Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 150030
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
830 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019
a weak front approaches the region tonight and crosses the area
on Sunday before washing out over NC Sunday night. High
pressure builds in early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 815 PM EDT Saturday...
The weakening surface front is struggling to get out of the
Appalachian Mountains this evening and the showers and storms
along the front area also waning and dissipating with the
heating of the day gone. The best dynamics will also be sliding
north of the area late tonight into the day on Sunday. So have
slowed the onset of pops in the northern portion of the County Warning Area and
with the lack of forcing scaled the pops back to just slight
high pressure, well to the east of Cape Cod,
continues to move eastward this afternoon, allowing local winds
to swing around to the southeast. A few weak returns are showing
up on radar near and north of the Albemarle Sound and will
maintain slight chance pops across the southeast into the
A weak surface cold front is poised to the northwest of the region and will
approach the area tonight. There is the potential for fog
development, especially across the southern Piedmont late tonight
into early Sunday. Guidance has trended lower with precip along the
front tonight into Sunday morning and will only show slight chance
pops across the north and northwest through 12z Sunday. Overnight
lows in the mid 60s to right around 70 degrees.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
The aforementioned cold front drops northwest to southeast Sunday morning,
bringing a chance for showers prior to noon. Instability and
upper dynamics are lacking with this boundary but did include a
slight chance for a few rumbles of thunder as the front nears
the Virginia/NC border region during peak heating Sunday afternoon.
The front should slow its southward progress into the afternoon
hours and will wash out near or just south of the region into
early Monday. Lingering slight chance of showers across the far
southern portion of the area Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday in
the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging through the 60s
(coolest north and nw).
High pressure builds in for Monday with ample sunshine, resulting in
warm afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Mid
60s and low 70s for low temps Monday night. High pressure to the
north sends a backdoor cold front through the region on Tuesday with
NE winds in its wake. Slight chance for showers along and ahead of
the this front through Tuesday evening. Highs will be modestly
cooler on Tuesday with increased clouds, ranging from the upper 70s
across Maryland Eastern Shore to mid 80s across the SW Piedmont.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
Strong agreement amongst the models that Tropical Storm Humberto
will remain offshore and turn out to sea well south of the region.
Otherwise, high pressure builds southward across the region
Wednesday into Friday as a frontal boundary washes out well south of
the area. Much cooler and drier air builds into the region beginning
on Wednesday. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to near 80
on both Wednesday and Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Lows dip
back into the mid to upper 50s away from the coast on both Wednesday
night and Thursday night. A warming trend begins again on Friday as
upper level ridging builds back across the region, highs on Friday
will generally be in the lower 80s with mid to upper 80s by
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 100 PM EDT Saturday...
Overall seeing mainly VFR conditions across the region this
evening as a weakening cold front is still trying to exit the
Appalachian Mountains this evening. Satellite show some patches
of 3k - 4k feet clouds still moving through in advance of the
front along with some higher cirrus as well. But overall much of
the area is generally seeing clear conditions to begin the
evening. The sfc front will slowly progress eastward overnight
and should reach the area NW of ric and sby around 12z, but the
forcing along the front is weak and the front may dissolve
before clearing NE NC. With lingering low level moisture in
advance of the front and some decoupling with the light flow
could produce some MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings for ric and
Expect ceilings to rise once the heating of the day begins on
Sunday and the low level flow picks up in advance of the sfc
front. Have ceilings getting back to VFR by 14z - 15z. Did not
mention any restrictions with showers at this point with the low
chance in the forecast, but with the weakening front and lack of
forcing not anticipating lots of widespread convection on
Sunday. The best chance would be in southeast Virginia and NE NC perhaps
impacting orf and ecg.
Outlook...not anticipating any widespread restrictions Sunday
night through Thursday at this time.
as of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
High pressure east of Nova Scotia is resulting in an easterly flow
this afternoon. Winds have generally been 5-10 kts with occasional
15 kt gusts across the coastal waters. Waves in the Bay running 1-2
ft and seas 4-5 ft. Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters through 10z
Sunday, at that point seas will have subsided to 2-4 ft and remain
there through Sunday. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday but
will likely wash out somewhere across the region during the day but
should make it far enough to shift winds to north/NE for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Wind speeds remain 5-10 kts.
Attention for the upcoming week turns to Humberto. While the track
keeps the system well away from our region off the southeast coast, a tight
pressure gradient will develop thanks to Humberto and strong high
pressure that builds in over the northeast. This could result in
easterly winds of 15-25 kts from late Tuesday through Thursday and
seas potentially building to 5-8 ft, and waves of 2-3 ft in the
southern part of the Bay. Will continue to monitor over the next few
there is a high risk of rip currents through this evening for
Atlantic beaches. Sunday there will be a high risk of rip
currents for southern beaches including Hampton Roads and the
northern Outer Banks, and a moderate risk of rip currents for
the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore beaches.
kdox radar remains offline until further notice due to an equipment
issue. Updates will be passed along as they become available.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Sunday for anz650-652-654-