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000 
FXUS61 KAKQ 141947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves across the local area through Tuesday. Rain
chances increase early Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold 
front. Clearing with gusty winds Wednesday night into Thursday.
Dry and pleasant Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

ST has been very slow to erode over SE VA-NE NC through this
afternoon. Clearing will continue for those areas this 
evening...OTW SKC tonight w/ light winds. Have included patchy 
FG over parts of ern/srn/SE VA and NE NC (mainly after midnight) 
due to the late clearing today (limiting too much drying). Lows
from the m-u40s along-W of I-95 to the l-m50s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Dry and pleasant wx Tue w/ mainly SKC and highs in the l70s N 
and m70s central/S. Winds turn to the SE by afternoon as sfc hi 
pres drifts off the coast ahead of lo pres over the Great Lakes.
Secondary lo pres will form over the Carolinas Tue night into 
early Wed. Onset of higher PoPs spreading from SW to NE late Tue
night through Wed morning. Some much needed rain will impact 
the area from about mid morning through early afternoon. Highs 
in the m60s NW to m70s SE. Forecast soundings do show some 
meager instability across the E and SE portions Wed afternoon 
ahead of the cold front so have continued w/ a SLGT CHC T 
mention in those areas. PoPs trend downward quickly by late Wed 
afternoon/evening as gusty WNW winds begin to usher in 
cooler/dry air. 

Winds stay up Wed night...esp E of I-95. OTW...SKC and cool Wed
night w/ from the l-m40s W of I-95 to the l50s at the coast. 
Deep layered WNW flow Thu as hi pres remains W of the mountains.
Still a bit breezy/(even windy near the coast) w/ a partly 
cloudy sky. Highs in the l-m60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Sfc hi pres moves across the FA Fri-Sat resulting in dry/near
seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high as it moves off the
coast Sun through Mon will likely bring an increase in moisture
(and PoPs) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the 
Midwest - initially inland during Sun...then all areas by Sun 
night/Mon.

Lows Thu night 40-45F inland to around 50F at the immediate 
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night in the l-m40s 
inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast). Highs Sat in the 
u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at
the coast. Highs Sun in the l70s at the coast and m70s elsewhere.
Highs Mon from the l70s N to the u70s far SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...

Lingering BKN MVFR CIGs a little while longer INVOF
ORF/PHF/ECG...OTW VFR/SKC through the 18Z TAF forecast period.
Winds mainly LGT from the NNW becoming LGT/VRB tonight then NNE
aob 10 kt Tue. A stronger cold front crosses the region Wed 
with SHRAs and flight restrictions. Period of gusty WNW winds
post cold front Wed night-early Thu...OTW VFR Wed night-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Late this aftn, a weak cold front was laying acrs NE NC, while
sfc high pressure was over the OH valley and KY. This front will
push SE of the area this evening, then another weak cold front 
will cross the waters early Tue morning. While winds will 
increase, the CAA and pressure gradient is too weak for 
issuance of any SCA headlines. N/NE winds at up to 15 kt with a 
few gusts to 20 kt will be possible. NE winds 5-15 kt Tue
morning will become E at 5-10 kt during the aftn. Sub-SCA 
conditions then prevail through Tue night, before another area 
of low pressure is progged to impact the area on Wed, followed 
by a much stronger cold front Wed night. Solid SCAs (due to 
winds) look likely Wed night-Thu behind the front. Local wind 
probabilities are starting to latch onto ~50% chance for Gale 
gusts at buoy 44009 by Wed night, and expect that Gales may be 
needed over the northern coastal waters. Due to the offshore NW 
flow, seas will not build that much despite the strong winds, 
generally to 4-6 ft while waves in the Bay build to ~4 ft with 
2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current forecast has winds 
remaining aoa SCA thresholds for Bay and coast through ~12z 
Fri. Sub-SCA conditions return by late Fri, as high pressure 
settles over the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Nuisance to minor flooding is still occurring across sound side
portions of NE NC, so will issue a Coastal Flood Statement
through this evening to cover this. SW to W winds shifting to 
the N or NE may help push much of this water back out of the 
Sound towards the Ocean this evening with falling water levels 
expected.

The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches through
Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...ALB

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