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fxus61 kaly 172024 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
424 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will remain in control of our weather,
providing plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures
through Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal
levels Friday with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
southward towards the southeastern United States.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
a frost advisory is in effect for the southwest Adirondacks
from 4 am until 8 am EDT Wednesday...

As of 300 PM EDT, latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows
cloud-free skies across New York and most of Pennsylvania with
high pressure in place. Some cu is evident on either side of the
high. Temperatures across our region have warmed from the 30s to
40s into the 60s and low 70s this afternoon with plentiful
sunshine.

Tonight, under clear skies and light winds, temperatures should
fall into the 30s and 40s once again, but should be a few
degrees cooler than this morning. A frost advisory remains in
place for the southwest dacks overnight where temperatures are
expected to fall into the low and mid 30s. Expect some areas of
frost in the advisory area, with some patchy frost in other high
terrain locations. Patchy fog will also be possible, mainly in
the valleys.

&&

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
throughout the short term, high pressure will gradually shift
south-southwest towards the Tennessee Valley and southeastern US
as tc Humberto slides further northeast into the northern
Atlantic.

This will result in continued dry weather and cooler than normal
temps through Thursday. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will
be in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be much cooler
than normal Wednesday night as most locations will see values in
the upper 30s to low 40s. The higher terrain may need a frost
advisory as well. Thursday night, low temps should be in the
40s.

Temperatures begin moderating towards
above normal warmth on Friday as the high finally becomes
centered south of the region. This will allow for some clouds
to return, though most should still see more sun than clouds.
Afternoon highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
well above normal temperatures this weekend with continued dry
weather as ridging remains in control. Guidance has the upper ridge
axis to our west over the Great Lakes region at the start of the
period. The ridge is forecast to gradually shift eastward and dampen
over the weekend. While at the surface, the high will be over our
region and is expected to shift eastward off the coast by Sunday
morning. Looking at deep southwest flow across the region Sunday
into Monday with a trough approaching from the west. This
approaching trough and associated cold front will bring the first
chances for rain in nearly a week late Sunday night into Monday
evening.

Highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to run 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with lower 80s below 1000 feet and 70s above that. Monday
will not be quite as warm due to the increase cloud cover and
chances for showers. A cooler and more seasonable airmass returns
with the passage of the front for Tuesday.

&&

Aviation /21z Tuesday through Sunday/...
high pressure ridging from eastern Canada to New York will bring
mainly clear skies and light wind. A few clouds may form this
afternoon, primarily vicinity of kpsf. VFR conditions should
continue through most of the evening. A clear sky and winds
trending to calm tonight will allow for fog to form again.
Including fog at kgfl after 05z and at kpsf after 07z with IFR
visibility due to fog expected at these sites. Some light mist
possible at kalb and kpou for a couple of hours around sunrise.

North to northeast winds 5 to 15 kt today. Winds trend to calm
tonight. Northeast winds tomorrow at 5 to 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-saturday: patchy fog possible late each night/early
morning each day, otherwise no significant weather.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure will remain in control of our weather,
providing plenty of sunshine and cooler than normal temperatures
through Thursday. Temperatures will begin moderating to above normal
levels Friday with dry weather continuing as the high drifts
southward towards the southeastern United States.

Relative humidity will recover to 90-100 percent tonight with widespread dew
formation and patchy fog expected (and areas of frost across the
southwest adirondacks). Relative humidity values drop back to 35-55 percent
Wednesday afternoon, lowest in valley areas.

Winds will become light/variable tonight. On Wednesday, north
to northeast winds increase to 5-10 mph.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ for the next seven days.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather over the next several days.

The next chance of widespread rainfall may be with a cold
frontal boundary approaching on Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...frost advisory from 4 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for nyz032-033-
042.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jlv
near term...jlv

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