Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS61 KALY 141739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly fair and dry weather with above normal temperatures will
occur across the region today. High pressure will build in over
New York and New England tonight into Tuesday with seasonable
temperatures. A complex storm system will bring rain into the
region Wednesday into Thursday along with brisk and cool
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sunny across our region but the leading edge of clouds is
approaching the southern Adirondacks. Southwest boundary layer
flow should confine most of the clouds and perhaps an isolated
shower to the southern Adirondacks through this afternoon. A
band of scattered to broken clouds could hold as it tracks
through eastern NY and western New England into this evening but
should not limit the warming this afternoon. Highs in the 60s
but some upper 50s to near 60 higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...The cold front will clear the region early on with the
low-level cold advection continuing. H850 temps fall to -3C to
+2C across the region. These values are a little below normal
for mid-Oct. A few lake effect rain showers may impact the
western Adirondacks with some light rain with the westerly flow.
These showers should dwindle as the flow backs with the sfc
anticyclone building in. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s 
with a few isolated upper 20s in the southern Adirondacks and 
southern Greens.

Tuesday...Another beautiful day with initially the sfc ridge
over the Northeast. The anticyclone will drift off the southern
New England Coast by the early evening. The subsidence from the
ridge should yield mostly sunny/sunny conditions before some
high clouds increase from the west late in the day. Highs will
run closer to normal with upper 50s to around 60F readings in
the lower elevations and upper 40s to mid 50s over the higher
terrain.  

Tuesday night...The attention shifts to the northern stream
short-wave ejecting into the Great Lakes region. Clouds will
thicken and lower during the night. Initially mostly clear/clear
skies will allow for some radiational cooling with lows falling
into the 30s to around 40F parts of the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT. The sfc high continues to move eastward towards Nova Scotia.  
The return flow and low to mid level warm advection increases
toward sunrise.

Wednesday...The northern stream short-wave and its associated 
warm front moves toward NY and New England. A secondary wave or 
southern stream wave forms near the Chesapeake Bay region in the
afternoon. The assorted deterministic guidance and the 
Ensembles vary in how quickly the wave strengthens and the 
amount of QPF that will impact the region. The 00Z ECMWF and NAM
are wetter than the 00Z GFS. CLouds will further thicken and 
lower during the day with increasing water vapor transport with 
the complex system. PWATS increase +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal 
especially for the eastern zones based on the latest 00Z GEFS. 
The +v-wind anomalies increase to +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal. 
Favorable dynamics coupled with a deep moisture fetch from the 
subtropics/tropics will allow for a soaking rain to likely 
materialize and overspread the region by the afternoon. The rain
will alleviate the recent dry spell. Max temps will be in the 
mid 50s to lower 60s across the region. It will also be breezy 
with the south to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph. PoPs were 
kept in the categorical range in the afternoon. 


Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 
Rainfall by the early evening may range from a quarter of an 
inch to inch or so over the eastern Catskills.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out Wednesday night with a potential deepening 
cyclone along or just off the southern New England coast. Model
guidance in agreement with indicating a signal for coastal 
cyclogenesis to occur, but differ with regards to placement and 
strength of eventual deepening of the surface cyclone. At this 
time, consensus points towards a rapidly deepening cyclone near 
SE New England, with interaction among several disturbances as 
the upper level flow pattern evolves into a massive closed low. 
It is too early to pinpoint QPF amounts, but there is potential 
for heavy rainfall for at least some of our region. E-SE wind 
anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV already showing up in the GEFS, with
good moisture transport and large-scale forcing. 

The intense coastal cyclone is forecast to track NE along the Maine
 coast or just east in the Gulf of Maine on Thursday, as the 
system becomes vertically stacked. There will likely be wrap-
around rainfall, especially across higher terrain areas north of
Albany. As winds shift to the northwest, we will have to watch 
for strong wind speeds to develop as mixing in the cold 
advection regime may bring down strong winds aloft. At this 
time, most sources of guidance indicating around 40 kt wind 
speeds at 850 mb, but will monitor trends for possible 
strengthening given the expected intensity of the surface 
cyclone. Cool and brisk conditions should linger through 
Thursday night as the cyclone moves towards the Canadian 
Maritimes. Any leftover showers should be confined to 
northern/western areas, with even a few snow flakes possible 
over the mountain peaks.

Drier weather looks to return on Friday, as high pressure both
at the surface and aloft builds in from the west. Our area will
still be under a NW flow regime, resulting in slightly below
normal temperatures and a persistent breeze. Winds should
finally abate Friday night into Saturday, as the ridge moves
overhead. Milder temperatures with fair conditions expected
Saturday into Sunday, as high pressure only gradually moves
eastward off the east coast. A warmup should result from a
developing southerly around the departing high, especially on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region as at the time of writing this,
CLR skies at the TAF locations. However, upstream cold front was
approaching as CIGs upstream vary between BKN VFR or MVFR.
Frontal passage will occur later this afternoon, around 21Z, as
skies would become more SCT-BKN from southeast to northwest. So
we will keep VFR conditions for all but KPSF where favorable
upslope conditions could bring some lower CIGs. Conditions
improve tonight with frontal passage well to the east and VFR
conditions return through Tuesday.

Winds will become more southerly with some occasional gusts
around 20kts this afternoon. Then with frontal passage, winds
shift toward a westerly direction with a brief wind gust or two
before settling down tonight to less than 10KTS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly fair and dry weather with above normal temperatures will
occur across the region today. High pressure will build in over
New York and New England tonight into Tuesday with seasonable
temperatures. A complex storm system will bring rain into the
region Wednesday into Thursday along with brisk and cool
conditions.

RH values will lower to 40 to 60 percent this afternoon and rise
to 80 to 100 percent Tuesday morning with some dew formation. 
The RH values fall back into the 35 to 50 percent range on 
Tuesday. 

The winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph today, and
then shift to the western to northwest at 5 to 15 mph late this
afternoon into tonight. The winds will become light to calm on
Tuesday, and then increase from the south to southeast at 10 to
20 mph by Wednesday.

A widespread soaking rainfall is possible Wednesday into
Thursdays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected prior to the mid week, but then a
a widespread soaking rainfall is possible Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. Some increased flows are likely on the 
waterways.

Total rainfall still varies from the guidance, but one to two 
inches are possible in some locations with some locally higher 
amounts. Within bank rise are possible on the main stem rivers.

A period of dry weather will return Friday into the weekend
which should allow flows to slow and decrease.  

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations