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fxus61 kaly 211050 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
650 am EDT sun Jul 21 2019

Synopsis...
dangerous heat and oppressive humidity will continue
through today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will move
across the region on tonight into Monday, with a return to
seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels to begin the
work week. A widespread rainfall is possible Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
dangerous and oppressive heat will continue through the weekend
with heat advisories and excessive heat warnings in place.

Areas of clouds in central and eastern New York with a few showers
well west and north of our region. Upper energy in Canada is
tracking east and an associated cold front will sink slowly
south late this afternoon. West to west northwest low level flow
will limit low level convergence even though there is
considerable instability.

Including isolated showers and thunderstorms in the southern
Adirondacks this morning. Otherwise, new showers and
thunderstorms will form, again, isolated, this afternoon.
Boundary layer temperatures will cool slightly by late this
afternoon but intervals of sun and breezy west winds outside of
the areas of clouds and showers will help temperatures get into
the 90s in the Hudson Valley and northwest CT with cooler elsewhere.
High humidity will result in heat indices above 95 in areas with
the advisories and warnings through this afternoon.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
there are still disagreements in guidance as to the timing of
onset of rain Monday and the exit of the rain Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool through Sunday night and increasing
clouds and the onset of the rain will limit warming Monday.
Highs Monday in the 70s. Rain will be locally heavy from the
eastern Catskills to areas just south of the capital region
through the Mid Hudson valley, southern Berkshires and northwest CT
where isolated thunderstorms could produce urban and small
stream flooding.

The timing of the exit of the rain and beginning of clearing
will determine how much we can warm Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in
the 70s but around 70 northern areas. If clearing takes place
earlier in the day Tuesday, then some areas will get around 80.
Lows Tuesday night in the 50s to around 60.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
the period starts out Wednesday with slightly below normal
temperatures expected due to a broad upper level trough in place
across the region. Upper level trough axis forecast to move through
during the day, but with limited moisture/instability will only
mention isolated showers for areas north and west of Albany at this
time. Humidity levels will be comfortable with dewpoints in the 50s.
Any isolated showers should dissipate during the evening as the
trough axis passes east of the region.

On Thursday, a weak short wave trough will move across the area.
With warmer temperatures and potentially greater instability,
coverage of showers could be scattered north of Albany. Will mention
slight chance thunder due to some forecast instability present.
Temperatures look to warm back to normal levels. Diurnal influences
should result in decreasing shower activity after dark.

Friday through Saturday we are expecting mainly dry conditions with
warming temperatures, as a ridge of high pressure both at the
surface and aloft takes residence along the East Coast. Dewpoints
should start to increase with values rising back into the 60s during
this time. Low-level flow forecast to maintain a westerly component,
so at this time oppressive dewpoints in the 70s are not expected.
Tempertures should warm to above normal levels, with mid to upper
80s for highs in most valley locations.

&&

Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
a very warm and humid air mass will remain in place across the
region through today. A cold front will move through tonight.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour taf
period ending 12z Monday at the kalb/kpou/kgfl/kpsf terminals.
Just some scattered cumulus/cirrus clouds expected today, with
westerly winds increasing. Chance for convection is low today,
but an isolated thunderstorms and rain cannot be completely ruled out. Not enough
confidence to mention in tafs for now.

Winds will initially be southwest around 5 kt or less, becoming
westerly and increasing to 10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts of
20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Monday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...ra...tsra.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
dangerous heat and oppressive humidity will continue
through today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will move
across the region on tonight into Monday, with a return to
seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels to begin the
work week. A widespread rainfall is possible Monday night into
Tuesday.

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through the
entire forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will
generally stay above 50% for the entire forecast period with relative humidity
values approaching 95% during the overnight hours. Generally
light south to southwest flow will turn to west and northwest
today at around 15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph. Winds then
become north to northwest at 15 mph or less on Monday.

&&

Hydrology...
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible
today with more widespread precipitation possible Monday night
through Tuesday. Torrential downpours will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop. Areas south of the capital region
could get over an inch of rain while areas from the capital
region northward will see a quarter to three quarters of an
inch. There is a slight chance for excessive rainfall and
localized flooding in showers and thunderstorms Monday into
Tuesday. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through
the forecast period at this time.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ web
Page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

Climate...
record high minimum temperatures and high temperatures...

July 21st...
albany: 76 degrees 2011 and 101 degrees 1930
glens falls: 72 degrees 2011 and 96 degrees 2011
poughkeepsie: 73 degrees 2011 and 101 degrees 1977

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ctz001-
013.
New York...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for nyz041-043-
047>054-058>061-063-083-084.
Excessive heat warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
nyz064>066.
Massachusetts...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for maz001-025.
Vermont...heat advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for vtz013>015.

&&

$$
Synopsis...NAS
near term...NAS
short term...NAS

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