Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1035 PM EDT sun Sep 22 2019
a southwest return flow around high pressure off the mid
Atlantic coast, will bring mild conditions tonight into Monday.
A cold front will cross the area late Monday, bringing showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
the early evening. A cooler air mass will be over the region on
Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers possible. Fair and
dry weather returns for Wednesday as high pressure builds in
from the Ohio Valley.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 1035 PM EDT...high clouds have increased a little bit,
as they move over the area from the west. Temperatures in a
couple of spots have fallen lower than previously forecast, but
most of going forecast was on track. Mainly fair and mild night
the majority of the high resolution mesoscale guidance has
trended drier for the mid to late PM across the west northwest
portion of the forecast area. We did keep an isolated threat for
a shower as a lake breeze or differential heating boundary may
focus a few over the southern Adirondacks, west-central Mohawk
Valley and the northern Catskills between 21z-00z. The 3-km NAM
and arw-wrf2 support this...but the 3-km hrrr and traditional
arw-WRF indicate dry conditions. Any activity should shrivel up
with the loss of the diurnal heating.
Tonight...a balmy night will be on tap compared to the last
several with high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast continuing
to pump mild air into the region. Lows will be in the mid and
upper 60s in the lower elevations with upper 50s to lower/mid
60s over the higher terrain. Some low stratus may form and creep
into western New England and the Mid Hudson valley. South to
southwest winds will be 5 to 15 mph.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
tomorrow...the mid and upper level ridge breaks down as the flow
aloft strengthens from the southwest. A potent mid and upper
level low will be approaching from the Great Lakes region and
Ontario. A muggy air mass will continue ahead of the approaching
short-wave trough and a sfc cold front. Scattered showers will
likely Blossom in the afternoon ahead of the front, as mid and
upper level heights fall. Some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible, but again instability in any shape,
variety or computed form looks fairly weak with 750 j/kg or
less with the sfc dewpts in the 60s. Their could be a few gusts
of wind in the 35-50 mph range with any taller updrafts
achieved. The deep shear and dynamics aloft are good with upper
level divergence and the forecast area near the left front
quadrant of a mid an upper level jet streak by 00z/Tue. The
severe threat is not zero, but the probability is very low. The
greatest chance for thunderstorms looks like 4 PM to 10 PM.
Highs will be above normal with 70s to lower to mid 80s across
the region. Precipitable waters will surge +1 to +3 stdevs above normal based
on the 12z gefs, but with flow so fast aloft, and Bone dry
conditions lately (no rain in a week), any bursts of rain will
be quick. A tenth to a third of an inch of rain will be
Mon night...cooler air will invade the region for the 1st day of
autumn (it will have begun at 350 am EDT on mon). Some isolated
to scattered showers will linger into the early evening with the
upper low moving overhead. Lows will fall back into the 50s to
around 60f across the region.
Tuesday...clearing is expected south of the I-90 corridor, but
the cyclonic vorticity advection with the closed upper low
coupled with minimal heating will allow for terrain forced and
instability showers forming over the northern zones. Any
additional quantitative precipitation forecast will be light. H850 temps will be a shade below
normal, but nothing way below normal for the opening days of
fall. It will be brisk and cool compared to the previous few
days with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the valleys, and
50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain.
Tuesday night to Wednesday...high pressure builds in with fair
and dry weather returning. A cool night with temps in the 40s
to around 50f will be followed by a nice start to the mid week
with highs near normal in the 60s to lower 70s for most of the
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the period starts out Wednesday night with a progressive cold front
and associated low-amplitude upper level trough approaching from the
Great Lakes region. Guidance in good agreement with timing, as a few
showers may make it into the the northwest part of our area by
sunrise Thursday. Much of the area will remain dry through the night.
The front and upper trough will move across our region on Thursday.
Once again moisture looks to be limited, although low level
convergence along the front and some forcing from the upper trough
should result in at least scattered showers for much of the area.
Temperatures will continue to be mild ahead of the cold front,
cooling off in the Adirondacks where the front will be likely moving
through earlier in the day.
A period of dry and increasingly warmer weather then looks to occur
during the Friday through Sunday time frame, as yet another upper
level ridge is expected to build along the East Coast. Initially,
temperatures will be slightly above normal Friday, but then well
above normal levels will be possible over the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. There are some model differences, with the GFS
indicating a cold front passage Saturday night. However, will side
more with the drier/warmer European model (ecmwf) and CMC, which have the strong
upper ridge remaining in place.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
low level wind shear expected at all taf sites from this evening
through the overnight period and included in tafs.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18z Monday as high
pressure holds its influence on the region. Mainly high clouds
expected overnight and Monday morning. Some MVFR/IFR fog
expected at kgfl as winds have gone calm already. With light
winds overnight, do not expect any fog to form at other taf
sites. Precipitation chances increase beyond 18z/Monday with the
Winds will remain south to southwest between 5 and 10 kts
overnight except kgfl where they will be calm most of the night.
After daybreak Monday, south to southwest winds will increase
to around 10 kts with gusts up to 20kts.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night to friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will bring mild
conditions to the region tonight. A cold front and a strong upper
level disturbance will bring showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. Cooler
conditions return on Tuesday, as an upper low will keep isolated
to scattered shower going for locations north of the capital
The relative humidity values will increase to 75 to 100 percent Monday morning,
and the drop to 45 to 75 percent by the afternoon. The maximum
relative humidity values Tuesday morning will be in the 85 to 100 percent
The winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight,
then increase to 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon before
veering to the west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph by the late
afternoon into the early evening.
A widespread wetting, but light rain may occur across the
region tomorrow into Tuesday with amounts range from a tenth to
third of an inch or so. It has not rained in about a week.
no hydrologic problems are anticipated across the region over
the next 7 days.
The next chance of rain will be ahead of a frontal boundary and
an upper level disturbance on Monday into Tuesday morning. Most
spots will see between one tenth and one third of an inch of
rain, which will have little impact on area rivers and
streams...maybe flows will rise a few centimeters and then
According to USGS streamflow, most area rivers are
seeing near normal or below normal flows for mid to late
Lingering showers on Tuesday (especially for northern areas)may
yield additional rainfall amounts of a few hundredths to a
tenth of an inch.
More dry weather is expected for Tuesday night into the mid
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.