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fxus61 kaly 201955 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
355 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

high pressure will build in from the mid Atlantic region
tonight. This area of high pressure will yield above normal
temperatures this weekend, as it slowly drifts eastward off the
coast. A cold front will bring a chance of showers on Monday with
cooler temperatures for the mid week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 354 PM EDT...high pressure will build in from the mid
Atlantic states over the northeast tonight with clear/mostly
clear skies and light to calm winds. Some patchy fog will likely
develop along and near the major river valleys. It will be
cool, but not as cool as the previous nights despite decent
radiational cooling conditions.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, except in the
Mohawk Valley into the capital district and down to the Mid
Hudson valley and northwest CT, where some lower 50s are likely.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
tomorrow...a super start to the last weekend of astronomical
Summer in 2019. Mid and upper level heights increase across the
region, as high pressure is quasi stationary near the mid
Atlantic coast. H850 temps increase above normal, as the actual
values will be +14c to close to +17c from north/northwest to
south/southeast across the region. Highs will be 10 to almost 15
degrees above normal with highs in the 80-85f range in the
valleys, and 70s over the higher terrain.

Saturday night...the winds will be light from the south to
southwest with a few cirrus around. The return flow from the sfc
high to the south and east of the region will allow for milder
temps than Fri night. Lows will be in the 50s with a few upper
40s near the eastern Adirondacks. Some patchy fog will still be
possible in the immediate river valleys.

Sunday will feature continued sunny, beautiful weather with
temps close to 15 degrees above normal with the return south to
southwest flow from the anticyclone near the mid-Atlantic coast.
H850 temps will continue to be +1 to +2 stdevs above normal
with highs in the lower to mid 80s in the lower elevations, and
over the higher terrain mainly 70s.

Sunday night into Monday...the h500 ridge slowly breaks down
along the East Coast Sunday night with a strengthening south to
southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. It will be
downright mild with lows in the lower to mid 60s, and upper 50s
to around 60f over the mountains. The low-level convergence
ahead of the front and the upper trough increases with the
greatest threat for showers from Albany north and west in the
afternoon. The showalter stability indices lower to 0c to -2c
ahead of the front so a slight chance of thunderstorms is
possible. Quantitative precipitation forecast looks paltry still in the couple hundredths to
quarter inch range. Highs will continue to be above normal over
the majority of the forecast area.


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the period starts out Monday night with a cold front east of our
region over eastern New England, but an upper level low moving
through upstate New York. While moisture will be limited, mainly scattered
showers are expected from the upper low. With the clouds and showers
around, low temperatures will be mild for late September. A few
showers may linger through Tuesday morning, especially across higher
terrain areas as the upper low tracks into northern New England.
Temperatures will be much cooler compared to Monday, with lower
humidity levels as well.

A dry period is then expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday
night, an area of high pressure builds in and drifts eastward across
the region. The high will then shift eastward off the coast by
Thursday morning, with a warm southerly flow developing. Heights
aloft are forecast to become more zonal, with a weakening cold front
moving through during the day Thursday. Models have come into better
agreement with the timing. With limited moisture, will only forecast
low chance pops at this time. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the
front, with 70s in most valley locations.

Another stretch of dry weather should then occur from Thursday night
through Friday, as another anomalously strong upper level ridge
builds in across the region.


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
high pressure in place will continue to bring VFR conditions
with mainly clear skies and light winds through the next 24

Patchy fog will once again be possible at kpsf/kgfl overnight,
with best chances after 06z/Sat. IFR/LIFR conditions are likely
with any fog.

West-northwest winds around 5 kt today will turn mainly calm
overnight then remain light and variable on Saturday.


Saturday to Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Breezy likely rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers.
Tuesday night to wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure will build in from the mid Atlantic region
tonight. This area of high pressure will yield above normal
temperatures this weekend, as it slowly drifts eastward off the
coast. A cold front will bring a chance of showers on Monday.

The Max relative humidity values will be 85 to 100 percent Saturday and Sunday
mornings with patchy fog and dew formation. The minimum relative humidity
values will be 35 to 50 percent Saturday afternoon.

The winds will be light and variable in direction at 5 mph or
less or calm tonight. The winds will be light from the south to
southwest at 10 mph or less tomorrow into tomorrow night.


no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ the next 7 days.

The next chance of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be Monday into Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts will range
from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch in the hsa.
Flows will remain below normal for late September.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...wasula
short term...wasula

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