Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 211725
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
125 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
high pressure south of the region will bring sunny and
warm weather with above normal temperatures this afternoon. Another
cool and pleasant night is expected. A cold front will bring some
showers to the region on Monday. Behind the front, temperatures will
continue to be a little above normal through much of the rest of the
week with mainly dry conditions.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 105 PM EDT...high pressure near the mid Atlantic states
will continue to yield warm and pleasant weather for the last
weekend of astronomical Summer. The satellite picture and
observations continue to show wall to wall sunshine. The 1z2
kaly sounding is very dry with a precipitable water of 0.77", and parched low
to mid levels. The forecast Max T for Albany is 82f, and we
should be right near that number with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s in the valleys, and 70s over the higher terrain. Some
minor changes to sky cover, hourly T/TD/rh trends and Max t's
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
dry weather will continue for tonight into Sunday. Both the
upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure areas will be
shifting eastward for tonight into Sunday. This will let our
region enter a south to southwest flow both at the surface and
aloft. While it will continue to be precip-free, there may be a
few more clouds around (especially by sunday). In addition, the
south to southwest flow will allow for even warmer temps and
higher dewpoints to move into the region. Lows tonight look to
be in the 50s with some patchy fog (especially near bodies of
water once again). Highs on Sunday will be warmer, with low to
mid 80s in valley areas. It will even feel muggy, with dewpoints
reaching into the 60s.
Frontal boundary will begin approaching from the Great Lakes for
Sunday night. It should remain far enough away that no rain
occurs Sunday night, but it will be partly to mostly cloudy and
muggy, with lows in the 60s and the higher dewpoints in place.
On Monday into Monday evening, the frontal boundary will be
moving across the area from the west. Some showers are expected
to occur just ahead and along the frontal boundary. Instability
is fairly limited, so will only keep thunder to just a slight
chance for southern areas. Both the GFS/NAM show precipitable water values
shooting up close to two inches just ahead of the boundary.
Despite the moisture and decent forcing in place (strong
shortwave and some jet dynamics in place), the very progressive
and fast nature of the boundary should prevent any heavy
rainfall from occurring. Just a few quick downpours are
expected, with a tenth to a third of an inch of rain at any one
location expected with the fast moving showers. Temps should
reach into the mid 70s to mid 80s once again ahead of the front.
Behind the front, cooler and drier air will start to work into
the area for Monday night. Can't rule out a lingering shower due
to the upper level trough overhead, but most of the precip
should be done, with lows falling into the 50s.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the period begins with a pesky upper level low centered just north
of New York in Quebec. Moist cyclonic flow around this system will
bring a chance of showers to the region, mainly north of Albany.
The low pulls away Tuesday night setting up a dry period Tuesday
night into Wednesday night.
A front approaches on Thursday. The GFS and Euro are both muted with
precipitation chances for the frontal passage. The gefs plumes at Albany show
many members flatlining with zero chance of rain. For now, a stripe
of chance rain showers is forecast across the northwestern third of
the area, with slight chance pops to the south. Convective
parameters associated with the Front Point to near zero chance of
thunderstorms. Thus we carry only chance rain showers.
After this front clears, another dry period is on tap through Friday
Temperatures through the long term will run above normal, although
not as warm as this weekend. The trend is for temperatures to start
out a degree or two above normal on Tuesday and climb to 5-8 degrees
above normal by the end of the work week.
Aviation /17z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through much of the taf forecast
period as high pressure holds its influence on the region. We
can therefore expect generally clear skies throughout the
period, with perhaps some passing high level clouds. Under clear
skies with light winds, patchy fog will once again form
overnight and will mainly impact kgfl/kpsf. IFR/LIFR visbys are
possible with any fog.
Winds will remain light and variable through the overnight
period then begin increasing from the southwest between 5 and
10 kts towards 18z/sun.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: high operational impact. Breezy likely rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
high pressure will continue to allow for dry weather through the
weekend. Although early morning hours with feature heavy dew and
patchy fog with relative humidity near 100 percent, relative humidity values will fall to 40
to 50 percent during the afternoon today and 50 to 60 percent on
Sunday. Very light or calm winds are expected both today and
tomorrow. Next chance of rain will be ahead of a frontal
boundary on Monday with some showers.
no hydrologic problems are anticipated across the region over
the next week.
Dry weather will continue for this weekend with above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain will be ahead of a frontal
boundary on Monday into Monday evening. Most spots will see
between one tenth and one third of an inch of rain, which will
have little impact on area rivers and streams. According to USGS
streamflow, most area rivers are seeing near normal or below
normal flows for mid September thanks to the recent stretch of
More dry weather is expected behind this front through most of
the week. As a result, river and streams will continue to hold
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.