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fxus61 kaly 171436 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1036 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will build across the region from southeast
Canada today through Wednesday, bringing fair weather and
slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Temperatures will
moderate to above normal levels by the end of the week into the
weekend with dry weather continuing as the high drifts southward
into the mid Atlantic states.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 10:36 am EDT, after a chilly start and areas of valley
fog, a beautiful day. Skies are mostly clear. Temps have
rebounded to the 50s and 60s after this morning, with a number
of locations seeing lows in the 30s with 40s most locations.

Expect mostly sunny skies to continue today with late afternoon
temps reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in valleys, and upper
50s to mid 60s across higher terrain areas.

North to northeast winds will increase to 5-15 mph this
afternoon.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
frost advisory in effect for southwest Adirondacks from 4 am
until 8 am EDT Wednesday...

Tonight, clear skies with light winds should promote excellent
radiational cooling in most areas once again, with lows by
daybreak potentially dipping into the mid 30s across the
southwest Adirondacks, where a frost advisory has been issued.
Elsewhere, lows mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Patchy
clouds may graze portions of western New England and the Mid
Hudson valley toward sunrise ahead of an upper level disturbance
approaching from the north. Patchy fog will once again form
within River Valley locations before sunrise, especially across
the southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley and
southern Vermont.

Wednesday, patchy fog Burns off again between 7-9 am, followed
by a mix of sun and some clouds, with clouds more likely for a
period in the morning through midday across the Berkshires, northwest
CT and Mid Hudson valley in association with an upper level
disturbance tracking southward. High temps mainly 65-70 in
valley areas, and mid 50s to lower 60s for most higher
elevations.

Wednesday night-Thursday night, in the wake of the upper level
disturbance, an even drier air mass is expected to overspread
the region from the northeast, with pwat's Wednesday night into
Thursday possibly dropping to 0.25-0.5". This should allow for
an even colder night Wed night/Thu am, and may allow for areas
of frost to form across portions of the Lake George/Saratoga
region, as well as southern Vermont and the Berkshires. If this
potential increases, then frost advisories will be issued. Lows
mainly in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s. Thursday should remain
sunny with late day high temps similar to, or perhaps a couple
of degrees warmer than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s in
valleys, and 60-65 for most higher terrain. Slightly warmer for
Thursday night as a light southwest flow may persist, with lows
mainly in the 40s, although some 30s could still occur across
portions of the Adirondacks and perhaps eastern Catskills.

&&

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
upper ridging gradually builds east into our region through Sunday
with a slow and gradual warmup and mainly sunny, dry weather. Highs
Friday in the mid to upper 70s in the Hudson Valley and northwest CT but
around 70 to lower 70s elsewhere. Highs Saturday and Sunday in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Hudson Valley and northwest CT but mid 70s elsewhere.

There is an increasing consensus for the next organized upper energy
and associated frontal system to affect our region Sunday night and
Monday. The details and sensible weather in terms of timing of
clouds and rain is still uncertain but including general isolated to
scattered showers Sunday night and Monday. Highs Monday in the mid
70s to around 80 in the Hudson Valley and northwest CT but upper 60s to
lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure controlling the weather and a clear sky with light
to calm winds will prevail. Remaining fog should burn off by
13z.

Only a few clouds may form during the day, above 3000 feet.
VFR conditions should continue through the afternoon and evening.
A clear sky and winds trending to calm tonight will allow for
fog to form again. Including fog at kgfl after 04z and at kpsf
after 06z.

Light north to northeast flow at less than 10 kt this morning
and afternoon. Winds trend to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-saturday: patchy fog possible late each night/early
morning each day, otherwise no significant weather.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure will build across the region from southeast
Canada today through Wednesday, bringing fair weather and
slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Temperatures will
moderate to above normal levels by the end of the week into the
weekend with dry weather continuing as the high drifts southward
into the mid Atlantic states.

Relative humidity should fall to 35-45 percent this afternoon, then recover to
90-100 percent tonight with widespread dew formation and patchy
fog expected (and areas of frost across the southwest
adirondacks). Relative humidity values drop back to 40-60 percent Wednesday
afternoon, lowest in valley areas.

Winds will become north to northeast and increase to 5-15 mph
later this morning through this afternoon, then become
light/variable tonight. On Wednesday, north to northeast winds
increase to 5-10 mph.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ for the next seven days.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather over the next several days.

The next chance of widespread rainfall may be with a cold
frontal boundary approaching on Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...frost advisory from 4 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for nyz032-033-
042.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kl
near term...snd/kl

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