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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
258 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Short term...tonight and Saturday

Upper ridge will build in over the panhandles and West Texas
tonight and will break down Saturday. The upper flow will
transition from west and northwest tonight to west and southwest
Saturday as an upper trough approaches the forecast area from the
north and west. Surface low pressure to the Lee of The Rockies in
eastern and southern Colorado tonight will drop south into
eastern New Mexico Saturday. Dry and warmer conditions will
prevail Saturday with a southwesterly surface flow expected. A
cold front will approach the northwest portions of the forecast
area by 00z Sunday.



Long term...tomorrow night through Thursday...
in the midlevels a cut off low will be positioned just off the
coast of Baja California and will be stationary through Tuesday,
while a trough north of the low will push across the plains
Saturday night with northwest flow aloft behind the wave. Monday
night a new low pressure system will move into the northwest
Pacific and over the next day or two will move east and south as
the stationary low off the Baja Coast becomes absorbed into the
trough pattern and ejected ahead of the main wave. A new closed
low will form over California and track towards The Four Corners
region. This is where models begin to disagree with the GFS being
faster with the progression of the system east and across the
panhandles. Meanwhile, the ec is slower by about 18 to 24 hours
with the track pushing the low a bit north across southeastern
Colorado and Kansas. The flow aloft will become southwesterly as
the new trough pattern heads towards the Central Plains.

A cold front with a surface trough in association with the upper
level wave will dive south across the panhandles Saturday night
and be through by early Sunday morning. Winds at the surface will
turn north behind the front with winds picking up to 15 to 25 mph
through the morning hours in mainly the western and southwestern
panhandles. Most models are bringing only dry conditions with the
front, so pops have been left below mentionable. However, if the
models begin to sway towards any precipitation it will likely be
in the far northwestern panhandles.

Breezy winds are expected Tuesday through Wednesday as the
panhandles sits under the left exit regions of the 200mb jet
streak by Wednesday morning. A 500mb shortwave has the potential
to advect moisture from the main low pressure center. The area of
divergence aloft brings the potential for some showers Wednesday.
Both the GFS and ec are in agreement on some moisture advected
into the forecast area Wednesday. Soundings indicate a warm nose
near the surface overnight Wednesday in the northwest where
temperatures have the chance to drop near freezing. Temperatures
drop below freezing in the northwest with the potential for some
wintry precipitation, so the forecast has a light rain/snow mix
possible if the ice crystals do not melt in a warm surface layer.

A shallow cold front will move through Wednesday night into
Thursday with surface winds turning again to the north behind the
front. A 100 knot jet streak at 200 mb will be positioned over the
forecast area with strong southwest winds and at 500mb a 50 knot
jet of southwest winds will persist over the area. Strong
southwest winds aloft combined with breezy north winds at the
surface will give way to very strong directional and speed 0-6 km
bulk wind shear. However, MLCAPE values are almost non-existent
and 850mb temps are too cold at this time to see any severe
weather for the panhandles. Precipitation will continue through
Thursday night when temperatures are expected to continue to drop
as a surface high pushes the cold front further south and another
surge of colder air into our area. GFS soundings hint at the
chance for a wintry mix in the northwest half of the combined
panhandles. The GFS with the faster track has the precipitation
ending by Friday night, while the ec doesn't have precipitation
starting until midday Friday and ending midday Saturday. The
current forecast GOES with the nbm and follows more of the GFS
timing and track, but models have been very inconsistent over the
last few runs and may not line up until early next week.

Behind the cold front Saturday night temperatures will slightly
drop into the 50s for a high Sunday, but quickly rebound for the
start of the work week. Temperatures will be well above seasonable
through Wednesday before the cold front brings average high
temperatures in the 40s an lower 50s for the area.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 36 70 37 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 34 67 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 37 72 31 58 34 / 0 0 5 0 0
Borger Texas 41 71 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch Texas 35 71 35 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
canyon Texas 34 70 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarendon Texas 35 67 39 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dalhart Texas 32 72 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 35 70 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hereford Texas 36 71 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb Texas 34 66 38 60 37 / 0 0 0 5 0
Pampa Texas 37 67 38 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Shamrock Texas 36 65 38 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Wellington Texas 36 67 37 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 0


Ama watches/warnings/advisories...

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