Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 150832
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
432 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019
a weak front will cross the area during today before washing
out over North Carolina tonight. Weak high pressure builds over
the area for Monday. Tropical Storm Humberto is forecast to
track well east of the southeast coast Tuesday through
Wednesday, as high pressure builds down into the region from the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 415 am EDT Sunday...
Early this morning, a weak front was just northwest of the cwa, while
an inverted trough was just off the NC coast where a few showers
were just off the NE NC coast. The sky was partly cloudy to
cloudy acrs the region with temps ranging from the upper 60s to
The weak front will drop acrs the area during today before
washing out over NC tonight, bringing a slight to sml chance for
showers and maybe an isolated tstm, esply late this morning into
early this evening. Otherwise, partly sunny to mostly cloudy
today with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
as of 415 am EDT Sunday...
Lingering slight chance of showers across the far southern
portion of the area this evening, otherwise becoming mostly
clear to partly cloudy tonight. Fog will likely develop over
much of the region late tonight/early Mon morning, due to very
light or no wind. Lows tonight will range thru the 60s to near
High pressure builds in for Mon with ample sunshine and very
warm temps in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. A mostly clear
sky will become partly to mostly cloudy Mon night into Tue
morninig, as high pressure building down from southeast Canada pushes
a backdoor cold front down into/acrs the area. Lows Mon night
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. That front could
produce isolated to sctd showers over at least the srn two
thirds of the area Tue into Tue evening. More clouds, NE winds,
and the possibility of some showers will result in high temps
ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
Strong agreement amongst the models that Tropical Storm Humberto
will remain offshore and turn out to sea well south of the region.
Otherwise, high pressure builds southward across the region
Wednesday into Friday as a frontal boundary washes out well south of
the area. Much cooler and drier air builds into the region beginning
on Wednesday. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to near 80
on both Wednesday and Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Lows dip
back into the mid to upper 50s away from the coast on both Wednesday
night and Thursday night. A warming trend begins again on Friday as
upper level ridging builds back across the region, highs on Friday
will generally be in the lower 80s with mid to upper 80s by
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 300 am EDT Sunday...
A weak front will drop acrs the area during today, then wash out
over NC tonight. This front could produce a few showers and
maybe an isolated tstm late this morning into early this
evening, along with MVFR cigs. Isolated IFR cigs will be
possible at ric and sby early this morning.
Will just mention vcsh at sby for late this morning thru this
aftn, where highest pop (40%) is fcst. Could have IFR fog at
ric/sby/phf early Mon morning, but otherwise expect VFR
conditions during Mon, as weak high pressure builds over the
Outlook...not anticipating any widespread restrictions Mon night
thru Thu at this time.
as of 355 am EDT Sunday...
A weak cold front is located northwest of the marine area early this
morning, and this front will slowly drop in from the north today
resulting in a brief wind shift to north/NE with speeds aob 10kt.
Seas have dropped below 5ft. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory for the ocean
has been cancelled, with seas of 3-4ft expected today with
lingering swell. A rather weak flow regime develops tonight into
Monday and Monday night as Humberto is forecast to strengthen
off the southeast coast. Humberto is forecast to track east-northeast well
off the southeast coast Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure
builds across New England. This will produce a relatively tight
pressure gradient, with the potential for a 15-25kt NE wind
(highest for the srn ocean zones and lower bay). Seas are
expected to build to 5-8ft Tuesday night through at least
Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for the ocean beginning
Tuesday night, and potentially trough at a minimum Thursday,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Lower Bay/lower James/sound later
Tuesday into Thursday.
A high risk of rip currents will continue today for the srn
beaches, and has been extended into the nrn beaches given
lingering shore normal ~10sec 3-4ft swell. A moderate rip
current risk is likely Monday, with a return to a high risk for
the middle of the week as swell from Humberto propagates toward
kdox radar remains offline until further notice due to an equipment
issue. Updates will be passed along as they become available.