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000 
FXUS61 KALY 181150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
750 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing 
plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures through 
Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal 
levels Friday into the weekend with dry weather continuing as 
the high drifts into the southeastern United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 610 AM EDT, some patchy clouds advancing southwest across
portions of western New England, as a weak upper level 
disturbance slides southward. Elsewhere, skies remain mostly 
clear, with temps in the mid 30s across the southwest 
Adirondacks, and generally upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere, 
except still around 50 in the immediate Capital District where a
light north wind has persisted. Also, patchy fog has developed 
across portions of the southwest Adirondacks, central/western 
Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson River Valley.

Patchy fog should burn off between 8 and 10 AM. Otherwise,
patchy clouds will continue to drift south/southwest, affecting
southern VT, western MA and NW CT through mid morning. Skies may
occasionally become mostly cloudy in some of these areas during
this time. Some of these clouds should reach into the southern
Taconics and mid Hudson Valley at times as well.

As the aforementioned upper level impulse tracks southeast of
the region this afternoon, increasing subsidence should allow
for mostly sunny skies for all areas. Slightly cooler and drier
air will be seeping south and west today, so expect max temps to
be at least 1-2 degrees cooler than Tuesday in most areas,
perhaps even cooler across some eastern areas. Expect late day
highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s within valley areas,
with mainly upper 50s to mid 60s across higher terrain.

North to northeast winds will increase to 5-15 mph later this
morning into the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Frost Advisory in effect for southwest Adirondacks, Lake
George/Saratoga region, southern VT and Berkshires for late
tonight into early Thursday morning...

Clear skies and light winds, combined with even drier air should
allow for temps to drop into the mid/upper 30s for many areas
late tonight, except lower 40s in the Hudson Valley from Albany
south to Poughkeepsie. Expect areas of frost to form across the
advisory area, with patchy frost possible even farther south and
west across portions of the eastern Catskills and southern
Taconics. There is a possibility that additional adjustments
(expansion) to current frost advisories will be made later
today.

Also, fog formation should become a bit more favorable late
tonight within river valleys, and could become locally dense by
daybreak.

Thursday, after any patchy fog lifts between 8 and 10 AM 
Thursday, expect mostly sunny skies with temps warming into the 
lower 70s in valley areas, with mainly 60-65 for higher terrain.

Thursday night-Friday night, clear/sunny skies will continue,
with gradual moderation of the air mass as the high drifts south
of the region, allowing for a light southwest to west wind to
develop. Still areas of fog will likely form within river
valleys both Thu and Fri nt, burning off between 8 and 10 AM
Friday and Saturday morning. Thursday night lows mainly in the 
40s, although still can not rule out some 30s across portions of
the southwest Adirondacks and eastern Catskills. Highs Friday 
afternoon reaching mid/upper 70s in valleys, and upper 60s/lower
70s for higher terrain. For Friday night, lows in the 40s 
across higher elevations and the Lake George region, and 
lower/mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper ridging, above normal temperatures and dry weather is expected 
Saturday and Sunday. Highs around 80 to mid 80s Hudson Valley and NW 
CT but mid to upper 70s elsewhere.

Upper energy and associated frontal system approaches Sunday night 
with clouds and showers beginning Sunday night, increasing in 
coverage Monday. Then as a cold front tracks through later Monday 
night and Tuesday showers decrease in coverage and temperatures 
cool.  Some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the 
coverage of the showers due to questions in moisture and low level 
forcing.  Differences in timing of front, too. Details will get 
clearer as we get closer.

Highs Monday in the mid 70s to around 80 but around 70 to lower 70s 
higher terrain. Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s but mid 60s to 
near 70 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure in control of the weather.

A few clouds around 1500 feet around KPSF will erode by 14Z. 
Otherwise, SKC or a few clouds above 3000 feet and VFR 
visibilities through this evening. Fog should redevelop around 
KGFL by or around midnight, possibly around KPSF as well.

Winds will be light north to northeast at less than 10 Kt this 
morning and continuing through afternoon. Winds trend toward calm 
through this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night-Sunday: Patchy FG possible late each night/early 
morning, otherwise no significant weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing 
plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures through 
Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal 
levels Friday into the weekend with dry weather continuing as 
the high drifts into the southeastern United States.

RH will fall to 35-45 percent this afternoon, then recover to
90-100 percent tonight with widespread dew formation and some
areas of frost expected. RH will fall to 35-50 percent THursday
afternoon, lowest within portions of the Hudson River Valley
from Albany south to Poughkeepsie.

Winds will become north to northeast by mid morning at 5-15 mph.
Winds will become light/variable at less than 5 mph shortly
after sunset and continue overnight into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro Service Area
/HSA/ through at least Sunday.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the ALY HSA based on the
most recent Drought Monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather through at least Sunday. 

The next chance of widespread rainfall may be with a cold 
frontal boundary approaching on Monday. 

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including 
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please 
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs 
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     041>043-054-083-084.
MA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JLV
NEAR TERM...KL

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