Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kaly 230015 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
815 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Synopsis...
a cold front will settle to our south tonight however a wave of
low pressure will move eastward along the front keeping the
threat of showers to the south of the capital district
overnight. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are expected
for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
the chance for showers along with the threat of a thunderstorm
will continue to the south of the capital district tonight. The
cold front will settle to the south of our forecast area
tonight however guidance indicates a weak wave of low pressure
will develop along the front and pass just south of our region
overnight. Any storms should move off to the east by the early
morning hours before sunrise.

To the north of the cold front dew points are dropping with
values down into the mid and upper 50s. However at Poughkeepsie
it's 75/73. Expecting lows mainly in the 50s, close to normal
for this time of year, however in the lower/mid 60s in the Mid
Hudson valley and northwestern Connecticut where clouds will
keep readings from dropping.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
a cooler and drier air mass will finally filter in across the
entire region on Friday, as the flow becomes north-northwest and an upper
level trough axis suppresses the cold front well to the south
across the mid Atlantic region. The result will be plenty of
sunshine, comfortable humidity levels and slightly below normal
temperatures.

A large area of high pressure will remain anchored near the
Ontario/Quebec border in southeast Canada through much of the period,
which will continue to result in northerly low level winds
across our region into Saturday. This will allow for dry
conditions to persist, with dewpoints expected to be in the 40s
and 50s. Saturday looks to be slightly cooler than Friday, but
still only slightly below normal.

Overnight lows will be in the 50s for valley locations and 40s
for the higher terrain Friday/Saturday night. There could be a
few extra clouds around Saturday night, as the low level flow is
expected to become more easterly with a fetch off the Atlantic.
No precipitation is anticipated through Saturday night though.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
guidance is in general agreement that to start out the period we
should have high pressure at the surface with cutoff low lingering
aloft. Also that this upper level low should weaken as it shifts off
to the east early next week with upper level ridging taking over.
Ridging is expected to dominate our weather into early next week
with fair conditions and slightly below normal temperatures Sunday
and Monday with dew points only expected to be in the 50s.

Short waves moving in over the Pacific northwest are expected to
result in the development of a longwave trough over the northern
plains into the Great Lakes region. The associated approaching low
pressure system is expected to return the chances for unsettled
weather to the local area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
southerly flow that develops in advance of the approaching system
should boost temperatures back up normal readings for late August
despite despite the chances for storms.

&&

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
a cold front will settle to the south of our forecast area
tonight however guidance indicates a weak wave of low pressure
will develop along the front and pass just south of our region
overnight. So chances for showers along with the threat of a
thunderstorm will continue at kpou; have indicate threat at
kpou with a tempo group and vcsh in the taf. Kgfl, kalb and
kpsf are expected to remain dry. VFR conditions are expected
with brief MVFR possible at kpou with any storm. Decreasing
clouds tonight with cumulus developing Friday with the heating
of the day as the upper level trough axis approaches.

Light to calm winds overnight with a north-northwest of 6 to 8
knots developing Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night to Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
a cold front will will continue to push southward into early
this evening, bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to areas south and east of Albany. A wave of low
pressure tracking along the front will bring some showers to
areas south of Albany again tonight. Drier, cooler and less
humid conditions are expected for Friday into Saturday as high
pressure builds into the region.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to around 85 to
100 percent tonight. Relative humidity values will decrease to minimum values
of around 40 to 50 percent on Friday, and increase to around 80
to 100 percent Thursday night.

Winds tonight will be northwest around 5 mph, shifting to the
north- northwest around 5 to 10 mph on Friday. Winds Friday
night continue from the north-northwest around 5 mph.

&&

Hydrology...
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across
areas south and east of Albany this evening into tonight. Most
of this activity will be light, but brief downpours will be
possible in any thunderstorms.

Dry conditions are expected Friday through the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...iaa/kl/jpv
near term...jpv
short term...jpv

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations