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fxus64 kama 142021 
afdama

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
321 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Discussion...tonight through Sunday...

Forecast begins with upper trough seen on satellite over Montana with
trailing open wave extending southwestward to southern Nevada. Expect
this feature to translate eastward tonight, pushing a cold front
southward through the panhandles Tuesday morning. With a dry air
mass in place ahead of this front, expect no precipitation
accompanying this passage. While this front is not as potent as the
cold front last week, progged surface pressure fields do show a
sizable gradient behind the front, so have continued previous
forecast trend toward the typically stronger statistical wind
consensus. Have also trended a bit below consensus temperatures
Tuesday and Tuesday night given the strong warm bias seen with the
frontal passage last week.

Wednesday through Friday see a warming trend as increasing cross-
barrier flow to our north promotes Lee surface pressure falls across
east Colorado. Resulting downsloping winds across the County Warning Area should lead to
highs in the 80s by Thursday. Forecast Friday continues to be
uncertain, as a weak wave rolls eastward across the conus, with some
guidance continuing to suggest a weak cold front will push south,
ending the downslope wind regime. Most guidance continues to hold
off frontal passage until 00z Saturday, so have kept the relatively
warm nbm high temperatures for now. Operational GFS suggests enough
moisture will be advected northward for a shower or thunderstorm
across our far eastern zones during the late afternoon, but it is
alone amongst the global models with almost no support from the
gefs, so have kept pops low during this period.

Forecast uncertainty increases dramatically by the weekend. Longwave
trough deepens through the weekend, with a strong mid-latitude
cyclone developing somewhere over the central Continental U.S. By Sunday night,
at the end of the seven day forecast. While operational guidance
keeps the forecast area in the dry slot of the resulting surface
cyclone, multiple gefs members and the CMC are hinting at a
potentially more amplified trough digging over S Arizona/nm, which would
give US a shot at precipitation. Will need to closely monitor this
in the coming days.

Ferguson

&&

Aviation...18z tafs...

VFR conditions expected through the period at all taf sites.
Southwesterly winds this afternoon will veer tonight ahead of an
incoming cold front, eventually becoming northerly Tuesday morning
with gusts up to 30 knots possible follow frontal passage.

Ferguson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 51 64 38 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 46 65 36 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 44 63 36 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Borger Texas 52 67 39 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch Texas 49 67 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
canyon Texas 51 65 38 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarendon Texas 55 68 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dalhart Texas 46 64 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 46 65 36 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hereford Texas 52 66 37 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb Texas 51 68 37 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Pampa Texas 52 64 38 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Shamrock Texas 54 70 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Wellington Texas 55 73 40 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

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