Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kakq 261931 
afdakq

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure becomes centered off the southeast coast through the
weekend. A cold front approaches from the north late Sunday.

&&

Near term /tonight/...
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Despite the high level clouds moving north, expect mstly clr
skies north to pt cloudy skies south as high pressure settles
over the area. Lows in the mid-upr 60s, lwr 70s near the water.

&&

Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/...
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

The high moves off the mid Atlantic coast thurs, then extends west
into the Carolinas Fri/Sat. Airmass stays mostly capped so expect
mainly dry conditions thru the period. Will have to watch for any
convective complexes in the NW flow that moves se across the mts.
Think most of this activity stays just west of the local area thurs
and Fri. The ridge begins to break down Sat and retrogrades to the
west due to an upr lvl systm that drops SSE from ern Canada. This
should allow for some late day convection to spill into the Piedmont
so will keep slght chc aftrn/eve pops north/west.

High temps 90-95 Thu/Fri, low-mid 90s Sat, cooler at the beaches.
Dew points slowly rise into the 60s with heat index values mid-upr
90s thurs/Fri, 95-100 Sat. No record highs expected as the records
for all sites range btwn the upr 90s-lwr 100s each day. Lows thurs
nite upr 60s-lwr 70s, 70-75 Fri nite, low-mid 70s Sat nite.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

The upr level low conts to sink SSE to a psn off the New England
coast sun. This pushes a backdoor front south across the area sun
eve. Models differ on how much moisture accompanies the front, so
will keep low chc pops sun aftrn and eve for now. Highs sun upr 80s-
mid 90s. Lows sun nite mid 60s-lwr 70s.

Mstly sunny Mon as high pressure builds into the area. Highs in the
80s. Continued dry Mon nite. Lows 65-70.

The heat/humidity return Tue/Wed along with some moisture. Thus will
carry low chc pops each day. Highs both days in the upr 80s-lwr 90s.
Lows 70-75.

&&

Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions expected thru the forecast period as high pressure
moves off the mid Atlantic coast. Scattered cumulus this aftrn dissipate this
eve with only high level clouds tonight. North-northeast wind below 10 kts this
aftrn become light and vrbl tonite.

Outlook...VFR conditions continue through sun. Sct diurnal convection
may drift east of the mts, but expect most if not all activity to
stay west of any taf site tru late Sat. Convection will be possible
late sun as a cold front apprchs from the north.

&&

Marine...
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Quiet conditions this afternoon across the marine area with light
northerly winds (5-10 knots) and waves/seas 1-2 ft. High pressure
will move offshore later tonight and allow winds to become SW for a
period before a weak wind shift drops southward across the region
bringing northerly winds aob 10 knots through Thursday morning.
Southerly flow returns for Friday and becomes increasingly
southwesterly with time into Saturday but will remain sub-Small Craft Advisory with
~10 knots in the Bay and 10-15 knots offshore. Model consensus shows
stronger south and southwesterly winds and the potential for a
frontal passage late in the weekend. Waves/seas will generally
remain 1-2 ft through Saturday with modest increases thereafter as
slightly stronger flow sets up over the region.

&&

Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...none.
Virginia...none.
Marine...none.

&&

Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...none.
Virginia...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mpr

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations