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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
411 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Short term...this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.
Isolated storms this afternoon and evening will have the potential
to produce strong winds and lightning induced wildfires. It looks
like shower/storm coverage should decrease after sunset. After
another warm night, Tuesday looks to be a bit cooler than the past
few days, though still quite a bit above normal. Only very isolated
storms look possible during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Utilized a
10% chance in the southeast Texas Panhandle where low level moisture appears
to hang around long enough into the afternoon to allow some modest
destabilization.

Simpson

&&

Long term...Tuesday night through Monday.
Not much has changed in the latest suite of model runs with
respect to the overall weather pattern for this week. An upper
level ridge of high pressure will continue to migrate west to a
position near The Four Corners region by the middle of this week.
This will result in northwest flow aloft, which is a better
steering flow for showers and tstms to move into the forecast
area from eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. Utilized the
model consensus blend approach for temps and pops from Tuesday
night through Friday night across the OK and Texas panhandles. Most
medium range models, including the consensus blend, suggest a
return to dry weather for this weekend into Monday as the upper
level ridge of high pressure moves east to a position around the
southern High Plains.

02

&&

Fire weather...this afternoon.
Dry lightning strikes will be possible this afternoon. In any areas
that have not received rain recently, these strikes would have the
potential to start wildfires. Some fires may resist containment a
bit with relative humidity values around 15% and twenty foot wind
gusts pushing 20 mph.

Simpson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 72 98 70 96 68 / 20 10 20 10 40
Beaver OK 73 101 70 97 66 / 20 10 30 20 60
Boise City OK 67 99 65 94 62 / 10 10 20 30 60
Borger Texas 74 103 73 100 70 / 20 10 20 10 50
Boys Ranch Texas 72 100 69 97 67 / 20 10 20 20 50
canyon Texas 71 98 69 95 67 / 20 10 20 10 40
Clarendon Texas 74 99 71 98 70 / 20 10 20 5 30
Dalhart Texas 67 98 65 95 63 / 10 10 20 20 60
Guymon OK 70 101 68 97 64 / 20 10 20 20 60
Hereford Texas 71 99 69 96 67 / 20 10 20 10 40
Lipscomb Texas 75 102 71 98 68 / 20 10 30 20 50
Pampa Texas 72 98 70 97 68 / 20 10 20 10 40
Shamrock Texas 73 99 71 97 69 / 20 10 20 5 30
Wellington Texas 74 101 73 100 71 / 10 10 20 5 30

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

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