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fxus64 kama 171951 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
251 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Short term...tonight...

Storms forming this afternoon in eastern New Mexico should have
enough thermodynamic support to make it into the northwest corner of the
combined panhandles this evening, affecting locations like Dalhart
and Boise City. A few gusty winds will be possible, but nothing
looks to be too severe at this point. Overnight lows will again be
warm tonight, with many areas not falling out of the 70s.

Simpson

&&

Long term...

The synoptic pattern will remain stagnant through at least
Saturday with elongated 590-595 dam 500 mb high over the southern
Continental U.S.. the more active zonal flow will remain across the northern
Continental U.S.. this pattern will generally favor hot and dry conditions
for the panhandles given deep mixing potential and warm 850mb
temperatures. Most of the raw guidance and ensembles generally
agree that the 850mb thermal ridge will be centered over eastern
nm with temperatures around 35 deg c dropping to upper 20s in the
eastern panhandles. Higher elevation out west does influence this
gradient, but warmer surface temperatures are generally expected
across the western zones given overall drier moisture profiles.

High and low temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees
above average across the area, with many locations hitting the low
100s Thursday, Friday and possibly Saturday. A few locations will
see heat advisory criteria temperatures or heat index values. A
heat advisory was issued for Palo Duro Canyon for Thursday
afternoon, as confidence is fairly high that temperatures will
rise to around 107 degrees. Other locations on The Caprock may
achieve heat advisory criteria (105 degrees) Thursday, but will
give the next shift a chance to look at new data as subtle changes
in wind direction/speed, cloud cover and near surface moisture
could make or break. Thankfully the humidity is not high enough to
increase the heat index much above the actual temperature (if at
all), even in the east. Will have to watch to see what residual
cloud cover may be left over from Wednesday evening storm activity
and consider that forecast soundings do show enough mid and upper
level moisture for some high clouds to be present in portions of
the area. At this time, the chances of storm development on
Thursday are looking low given stronger capping, but still can't
completely rule out rogue storm along remnant boundaries or along
a surface trough that is expected to shift eastward out of nm.

Friday and Saturday are both expected to be basically a repeat of
Thursday, with very similar upper level pattern and thermal
profiles. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of the area
(especially Palo duro canyon) on both of those days.

The synoptic pattern is progged to change slightly going into the
weekend, as a 500mb ridge amplifies over The Four Corners up into
the Great Basin. Weak north to northwest flow aloft becomes more
prominent over the panhandles which will help bring temperatures
down and storm chances up. Models also show a weak front moving into
the area by Sunday which would also support increasing storms
chances Sunday into early next week, but there are plenty of model
discrepancies on timing and position so this potential will have to
be monitored.

Ward

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 73 102 73 102 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
Beaver OK 75 102 75 103 75 / 10 5 5 5 5
Boise City OK 67 101 69 103 70 / 40 5 5 10 10
Borger Texas 75 104 76 104 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
Boys Ranch Texas 72 103 73 104 73 / 20 5 10 5 10
canyon Texas 71 101 72 102 71 / 10 5 5 5 10
Clarendon Texas 74 100 75 100 74 / 5 5 5 0 5
Dalhart Texas 67 104 68 104 69 / 40 5 5 5 10
Guymon OK 71 104 73 105 72 / 20 5 5 5 5
Hereford Texas 70 102 72 103 71 / 20 5 5 5 10
Lipscomb Texas 76 102 77 102 76 / 5 5 5 5 5
Pampa Texas 73 100 74 100 73 / 5 5 5 5 5
Shamrock Texas 75 100 75 100 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
Wellington Texas 75 101 75 102 75 / 5 5 5 0 5

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...heat advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...none.

&&

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