Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 141144
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
644 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019
after another very cold morning, afternoon temperatures will be
a little milder than yesterday, but still below normal, with a
mostly cloudy sky. Another Arctic cold front will pass through
the region on Friday, with breezy conditions and some snow
showers for northern areas. Behind this front, another round of
very cold temperatures will be in place for the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 644 am EST...1033 hpa high pressure area is located east
of the region over eastern and northern New England and
continues to slide eastward. Meanwhile, infrared satellite imagery
shows southwest flow in the mid to upper levels is bringing in
plenty of moisture, with high clouds already in place across the
entire region thanks to some strong jet dynamics in place. This
moisture aloft is streaming ahead of a cold front located over
the Great Lakes, with a surface warm front lifting across
eastern Ontario, St. Lawrence Valley and the north country.
Despite the clouds, it's another very cold morning, with
temperatures starting out in the teens. Although it will remain
cloudy for most of the day due to the extensive high clouds
heading into the area, a southerly breeze will pick by mid
morning. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the 30s
across the whole area by afternoon (upper 20s for the highest
terrain). With limited moisture in the low levels and not much
forcing in place, not expecting any precipitation for today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
initial cold front approaching the area will be falling apart
as it reaches the northeast for tonight. Some lake effect
activity looks to develop with the southwest flow at low to mid
levels, but this trajectory will keep any of the activity away
from our area for tonight, with snow showers heading towards the
St. Lawrence Valley. As a result, it should be dry for tonight,
with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures will be in the
mid 20s for lows. While milder than the past few nights, these
are still a little below normal for mid November.
On Friday, a stronger Arctic cold front will be dropping towards
the area from southern Canada. This northern stream system won't
have a lot of moisture associated with it, but will be
accompanied by a very strong thickness gradient. With the
decent forcing, a few snow showers look to accompany its
passage, mainly for areas north and west of the capital region
during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Any snow
showers look very brief and amounts will be an inch or less and
mainly limited to just the western Adirondacks. A decent
pressure gradient should allow for some gusty winds to accompany
this boundary, especially immediately behind the front, with
some gusts to 25 mph. Temps should spike into the mid 30s to mid
40s ahead of the front for Friday, but colder temps will
quickly return behind the front for Friday night with lows
ranging from near zero in the Adirondacks to around 20 in the
Mid Hudson valley.
Strong high pressure will move across the area for Saturday into
Saturday night. This will allow for clear skies and decreasing
winds. Despite the sun, it will be very cold on Saturday thanks
to 850 hpa of -10 to -14 c. Highs only will reach the 20s to low
30s and we could challenge a few record low Max temps once
again. Saturday night will be another frigid night with lows in
the single digits and teens again.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
we begin the long term with an well anchored surface high
pressure across New England. This should allow for a tranquil
end of the weekend under ample sunshine. Temperatures, while are
expected to be above freezing, should still average below
normal with mainly 30s expected.
The complex aspect of this forecast starts Sunday night. Global
model consensus all suggest a coastal storm will evolve off the
Carolina coastline and begins its slow track up the coastline.
However, its impact for the local area remain in question as the
GFS/ggem/icon global models are the most aggressive with clouds
and probabilities of precipitation with the European model (ecmwf) the furthest
east with the coastal wave. We will increase cloud coverage and
bring about low chance probabilities from southeast to
northwest. This trend will continue into Monday as well. Thermal
profiles suggest a wintry mixture is possible Sunday night
through Monday with rain/sleet/snow.
Then the confidence continues to lower Monday night through
Tuesday as an increasing southwest flow regime aloft with
approaching upstream long wave trough axis will keep clouds and
low chance pops in the forecast with slight moderation in the
temperatures. Then Wednesday is perhaps the lowest confidence
forecast as the European model (ecmwf) takes upstream strong pv-anomaly around
the base of the trough and develops another coastal storm with
higher impacts for the region with the ggem/GFS/icon global
models much less of a signal and less amplified. Ensemble
approach favors cyclonic vorticity across the region with clouds
and low chance pops at this time. Thermal profiles, well, we
will place a rain/snow mixture at this time with better
potential of mixing across the higher terrain and mainly rain
for valley locations.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will likely prevail across all taf sites through
the forecast period with high pressure in place. Mainly a
broken mid-level cloud deck is expected with some hints of a
stratus deck overnight, however, left this as a scattered deck
at this time.
Winds will be light and variable at 5 kts or less early, then
winds will become southerly increasing to 5 to 12 kts.
Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: low operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn...sleet.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sleet.
cold weather is expected today and tonight. A few passing snow
showers are expected across northern areas on Friday with an
Arctic cold front, along with gusty northwesterly winds. Dry
weather is expected over the weekend with more cold
temperatures. Next widespread precipitation will be at some
point next week.
no Hydro issues are anticipated through early next week.
Very cold temperatures are expected again today and tonight.
Although temperatures will moderate slightly on Friday, a
passing Arctic cold front will return another round of cold
temperatures for the weekend. Little precipitation is expected
with this boundary and what little does occur will be only
across northern areas and will be in the form of snow showers.
Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be at some
point during next week.
With the cold temperatures in place, some ice will form on
shallow bodies of water (mainly non-moving ponds and small
lakes). Otherwise, river and streams levels will generally hold
steady into early next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.
the kenx radar will be down this week for the refurbishment of
the transmitter. Please see our webpage and the public
information statement for more details.