Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kaly 170512 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
112 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

high pressure will build in from southeast Ontario over New
York and New England tonight with cool temperatures and patchy
fog. The surface high will bring continued fair weather and
slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the mid week.
Temperatures will moderate back above normal by the end of the
week into the weekend with dry weather continuing.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1230 am EDT, nearly cloudless skies regionwide with the
exception of a few cloud patches close to the I-84 corridor in
the Mid Hudson valley. In areas where winds have trended to near
calm, temps have dropped off into the lower/mid 40s, while
remaining in the lower/mid 50s where some wind persists.

Still expecting patchy valley fog to develop through daybreak,
which could become locally dense. This potential looks to be
greatest across portions of the southern Adirondacks, upper
Hudson Valley including The Glens falls and Saratoga regions,
as well as the Housatonic Valley and CT River Valley.

By daybreak, expect low temperatures to fall into the mid/upper
30s across portions of the southwest Adirondacks and sheltered
areas of southern VT, with mainly 40s elsewhere.

Patchy frost will be possible across portions of northern
Herkimer/Hamilton and northern Warren counties toward sunrise,
away from any lakes/streams.


Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday/...
tomorrow...a nice day is expected tomorrow with slightly cooler
than normal temperatures, as the sfc high builds in over New York and
New England. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone will
yield sunny/mostly sunny skies after the patchy mist/fog Burns
off in the morning. H925 temps will be +12c to +15c, as high
temps will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys, and
upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain.

Tue night...another cool and tranquil night with similar
radiational cooling conditions as tonight. Clear/mostly clear
skies, light to calm winds with a very dry air mass, as temps
should fall once again into the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. The
growing season officially ends for the southern Adirondacks sept
21st. If temps fall further into the mid 30s or colder over a
large portion of northern Herkimer, Hamilton, northern Fulton
and northern Warren counties, then frost headlines may be

Wednesday...the sfc high remains anchored near southeast Quebec
and northern New England with northerly flow established aloft.
Boundary layer temps may be a tad cooler with a weak disturbance
/moisture starved/ moving across New England. H925 temps will
only be about +11c to +14c, as Max temps with some mixing will
struggle to reach the 70s. Expect highs for locations below 1000
ft mean sea level to be in the mid to upper 60s with a few stray 70f
readings, and upper 50s to mid 60s for locations above 1000 ft
mean sea level.

Wed night to Thursday...persistent, dry pattern continues with
another cool night with widespread upper 30s to mid 40s for
lows. Portions of western New England will have to be monitored
for patchy/areas of frost, as temps cool more in later
forecasts. Highs moderate slightly Thursday with the sfc high
centered near eastern New England. A blend of the machine
guidance yields 60s to lower 70s over the forecast area.


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
rather quiet weather continues into the long term period with high
and low temperatures warming above normal, reaching about 10 degrees
above normal this weekend into early next week. This warm-up is a
result of our upper level ridge and surface high pressure that has
dominated our weather pattern for the past week shifting into New
England. This pattern shift will lead to strengthening southwest
flow and increasing warm air advection as our next cold front slowly
approaches eastern New York/western New England Sunday night into Monday.
After nearly a week without measurable rain, we will see an
increasing chance for showers as we head into the new work week. Read
on for details.

We begin the period Thursday night with a 590dm large scale upper
level ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states dominating the
weather pattern for areas east of the Mississippi River. With a 1025-
1030hpa surface high pressure centered off over New England, we
expect mainly sunny/clear skies to continue over eastern New York and
western New England as we head into Friday. With the ridge axis
gradually shifting into the Great Lakes, upper level flow around the
periphery of the upper level ridge looks to turn west-northwesterly
which should allow warmer air to spill into the northeast. This
should result in temperatures warming above normal with highs
reaching into the mid to upper 70s on Friday. Overnight lows should
stay mild only cooling into the low to mid 50s.

As our ridge axis continues progressing eastward Friday night and
Saturday, we expect temperatures to continue warming above normal.
Most of the guidance continues to suggest a warm front will move
through our region during the day on Saturday as the ridge axis
finally crosses east of our area into the New England. This looks to
should result in strengthening southwesterly flow as our area enters
the warm sector with 850mb isotherms increasing to +14c to +16c
which is about 1 to 2 Standard deviation above normal for mid-
September according to the gefs/naefs. In addition, the
strengthening upper level flow and continued mostly sunny skies
should allow deeper boundary layer mixing and high temperature
should reach well into the 70s to even near 80 on Saturday and
Sunday. While we note a few weak vort maxes rounding the top of the
ridge, we continue to show mostly sunny skies due to lackluster mid-
level moisture.

By Sunday night, a cold front associated with an occluded mid-
latitude cyclone over Ontario will be gradually heading eastward
towards the northeast. The pressure gradient between the surface
high pressure now off the New England coast and the approaching
front should lead to slightly breezy conditions overnight and more
so into Monday. With increased the winds a bit for Monday to show
gusts up to 15-20mph. Strengthening southwesterly flow will also
increase the dew points which should reach into the low 60s making
it feel more humid Sunday night and especially Monday. The best
height falls hold off until late Sunday night into Monday so we held
off chance pops for areas north/west of the capital district until
this period. Moisture again is not overly impressive and with the
best forcing remaining well north of our area, we capped pops to
only chance and kept the highest probabilities for areas north of I-
90. We only introduced slight chance pops for the Mid-Hudson valley,
Catskills and northwest CT given the lower confidence that showers reach
these areas. Temperatures should stay warmer than normal Sunday
night and even on Monday. Overnight lows Sunday night will be very
mild only falling into the upper 50s to low 60s thanks to cloud
coverage. Given the increasing chances for showers and clouds,
high temperatures on Monday could be a few degrees cooler than
Sunday but still remain above normal reaching into mid-upper 70s
once again.


Aviation /05z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure controlling the weather and a clear sky with light
to calm winds will prevail through daybreak. The clear sky and
near calm winds will allow temperatures to reach dew points and
temperatures will cool enough so that fog should form around
rivers, swamps, lakes and ponds. Included IFR fog at kgfl and
kpsf with even some intervals of IFR fog at kalb from 09z-11z
and MVFR for at kpou from 09z-11z. Ceilings will be 200 feet or
less at kgfl and kpsf occasionally in the fog.

After 11z-12z all fog should burn off and the only a few clouds
may form during the day, above 3000 feet. VFR conditions should
continue through the afternoon and evening.

Light and variable to calm winds overnight with a light north
to northeast flow at less than 10 kt this morning and afternoon.


Tuesday-saturday: no operational impact. Patchy fog possible
late each night/early morning each day.


Fire weather...
high pressure will build in from southeast Ontario
over New York and New England tonight with cool temperatures and
patchy fog. The surface high will bring continued fair weather and
slightly cooler than normal temperatures through the mid week.
Temperatures will moderate back above normal by the end of the week
into the weekend with dry weather continuing.

The relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent by late tonight
with with dew and patchy fog formation likely. The relative humidity values
will lower to 35 to 50 percent Tuesday afternoon, and will
increase close to 100 percent Wednesday morning with more dew
and fog formation.

The winds will become light to calm tonight, and they will be
northerly at 5 to 15 mph on Tuesday, and will become light from
the north to northeast at 5 mph or less Tuesday night.


no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ for the next seven days.

There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather over the next several days.

The next chance of widespread rainfall will be with a cold
frontal boundary will be on Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...iaa/kl/wasula

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations