Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 151145
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
645 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
milder temperatures are expected today ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. A few passing snow showers and
flurries are possible late in the day and into the evening with an
Arctic cold front. Behind this front, much colder temperatures and
dry conditons will return for the weekend. A coastal system may
bring some unsettled weather to the region for next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 644 am EST...a potent upper level shortwave is located
over far northern Ontario near James Bay. Meanwhile, an Arctic
cold front associated with this shortwave extends south across
the Great Lakes and upper Midwest this morning. Our region
remains downstream of these features, with a west to southwest
flow in place at all levels. Infrared satellite imagery shows plenty
of lake-induced clouds in place across western, central and
northern New York state. The coverage of stratocu clouds over
our area has been decreasing early this morning, with clouds now
limited western Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks and Lake George-
During the morning hours, skies look to be mostly sunny over
most of the area, with just the Adirondacks and Lake George area
continuing to see a mostly cloudy sky. With a southerly flow in
place, temperatures will be warming up more than recent days,
although it is still below normal for mid November. Highs
should reach the mid 30s to mid 40s by afternoon for most spots,
with the mildest temps across the Mid Hudson valley and northwest CT.
The Arctic cold front will be approaching the area for late in
the day into this evening as the upper level shortwave slides
eastward across northern Quebec. Although it should be dry for
most of the day, some snow showers and flurries ahead of this
front will start to expand into the western Adirondacks for late
today. The best forcing and moisture will be located north of
the area, so not anticipating any stronger squalls across our
area, despite the decent thermal gradient associated with the
surface boundary. Winds will start to pick up this afternoon
with the increasing surface gradient, with some westerly gusts
exceeding 25 mph at times, especially for the high terrain.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
Arctic cold front will continue dropping across the area this
evening and will be located south of the area by after midnight.
3km hrrr/NAM suggest that a broken line of snow showers and
flurries will continue to drop south through the area, but
limited moisture should keep these mainly light in intensity and
brief in duration. Best chance will be from the Mohawk Valley
and capital region on north and west. Can't rule out some light
dustings in spots, especially across colder and non-paved
surfaces. Winds will switch to the northwest behind the front
and continue to be gusty, with some gusts still exceeding 25 mph
through midnight or so. Temps will drop quickly behind the front
and lows late tonight will be in the teens (some single digits
for the Adirondacks and greens).
Strong area of surface high pressure will quickly build in for
Saturday and will be passing by to the north. This should allow
for diminishing wind on Saturday with plenty of sunshine thanks
to strong subsidence. Despite the sun, it will be very cold, as
a shallow and very cold Arctic air mass will move into the
region. Mixing will only reach 950 hpa, keeping temps very cold.
Highs will only be in the 20s to low 30s and some record low
maxs may be challenged across the region.
High pressure will make for a very cold night on Saturday night.
Clear skies and light winds will lead to a night with lows in
the single digits to teens across the region.
The high pressure area will exit across New England for Sunday,
but it will still be close enough to keep dry weather with a
partly to mostly sunny sky. Temps will moderate somewhat, but
still be well below normal, with afternoon highs only in the
upper 20s to upper 30s.
Clouds will finally increase from southeast to northwest on
Sunday night as a coastal system starts to approach from the
south off the eastern Seaboard. Temperatures look to fall off
into the 20s during the evening, but will likely hold steady for
the second half of the night as clouds increase. Some light
precipitation may start to move into the region from the east
for late in the overnight, but this is still uncertain at this
time, as it will depend on the exact track of this system. This
precip could be a light wintry mix, especially for the higher
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the main forecast concern/challenge during the period is the
potential for a wintry mix of precipitation (including some freezing
rain) Monday into Monday evening associated with a storm off the
East Coast. The parent cyclone is forecast to be well offshore,
however moisture/forcing along the northwest periphery of this
system could bring some light precip in our region, mainly across
the eastern half of the area. Differences in model guidance
including thermal profiles, make this a difficult forecast. Based on
the synoptic scale setup, there will be low-level cold air in place
leftover from the weekend resulting from high pressure retreating
into the Canadian Maritimes. So, even as warmer air aloft moves in
there is expected to be the potential for sleet and/or freezing
rain. Details as to which ptype may be favored are unclear at this
time. Overall quantitative precipitation forecast does appear to be light, as we will be on the
northwest fringe of the storm system. So will continue to mention
the potential for some light mixed precip in the severe weather potential statement. Valley
locations would likely experience a changeover to rain as the
surface temps warm above freezing during the day Monday. Light mixed
precip could continue into Monday evening, especially for higher
Colder air aloft looks to move in late Monday night into early
Tuesday, as a upper level short wave moves overhead and the ocean
storm moves farther out to sea. This will allow for any mixed precip
to change to scattered snow showers with some minor accumulations
possible in some spots. Another upper trough will already start
approaching from the Great Lakes late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This system is expected to bring scattered mountain snow showers and
valley rain/snow showers into Wednesday, as the core of the upper
trough moves eastward across the region during the day.
Upper level ridging should then develop by Thursday with mainly dry
conditions. However, a west-northwest flow aloft could result in
some Minor Lake effect/upslope snow showers for areas north and west
of the capital district. Overall temperatures still look to be below
normal, but not as cold as it has been recently.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour taf
period ending 12z Saturday. Mid level clouds remain in place over
kgfl but have cleared from kalb southward. Clouds over central New
York will gradually shift eastward today back to near kalb, but
generally remain north of kpsf/kpou.
An Arctic cold front will then push southward from Canada during the
evening. There is limited moisture with this system, with just some
scattered snow showers possible at kgfl but only flurries at
kalb/kpsf. Winds will abruptly shift to the north-northwest and
become gusty behind the cold front between around 02z-04z Saturday.
Winds today will become west-southwest and increase to around 8-12
kt by late morning. Occasional gusts near 20 kt will be possible,
especially at kalb. Winds will shift to the north-northwest behind
the Arctic cold front late this evening, with an increase in wind to
around 12-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt at all sites.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of freezing rain...sleet.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...fzra.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...shsn.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...shsn.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
a few passing snow showers are expected across northern areas
today with an Arctic cold front, along with gusty northwesterly
winds. Some gusts over 25 mph are possible late today into
tonight. Dry weather is expected over the weekend with more
cold temperatures and less windy conditions. Next widespread
precipitation will be during the early to middle portion of next
no Hydro issues are anticipated through early next week.
Although temperatures will moderate slightly today, a passing
Arctic cold front will return another round of cold temperatures
for the weekend. Little precipitation is expected with this
boundary and what little does occur will be only across northern
areas and will be in the form of snow showers. Next chance for
widespread precipitation looks to be early to mid next week
thanks to a coastal storm and exact amounts and precipitation
types are still uncertain at this time.
With the cold temperatures in place, some ice will form on
shallow bodies of water (mainly non-moving ponds and small
lakes). Otherwise, river and streams levels will generally hold
steady into early next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.