Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 160446
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1246 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
an upper level disturbance and a frontal boundary will bring
some scattered light rain showers to the region tonight into
Monday morning. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes
region Monday afternoon with fair weather and slightly cooler
than normal temperatures. The surface high will bring lots of
sunshine and dry weather through the mid week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1240 am EDT, still plenty of clouds from around the I-90
corridor and points south, while some breaks in the clouds have
developed to the north. Temps in some northern areas have
dropped into the upper 40s/lower 50s where skies have cleared
and winds trended to calm.
Isolated sprinkles have decreased in areal coverage in a band
south of I-90. Latest near-term hi-res models suggest there may
be another uptick in coverage of these light showers/sprinkles
closer to daybreak as another weak impulse tracks east from the
Great Lakes region. These light showers/sprinkles would appear
to be mainly south of the I-90 corridor, with dry conditions
near and north of I-90. Lack of low-level moisture and
convergence coupled with only weak upper level support will
yield mainly light pcpn amounts of a trace to less than a tenth
for areas south of I-90 through daybreak.
Lows will not be as cool as this morning, but still mid 40s to
around 50 over the southern Adirondacks, Lake George region and
southern VT, and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
Short term /6 am this morning through Wednesday/...
tomorrow...the disturbance will be passing south and east of the
I-90 corridor in the morning. Some isolated to scattered showers
will be possible in the morning from the capital region/Berkshires
south and east with clearing skies in the afternoon. Pcpn will
be light again where the showers occur. An increase to more sun
than clouds occurs by the afternoon. Weak cold advection occurs
in the wake of the the short-wave trough. Highs will be near or
slightly below normal with upper 60s to lower 70s in the
valleys, and 60s with a few upper 50s over the higher terrain.
Mon night...high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes region
with clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. Ideal
radiational cooling will occur with temps falling into the 40s
with some upper 30s in the Adirondack park and southern greens.
Patchy radiational mist will form over or near bodies of water.
Patches of frost may be possible too in the northern zones.
Tue to Wed...high pressure will dominate with mostly sunny
conditions during the day and cool conditions are night. The sfc
anticyclone will become established over eastern Canada and the
northeast. The h500 flow will amplify with north to northwest
flow aloft. Temps will trend from slightly below normal values
Tuesday to near normal values Wednesday for mid September.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the period starts out Wednesday night into Thursday with an
anomalously strong ridge of high pressure aloft building across
the region. This ridge is expected to remain in place through
next weekend. The gefs is forecasting 500 mb height anomalies of
+1 to +2 stdev through the entire long term period ending
This pattern will result in dry conditions, abundant sunshine,
and temperatures warming to above normal levels as the air mass
gradually warms. Initially temperatures will be seasonable
through Thursday. Then, guidance from both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
indicating temperatures warming to as much as 10 degrees above
normal for daytime highs by the weekend.
Temperatures look to cool off at night, with lows mainly in the
40s and 50s through the period due to near normal pwats and
generally clear skies. Due to lengthening nights, areas of fog
will likely develop each night into the early morning hours
especially in favored locations near bodies of water.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
an upper level disturbance and a weak frontal boundary will
bring some light showers to parts of the region tonight into
Monday morning. Conditions are generally expected to remain VFR,
with mid level cigs gradually lowering during this time. Widely
scattered showers expected at kalb/kpsf, with mention of vcsh.
Due to later arrival, placed a prob30 at kpou from 12z-18z
Monday for scattered showers and possible brief MVFR conditions.
Skies will clear Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds in
from the north.
Monday night: no operational impact. Patchy fog.
Tuesday to friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
a fast moving upper level disturbance and a frontal boundary
will bring some scattered light rain showers to the region
tonight into Monday morning. High pressure will build in from
the Great Lakes region Monday afternoon with fair weather and
slightly cooler than normal temperatures. The surface high will
bring lots of sunshine and dry weather through the mid week.
The relative humidity values will increase to close to 100 percent Monday
morning, and lower to 50 to 75 percent during the afternoon, and
then increase 85 to 100 percent Tuesday morning with dew and fog
The winds will be west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight, and
then be north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph Monday afternoon and
become light to calm Tuesday morning.
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ the next seven days.
There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor...and their is a high probability of
dry weather the next several days.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.