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fxus61 kaly 172356 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
756 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing
plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures through
Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal
levels Friday with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
southward towards the southeastern United States.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
a frost advisory remains in effect for the northern Herkimer,
northern Warren, and Hamilton counties for late tonight into
early Thursday morning with lows in the mid-upper 30s and some
frost.

Another good night for radiational cooling under clear skies
with winds becoming calm. Expecting fog, locally dense, to
develop again mainly in river valleys and near bodies of water.
The fog may develop a bit later than last night as the
temperature-dew point spread is a greater this evening than
yesterday. Some clouds should move into western New England as a
short wave approaches as it moves through the trough over New
England.

It will be chilly with lows down in the 40s with mid to upper
30s across the southern Adirondacks with some possible across
the higher terrain of the southern Green Mountains and eastern
caskills.

&&

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
throughout the short term, high pressure will gradually shift
south-southwest towards the Tennessee Valley and southeastern US
as tc Humberto slides further northeast into the northern
Atlantic.

This will result in continued dry weather and cooler than normal
temps through Thursday. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will
be in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be much cooler
than normal Wednesday night as most locations will see values in
the upper 30s to low 40s. The higher terrain may need a frost
advisory as well. Thursday night, low temps should be in the
40s.

Temperatures begin moderating towards
above normal warmth on Friday as the high finally becomes
centered south of the region. This will allow for some clouds
to return, though most should still see more sun than clouds.
Afternoon highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
well above normal temperatures this weekend with continued dry
weather as ridging remains in control. Guidance has the upper ridge
axis to our west over the Great Lakes region at the start of the
period. The ridge is forecast to gradually shift eastward and dampen
over the weekend. While at the surface, the high will be over our
region and is expected to shift eastward off the coast by Sunday
morning. Looking at deep southwest flow across the region Sunday
into Monday with a trough approaching from the west. This
approaching trough and associated cold front will bring the first
chances for rain in nearly a week late Sunday night into Monday
evening.

Highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to run 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with lower 80s below 1000 feet and 70s above that. Monday
will not be quite as warm due to the increase cloud cover and
chances for showers. A cooler and more seasonable airmass returns
with the passage of the front for Tuesday.

&&

Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
another good night for radiational cooling under clear skies
with winds becoming calm. Expecting fog to develop again
mainly in river valleys and near bodies of water. The fog may
develop a bit later than last night as the temperature-dew
point spread is a greater this evening than yesterday. Expecting
IFR-LIFR to develop at kgfl and kpsf with MVFR-IFR possible at
kalb and kpou.

A short wave moving through the northwest flow across the region
will bring some clouds to kpsf and kpou Wednesday with kalb and
kgfl expected to remain mostly clear.

Winds will become light and variable to calm overnight with a
northeast winds at less than 10 knots developing Wednesday,

Outlook...

Wednesday night-saturday: patchy fog possible late each night/early
morning each day, otherwise no significant weather.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure will remain in control of our weather,
providing plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures
through Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal
levels Friday with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
southward towards the southeastern United States.

Relative humidity will recover to 90-100 percent tonight with widespread dew
formation and patchy fog expected (and areas of frost across the
southwest adirondacks). Relative humidity values drop back to 35-55 percent
Wednesday afternoon, lowest in valley areas.

Winds will become light/variable tonight. On Wednesday, north
to northeast winds increase to 5-10 mph.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ for the next seven days.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather over the next several days.

The next chance of widespread rainfall may be with a cold
frontal boundary approaching on Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...frost advisory from 4 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for nyz032-033-
042.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jlv
near term...iaa/jlv
short term...jlv

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