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fxus61 kaly 260738 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
338 am EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

high pressure will dominate our weather into Tuesday
with comfortable humidity levels and partly to mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will run slightly below normal for late August. The
next chance for rain returns on Wednesday as a cold front moves
through the region.


Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 300 am EDT, clear skies prevail early this morning,
allowing for some patchy fog to form in and near the river
valleys and other bodies of water. Temperatures currently range
from the 40s to lower 50s with generally calm winds.

High pressure, centered over New England, will gradually shift
south today through Tuesday, while the sensible weather remains
dry. As the ridge shifts south, surface winds will turn from
the east-northeast towards the south by Tuesday afternoon,
resulting in gradually warming temperatures. Moisture will
return on Tuesday, bringing an increase in clouds beginning
Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

Highs both days will be in the mid 70s in the valleys, will
upper 60s to lower 70s in the high terrain. Overnight lows
tonight will range from the mid 40s to low 50s.


Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...
the main upper level trough and surface cold front approaches
Tuesday night, as skies become mostly cloudy to overcast. A few
showers may be possible in far western areas by daybreak
Wednesday but it looks like the main batch of rain moves into
the region during the late morning into the afternoon. There are
some mixed signals as to whether a solid batch of rain holds
together as it moves east ahead of the front. It does look like
the best upper energy lifts north, displacing itself from the
area of rainfall and surface front. This may be enough to allow
for a weakening trend in the line of rain as it tracks through
the forecast area. Best chances for a steadier rainfall should
be north and west of Albany with lesser chances further south
and east. Have also included a slight chance of thunder for the
afternoon period but instability looks fairly weak. There is
more of a concern for heavy rainfall as precipitable waters increase to +2 to
+3 Standard deviations above normal. Good news is that we are
leading into this event with several dry days. Showers and the
front should exit to our east by daybreak Thursday.

Temperatures Wednesday will approach 80 degrees with 70s in the
high terrain. Lows Wednesday night will remain mild, in the mid
50s to low 60s.


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
the extended forecast begins with a cold front moving east of the
region across New England. The upper trough axis moves through
during the day with perhaps a few isolated showers north and west of
the capital region. Otherwise, a drying trend is expected with high
pressure building in from the lower MS and Ohio valleys Thursday afternoon
into Friday. Temps will be near or slightly above normal on Thursday with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations and mid
60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. Humidity levels will
gradually lower during the day. Initially, clearing skies and light
winds will allow temps to fall off into the 50s Thursday night with the
sfc anticyclone building in from the south. A mid and upper-level
trough amplifies over south-central Canada into the Great Lakes
region on Friday. Another cold front will be moving towards the
region to close the week. We are expecting predominately a dry day
with a slight or low chance of showers across the western
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with a prefrontal trough. Max
temps will be slightly above normal with upper 70s to lower 80s in
the valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s over the mtns.

Friday night...the cold front moves across most of the region with
limited moisture convergence and the better upper-level support
remaining over Canada. A slight to low chance of showers was kept
in the forecast from the capital district north and west. Lows will
be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Labor Day weekend...the mid and upper level flow remains fairly
zonal to start the Holiday weekend. There are some signals in the
medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance that high pressure
will attempt to build in Saturday with cooler and drier weather.
However, the frontal boundary may stall near the mid Atlantic states
with weak disturbance moving along it with a slight to low chance of
showers closer to the I-84 corridor. A weak mid level disturbance
may also trigger an isolated shower or some sprinkles over the
southern Adirondacks and southern greens Saturday afternoon. Some
uncertainty exists in the forecast here and if some ridging builds
in, then the entire weekend could be pretty much dry. Temps trend
towards seasonal normals by the latter half of the weekend with 60s
to mid/upper 70s across the forecast area.


Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
high pressure over Maine and New Brunswick will bring continued
fair and dry weather to the region today through tonight.

The clear skies coupled with light to calm winds is allowing for
some radiational mist/fog to form this morning. Kgfl continues
to oscillate from IFR to MVFR levels. We continued a forecast
for IFR/LIFR mist/fog prior to 12z. Kpsf also has a good chance
for IFR/LIFR mist/fog. The best chance will be prior to 12z too.
Kpou and kalb should be VFR, and some mifg may form near kalb
between 08z-12z. Once the mist/fog Burns off, then expect VFR
conditions for the duration of the taf cycle due to the strong
subsidence from the ridge at the surface and aloft.

A few cumulus may be around near kalb and kpsf, but other than
that VFR conditions with mainly light winds from the northeast
to southeast at 3-6 kts late this morning into the afternoon.
The winds will go light to calm prior to sunset, and some IFR
mist is possible once again by 04z/Tue.


Monday night to tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of
rain showers...tsra.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night to friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure will dominate our weather into Tuesday
with comfortable humidity levels and partly to mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will run slightly below normal for late August. The
next chance for rain returns on Wednesday as a cold front moves
through the region.

Relative humidity values will be above 35 percent Monday afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon. Relative humidity values will be near 100 percent tonight and
Tuesday night.

The winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph today,
turning calm tonight. Winds Tuesday will shift to the south and
southeast at 15 mph or less.


no significant Hydro problems are expected over the next 7 days
ending early next weekend.

Dry weather is expected through Tuesday. The next chance of
widespread rainfall will be with a frontal passage on Wednesday.
The rainfall Wednesday into Thursday is expected to have
minimal impacts on the main Stem river flows.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...jlv

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