Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 151801
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
201 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
high pressure will build in over New York and New
England with fair weather and comfortable humidity levels this
afternoon before the next chance for precipitation arrives tomorrow
into the mid week. A muggy air mass building in will bring about
increasing temperatures and humidity that will last the remainder of
the week. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
late in the week into next weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 125 PM EDT...high pressure continues to ridge in over New York
and PA this afternoon. Some cirrus and a few-sct cumulus are
migrating over the mid and upper level ridge aloft upstream, but
overall expect partly to mostly sunny skies due to the
subsidence from the anticyclone and Max temps near normal for
mid July with upper 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations
with a few mid 80s near kpou and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
higher terrain. The 12z kaly sounding precipitable water is 0... is
well below normal for this date in July. Dewpoints will remain
in the comfortable range in the 50 with light north to northeast
winds of less than 10 mph.
Tonight...the sfc anticyclone drifts south and east of the
region after midnight. A period of clear or mostly clear skies
should occur with some near ideal radiational cooling
conditions. The boundary layer is dry and with a decoupling of
the winds we could see temps fall into the 50s to around 60f in
a few of the valley areas. Some isolated upper 40s are possible
over the southern Adirondacks. Could also see some patchy
shallow radiational mist near Lake George south into the upper
Hudson and also east of the southern green mtns. Some mid or
high clouds drift back in and may limit temps from falling
further as a warm front lifts slowly northeast from the Ohio
Valley and mid Atlantic states. Humidity levels and sfc dewpts
will continue to be on the pleasant or comfortable side.
Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
fairly active period of weather as combination of tropical
moisture from remnants of Barry, convective elements from the
upper plains and a frontal zone across the northern Great Lakes
into the St Lawrence Valley. This front will likely focus the
concentrated area of rainfall, just north of the cwa, as the
remainder of the region will become embedded with higher
anomalous pwats as 'barry' transverses the region. Those
anomalies are between 2-3 Standard deviations above normal
beginning later Tuesday afternoon and continuing through
Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a look back at the past 30 days of
precipitation, our departure from normal with respect to
rainfall has been below normal. Given these factors, and per
close coordination with wpc, we will place portions of eastern
New York into a 'marginal risk' for excessive rainfall. Furthermore,
instability parameters become a bit elevated through the short
term, with those higher values into the afternoon hours. While
we are not outlooked via spc, forecast BUFKIT profiles hint at
some precip loading with those higher pwats and a wet microburst
is indeed possible within heavier convective elements. Looks
for high temperatures into the 80s for valley locations with 70s
elsewhere, overnight lows mainly into the 60s with lower 70s
for valley locations by Wednesday night.
Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
moisture from the remnants of Barry combined with an approaching
upper level impulse from the Ohio Valley should allow showers and
embedded thunderstorms to continue Thursday, especially early in the
day. There is a possibility that activity decreases in coverage from
west to east by afternoon. Locally heavy downpours will remain
possible given pwat's approaching 2". It will be very humid, but
actual temps may be tempered by the clouds and rainfall. Current
forecast highs are for mid/upper 80s in valleys, and upper 70s/lower
80s across higher elevations, although temps could be warmer should
clouds/rain depart sooner. Dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s
to lower/mid 70s. Thursday night lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s
with perhaps isolated evening showers/storms possible.
Friday-Friday night, the peak of the heat episode looks to occur
Friday, when highest temperatures potentially coincide with greatest
dewpoints. Deep mixing could allow afternoon dewpoints to "drop"
into the upper 60s to around 70, however this potential deep mixing
could also allow Max temps to reach the mid/upper 90s in many valley
areas. This would lead to heat indices potentially reaching 100-105f
in valley areas, while upper 80s to lower/mid 90s across higher
terrain. Heat advisories will likely be issued for many areas, and
it is possible that some excessive heat warnings will be needed.
Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
for areas north of I-90. A weak cold front (or dewpoint boundary)
should settle south and east later Friday into Friday night. Lows
Friday night mainly in the mid 60s to lower/mid 70s.
Saturday-Sunday, aforementioned possible dewpoint boundary may
settle south of the region, allowing dewpoints to drop slightly into
the 60s. However, it should remain quite hot, with highs potentially
reaching 90-95 in most valley areas, and perhaps 95-100 within
portions of the Mid Hudson valley. Heat indices may be lower than
Friday due to slightly lower dewpoints, with generally mid/upper 90s
in valleys, and 80s to lower 90s across higher terrain areas.
Additional heat advisories will likely be needed for valley
locations. Convection may be suppressed should the dewpoint boundary
settle south of the region. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s to
around 70. Sunday highs may be slightly cooler, but still well above
normal, with upper 80s to lower 90s in most valley areas, and upper
70s to lower/mid 80s across higher terrain. Dewpoints mainly in the
60s, with potential for heat indices reaching 90-95 in valley areas,
especially south and east of Albany. Convection may remain limited
once again, assuming deeper moisture has been suppressed south of
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
high will continue to be over the region the rest of the
afternoon and drift south and east of the region tonight into
VFR conditions are expected mainly the next 24 hours ending
18z/Tuesday at kgfl/kalb/kpou/kpsf. A brief window of MVFR/IFR mist
radiational mist is possible at kgfl/kpsf between 07z-10z/Tue.
We placed IFR conditions at kgfl and MVFR at kpsf.
Otherwise a few-sct cumulus ans sct-bkn thin cirrus will
continue this afternoon, and dissipate towards sunset. Expect
some mid and high clouds to increase from the west to
southwest between 06z-10z/Tue. Mid level clouds will be in the
10-15 kft above ground level range in the late morning into the afternoon.
Northwest to northeast winds of 5-10 kts will become light to
calm around 00z/Tue. The winds will increase from the south to
southwest at 4-8 kts late Tue morning.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra.
Thursday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers...tsra.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers...tsra.
Friday night: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...tsra.
Saturday: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...tsra.
high pressure will bring tranquil weather with
comfortable humidity levels today before the next chance for
precipitation arrives for middle of the week. This will also bring
about increasing temperatures and humidity that will last the
remainder of the week.
Relative humidity values will decrease to 40 to 45 percent during the
afternoon today then recover to between 80 and 95 percent
The winds will become light and variable to calm into this
morning, then west-northwest at 5 to 15 kts by this afternoon.
Winds become light and variable tonight with a tendency to
become a light southerly wind by Tuesday morning.
no hydrology problems are expected on the main Stem rivers in
the Albany Hydro service area the next several days.
Mainly dry weather is expected today into most of tonight,
which will allow flows to recede from rainfall yesterday.
Moisture and the increase probability for wet weather arrives
later Tuesday and through Wednesday night. This will be mainly
due to the remnants of Barry lifting through the region. As per
the past 30-days, most of the region has been drier than
normal. So at this time, per wpc coordination, we will place
portions of eastern New York into a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall due to anomalous high pwats and some training of
deeper convective cells.
Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/
web Page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and