Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 172325
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
725 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
a strong storm over New England late today will move northeast
to the Canadian Maritimes late tonight and Friday, while high
pressure builds toward our area from the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Showers will diminish this evening, then skies will
clear on Friday. Friday night will be clear and chilly with
areas of frost, then the weekend looks to be dry and seasonably
Near term /through Friday/...
storm is exiting off Maine now but upper energy and moisture
contributing to areas of showers and light rain in areas of
terrain and sprinkles in the valleys. Widespread clouds and the
slowly decreasing coverage of rain, along with the gusty west to
northwest winds will prevent temperatures from dropping quite a
much as they could through the night. Just some minor
adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and rain chances through
the night. Previous afd has a few more details and is below...
The entire column will gradually dry out overnight as this
storm system moves off to the east. Therefore we expect showers
to gradually diminish this evening, with most of the rain ending
in the Hudson Valley by around sunset, but lingering for awhile
longer over higher terrain especially east of the Hudson River
where upslope should keep showers going through the evening.
Temperatures should remain warm enough for the precipitation to
remain all rain, except for perhaps the highest elevations above
3000 feet where a little snow could mix in. Low temperatures in
most of our area will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
A Flood Watch will remain in effect through this evening mainly
for areas north of I-90. A couple of river points will be
cresting near flood stage during the next few hours in that area.
Otherwise, no new flooding is expected to develop as rain rates
have settled down to less than a quarter of an inch per hour.
Short term /Friday night through Saturday/...
quiet weather can be expected through this period as high
pressure will build eastward across the area. Many areas may
start the day mostly cloudy Friday, but continued drying of the
column will result in at least some sunshine for all areas
Friday afternoon. Friday night will be quite chilly with frost
forming in many locations as lows fall into the 20s across the
north country and normally colder locations in eastern New York and
western New England, with mostly lower and mid 30s from the
capital district southward. Saturday will be sunny with slowly
moderating temperatures as high pressure moves east of the area.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
main change is what if any impact from the tropical entity in
the Gulf of Mexico will for our local region and the next potent
jet comes ashore and digs another vigorous trough for the
center part of the country.
The National Hurricane Center along with global model consensus
takes what may be the next tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico
and tracks this system northeast across the southeast conus.
Meanwhile, a short wave trough axis tracking across the plains
states will likely pick up this tropical feature and track it
across the middle Atlantic region overnight Saturday into
Sunday. At the minimum, clouds associated with this tropical
feature will likely move across the sky during this time frame.
The best potential for showers appears to remain just south of
the area, although the European model (ecmwf) is the most aggressive with showers
on Sunday. Near seasonable temperatures are expected Saturday
night into Sunday despite the cloud coverage.
Then the next vigorous jet comes ashore across the Pacific
shoreline and assists with a development of a deep trough
through early next week. The downstream results will be a ridge
building across the eastern conus and moderating tempertures
Monday into Tuesday. So a rather dry and above seasonable
temperatures expected Monday to be followed by clouds increasing
from the west and south overnight Monday into Tuesday.
The best window for additional wet conditions appears later
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The GFS/ggem are the most
progressive with a frontal movement with some hints of a surface
wave development across the mid-Atlantic and the European model (ecmwf) is
stronger with the wave development and slowing down the frontal
progress into Wednesday. For now, we will keep the pops/wx grid
into the 30-60% range through the period. Temperatures will
likely be much cooler with the clouds and rainfall.
Aviation /23z Thursday through Tuesday/...
the storm is exiting off Maine this evening. Lingering clouds
and area of light rain and sprinkles exist over eastern New York and
western New England. As the storm continues to exit, the
coverage of rain and sprinkles will decrease through the night.
Keeping vcsh at all taf sites through 06z.
Ceilings have been just over 3000 feet and will remain just
above 3000 feet through the night. However, kpsf has MVFR
ceilings that will take most of the night to lift, perhaps VFR
by around 15z Friday morning. Visibilities should remain VFR,
even in light rain or sprinkles.
Ceilings continue to lift slowly through the day Friday but no
break up of the clouds to scattered or few through the
West to northwest winds at 10 to 15 kt this evening will
diminish to around 10 kt through daybreak but some gusts to
around 20 kt possible this evening at kalb and kpsf. Northwest
winds increase to 10 to 15 kt Friday morning with gusts around
20 kt at all taf sites by afternoon.
Friday night: no operational impact. Areas frost.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
showers will end across the area this evening as a strong storm
system tracks east from New England toward the Maritimes. West-
northwest winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph late this afternoon
into this evening before slowly diminishing overnight. Relative
humidity values will range from 85 to 95 percent tonight, then
fall to 50 to 60 percent on Friday with some clearing as high
pressure builds toward the area from the west. Winds will remain
a bit gusty on Friday, from the northwest with top speeds of 15
to 25 mph.
a Flood Watch remains in effect for areas north of I-90 through
this evening, primarily for localized, minor river flooding.
Flood warnings for stages cresting near flood stage are in
effect at hope through this evening and at Bennington VT late
this afternoon. Showers will continue into early this evening,
the diminish and end overnight. Additional rainfall after 4 PM
today will be mostly a quarter inch or less, with a few higher
totals possible over higher elevations mainly east of the Hudson
River. Dry weather will return to the area Friday through
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.
New York...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for nyz032-033-038-
Vermont...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for vtz013>015.