expecting a major
impact for the taf sites. A touch of cu for Wed afternoon, with a
stray shower or T-storm possible in eastern Upper Michigan. VFR.

Light NW to W winds.

&&

Marine...
issued at 337 am EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria today thru Thursday
night as overall low level ridging/high pressure remain in control
of the wx across northern Michigan. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop across mainly interior
sections of eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon into early
evening. Much of this activity should not affect our nearshore
areas.

&&

Apx watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
LH...none.
Lm...none.
Ls...none.
&&

$$

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