Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kaly 132359 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
659 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Synopsis... very cold conditions continue tonight into Thursday
with well below normal temperatures. Temperatures will rebound
Thursday as a warm front moves through, however still below
normal. Friday will be milder with temperatures closer to
normal for mid- November. Colder air will be ushered back in for
the weekend with the passage of a cold front.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
updated at 7 PM. Mostly clear skies is allowing for rapidly
falling temperatures this evening with most of the area expected
to be in the teens by 9 PM. Increasing high and mid-level
clouds will slow the temperature drop overnight, with mainly
steady temperatures expected after midnight. Previous discussion
is below.

Very cold day with temperatures 25 to 30 degrees below normal
representative mid- winter. Record low Max/high temperatures
being set today. As of 3 PM, the highs so far today have been 25
Albany, 24 Glens Falls and 32 Poughkeepsie. The records for
November 13th are: Albany 31 degrees set in 1911, Glens Falls
set in 32 degrees 1916 and Poughkeepsie 35 degrees set in 1986.

Another very cold night with near record breaking temperatures.
Expecting to fall just short of record lows at our climate
sites tonight. Surface high crests across the region this
evening and winds diminish. The high shifts eastward overnight
and begins to shift off the coast late at night. High level
clouds will stream in tonight with warm air advection mid level
clouds also moving in. The cloud cover will help keep
temperatures from breaking record lows. Temperatures are
expected to stabilize overnight. Expecting temperatures to
bottom out in the teens with single digits mainly above 1500
feet.

Here are the record lows for November 14th: albany: 12 degrees 1996
glens falls: 5 degrees 1905 poughkeepsie: 13 degrees 1986

&&

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
temperatures rebound Thursday as a warm front moves through and
southerly develops about the departing high. However readings
will still below normal with highs in the 30s with mid/upper 20s
above mainly 2000 feet. Limited moisture with the warm front so
looking at increase in clouds.

Much milder Thursday night with lows in the 20s even though a weak cold
front with limited moisture sweep through.

Milder Friday with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November ahead
of a secondary cold front. Due expect some showers however they
will be limited to area north and west of the capital district
closer upper level support of northern stream energy.

Colder air will be ushered back in with the passage of the cold front.
Temperatures are expected to fall back into the teens with some
lower 20s in the Mid Hudson valley into northwestern
Connecticut with single digits across the southern Adirondacks
and into the higher terrain of southern Vermont.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure from central Canada will move overhead for the
upcoming weekend, bringing dry and sunny weather. Despite the
sun, 850 hpa temps around -8 to -12 c will cause highs Saturday
to fall short of 32 degrees for most locations, or 10-15 degrees
lower than on Friday. Lows Saturday night will fall into the
single digits across most locations north of the capital region
and the highest elevations of the Catskills and the teens
elsewhere. At this time, we look to fall short of setting any
record lows Saturday night. 850 hpa temperatures rebound on
Sunday, which will allow for a milder afternoon with highs in
the lower 30s to near 40. A few high clouds from a storm moving
up the East Coast will arrive for Sunday night, especially
across eastern areas. Overall, lows Sunday night will be 10 and
15 degrees higher than Saturday night.




&&

Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will prevail across all taf sites through the
forecast period with high pressure in place. Expect a gradual
increase in high level clouds this evening into the overnight
period.

Winds will be light and variable at 5 kts or less tonight, then
winds will become southerly increasing to 5 to 15 kts on
Thursday.

&&

Fire weather...
very cold conditions continue tonight into Thursday
with well below normal temperatures. Temperatures rebound
Thursday as a warm front moves through, however still below
normal. Milder Friday with temperatures closer to normal for
mid-November. Colder air will be ushered back in for the weekend
with the passage of a cold front.

&&

Hydrology...
hydrologic problems are not expected over the next several
days, however shallow non-moving bodies of water will continue
see ice form due to the anomalous cold conditions into Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Equipment...
the kenx radar will be down this week for the refurbishment
of the transmitter. Please see our webpage and the public
information statement for more details.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories... CT...none. New York...none. Massachusetts...none. Vermont...none.

&&

$$

Synopsis...iaa
near term...iaa / mse
short term...iaa

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations