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fxus61 kaly 191948 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
348 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Synopsis...
temperatures will begin moderating to above normal levels Friday
into the weekend with dry weather continuing as high pressure
drifts into the southeastern United States, and a mild
southwesterly flow develops on Sunday. The next chance for rain
arrives Sunday night into Monday as a cold front approaches the
region.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 320 am EDT, temperatures have recovered into the upper 60s
to low 70s this afternoon under clear skies and light winds.
Some high level cirrus clouds may work their way into the
southern dacks this evening but most areas will remain clear.

Good radiational cooling conditions will be in place overnight
with temps expected to dip into the low to mid 40s. Some fog
will form again near bodies of water and may become locally
dense in spots.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
upper ridging will build into the region from the west Friday
through Saturday, as the surface high slides further southwest.
This will allow for some clouds to be reintroduced but still
remain mostly sunny both days. Temperatures will also warm to
above normal levels with highs on Friday in the low to mid 70s
and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Some spots in the Mid-Hudson
valley could surpass the 80 degree mark.

Sunday will be the warmest day of the week as south to southwest
flow strengthens ahead of a cold frontal boundary. Clouds will
increase throughout the day as temperatures warm into the low to
mid 80s.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the period starts out Sunday night our area still in a warm sector
ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region.
Models have come into better agreement with regards to the timing
and placement of the associated upper trough farther upstream over
the upper Great Lakes. There has been a slowing trend in the
expected arrival of showers ahead of the front, so will lower pops
to slight chance north and west of Albany. Most of the area will
remain dry until Monday.

It appears we will finally get some much needed rainfall on Monday,
as a pre-frontal trough and cold front move eastward across the
region. A progressive, but fairly deep upper level trough will
provide large scale ascent coincident with the frontal passage. So
have increased pops to likely across most of the region. At this
time, models are forecasting very limited instability, so have only
mentioned slight chance of thunder for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. It will still be mild on Monday (75-80 in valleys), but not
as warm as Sunday due to the added cloud cover and showers around.

A few lingering showers will be possible Monday evening as the upper
level trough axis passes through, but a drying trend is expected
overnight. Dry and seasonably cooler weather is expected on Tuesday,
as high pressure builds in behind the departing trough. The high is
forecast to be right over our region Tuesday night, providing clear
skies and cool temperatures.

Models start to diverge Wednesday into Thursday, as the GFS is
already indicating the next trough quickly approaching from the west
with showers developing, while the European model (ecmwf) still has ridging in place
and dry conditions through Thursday. The CMC is in between with
regards to timing. Overall, the guidance seems to be having
difficulty resolving the strength of the upper level ridge over the
southeast Continental U.S.. so will lean towards the CMC at this time, with showers
holding off until Wednesday night/Thursday.

&&

Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will bring mainly VFR weather through the taf
period ending 20/18z. Chances for fog increase once again after
08z/Fri, with best chances at kgfl and kpsf, where LIFR/vlifr
conditions are likely. Fog development is a bit more uncertain
at kalb and kpou, as a light south to southwest wind develops
within the lower levels of the atmosphere. This may allow any
fog which forms along the Hudson River to drift into kpou toward
12z/Fri. The fog may remain north and east of kalb through
12z/Fri.

With a high pressure ridge almost overhead, winds will be
mainly light/variable through tonight, although have trended to
southerly at kgfl and may trend into the south kalb this
afternoon. Westerly winds at 5 to 10 kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
temperatures will begin moderating to above normal levels Friday
into the weekend with dry weather continuing as high pressure
drifts into the southeastern United States, and a mild
southwesterly flow develops on Sunday. The next chance for rain
arrives Sunday night into Monday as a cold front approaches the
region.

Relative humidity values will recover to 90 to 100 percent tonight. Relative humidity values
will be 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon.

Winds will be variable at less than 15 mph through Friday.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ through at least Sunday.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather through at least Sunday.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will be with a cold
frontal boundary and upper trough moving through the area on
Monday and Monday night.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jlv
near term...jlv
short term...jlv

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