Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 192310
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
610 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Aviation...00z tafs...pressure gradients will weaken slightly
heading into the evening and overnight hours, though there will be
a strong low level jet around 2k ft above ground level out of the southwest at
around 40 to 45 kts. This will help create low level wind shear at
all terminals until the winds can become surface based around
20/16z as a Arctic front impacts kguy, and a Pacific cold front
impacts kdht and kama. Winds should remain elevated through the
end of the forecast period around 20 to 30 kts with higher gusts,
along with high clouds streaming into the area at or above 20k ft above ground level.
Other than the winds, VFR conditions will prevail through the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 71 47 76 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 73 46 75 36 65 / 0 0 0 5 0
Boise City OK 69 43 69 29 62 / 0 0 0 5 0
Borger Texas 74 49 77 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch Texas 72 46 77 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
canyon Texas 72 47 75 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarendon Texas 73 48 80 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dalhart Texas 71 43 74 30 65 / 0 0 0 5 0
Guymon OK 72 46 71 34 65 / 0 0 0 5 0
Hereford Texas 71 47 75 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb Texas 74 47 79 38 67 / 0 0 0 5 0
Pampa Texas 71 48 77 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Shamrock Texas 75 47 82 41 68 / 0 0 0 5 0
Wellington Texas 76 46 83 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
Short term...tonight and Sunday...
Main focus in short term revolves around critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday. See fire weather section below.
Clear sky and dry low levels in Post-frontal environment will lead
to a cool night, with lows about 7 to 10 degrees below seasonal
norms. Light to moderate southerly winds expected tonight as
surface ridge departs to our southeast while pressures as next pre-
frontal trof deepens to our west.
Cold front moves into northwest and northern sections Sunday
morning. Mid-level cloud deck expected to also move in to northern
sections. Decreased insolation will hold Max temperatures below 70
in the northwest and will also keep winds down somewhat during the
morning. Clouds expected to dissipate during the afternoon. Drier
air moves in from the west during the afternoon with west winds
suggesting passage of a Pacific cold front. Sunday highs expected
to be about 5 degrees below normal. No pops through Sunday.
current water vapor analysis shows a closed low over Washington
state. The 15z rap shows the associated trough axis running down
through Oregon into northern California. Further model analysis is
depicting this low moving over the inner mountain west as an open
trough tonight and becoming a closed low in eastern Colorado by
Sunday morning. Sunday, this system will bring in an associated
cold front into the cwa, as mentioned in the short term
discussion. This front will bring behind it cooler air but also a
surface high that will drop winds down to 5 mph or less in the
western cwa, with other areas seeing 5 to 10 mph, going into
Monday morning. Areas in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
far northwest Texas Panhandle are looking at seeing temperatures
dropping into the upper 20s, with calm winds and clear skies,
behind the front Monday morning. The southeastern half of the
Texas Panhandle is looking to stay in the mid 30s to very low 40s.
Clear skies behind the cold front Monday will allow temperatures
to at least get into the 60s. Continuing high pressure will keep
winds calm through the day, and will be variable at times. Monday
night into Tuesday will be chilly once again with temperatures in
the low 30s for the northwest and mid 30s elsewhere in the County Warning Area. If
the winds stay below 5 mph and skies stay clear we could see even
lower temperatures than what guidance is giving US at the moment.
Going into Tuesday through Wednesday, we will see gradual warming
in the southern Texas Panhandle with temperatures reaching well
into the 70s. Wednesday night into Thursday morning another cold
front is expected to pass through the area. Lows will drop to near
freezing in the northwest overnight. This front will be associated
with a system that brings more clouds with it on Thursday. Post-
frontal with cloud cover, will hold day time temperatures back,
only reaching the 50s across the County Warning Area.
A second front, or secondary push of colder air will move in
Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday morning will bring
temps into the upper 20s in the northwest one third of the cwa,
and the rest of the County Warning Area will see temps in the low 30s. There are
still some questions about this system that is expected Thursday
night. The GFS has wide spread quantitative precipitation forecast across the area, while the Euro
only has quantitative precipitation forecast in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Also, the GFS is still
the only model that shows 850 mb temperatures below freezing,
allowing for possible snow. With the other models depicting above
freezing temperatures at h85, some wintry mix may be in question
for Thursday night as well. Thursday night is still a ways away.
Therefore, will keep pops below 20 percent and will only have the
possibility for snow in the far northwestern County Warning Area.
will convert Fire Weather Watch over western zones
to red flag warning, and will also include remainder of Oklahoma
Panhandle and north-central Texas Panhandle. Fuels have dried
sufficiently over these areas where no appreciable rain has fallen
for the past 2 weeks. Dry southwest winds will shift to northwest
across the north during the morning, and are expected to shift to
west over remaining sections with passage of Pacific cold front.
Rfti values expected to remain highest in the west, with values of 5
to 6 forecast. In newly-added areas, rfti values of 3 to 5 are
expected, yet with ercs above the 50th percentile, fuels over at
least parts of these counties will be supportive of fire spread.
Critical fire weather conditions expected to end by 9 PM Sunday.
Texas...red flag warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...
OK...red flag warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following