Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 151849
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
249 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
high pressure settles off the southeast coast tonight into
Tuesday. A gradual increase in temperatures and moisture levels
will lead to increasing chances for showers and storms on
Tuesday and heat related headlines from mid week through the
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 1110 am EDT Monday...
A tolerable afternoon as dew points range from the l60s-l70s
over the forecast area. Temperatures are also down a few degs f from the
past couple of days as well. As expected...isolated convection
building up over the higher terrain in wrn Virginia attm...a couple of
those may survive into far wrn portions of the forecast area this evening.
Sfc hi pres north-northeast of the local area attm drifts off the coast
tonight...resulting in winds veering from north-northeast to south-southeast and the
gradual return of higher dew points. Mostly sky clear tonight...would
not rule out patchy light fog late mainly over some rural inland
areas. Lows from the u60s-l70s inland to the m70s along coastal
southeast Virginia-NE NC.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
as of 240 PM EDT Monday...
While remnants of a tropical Cyclone Pass well west-north of the
region Tue-Wed...sfc hi pres becomes reestablished off the mid-
Atlantic/southeast Continental U.S. Coast...resulting increased moisture/dew
points again. Pops (by Tue afternoon) rise to 30-50%
inland...15-30% at the coast. Highs Tue 90-95f...except u80s at
the beaches (heat indices back to the m90s-103f away from the
SW flow of very warm/hot and humid air into the region Tue
night- Wed W/ only minimal (diurnal) rain chances. Lows Tue
night in the l-m70s. Highs in the m90s inland...u80s-l90s at
the (immediate) coast.
Before (even) hotter wx arrives (late week-weekend)...a weak
trough aloft will be crossing the region Thu which potentially
causes another increase in convection (thu afternoon/evening).
Otw...partly cloudy W/ lows Wed night mainly in the M-u70s.
Highs Thu in the l-m90s.
Heat advisories may be necessary Wed-Thu afternoons...mainly east
and southeast portions (away from the coast) as heat indices both days
are forecast to reach or exceed 105f (based on dew points in
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 220 PM EDT Sunday...
A typical mid July/summertime wx pattern persists through the
extended forecast period as hi pres sfc-aloft builds from the
southeast/mid-Atlantic states on west through the mid MS valley.
Confidence is high right now that this will be the hottest
period of the Summer so far. Mainly partly cloudy...hot/humid
during the day...very warm/humid at night through the period (w/
aob climo diurnal pops (blo 30%) - except maybe a bit higher by
mon). Highs Fri-sun 95-100f...locally u80s-l90s at the
immediate coast. Nighttime lows 75-80f. Heat adviories (heat
indices 105-109f) and/or excessive heat warnings (heat indices
110f+) are likely Fri through next weekend (dependent upon
future dew point forecasts). Will continue to highlight this
potential in the severe weather potential statement. There are hints that the hot wx may begin
to break after Mon as hi pres breaks down and a cold front
presses toward/into the region. Highs Mon mainly in the 90s.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 210 PM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions expected through the 18z taf forecast period.
Generally sky clear into tonight then scattered-broken mainly mid/high level
clouds possible later tonight into Tue morning. North-northeast winds aob 10
mph into this evening. Light fog possible late tonight as winds
are vrb or light south-southeast. There will be an increase in
afternoon/evening shras/tstms Tue...then lower pops by late Tue
night through Wed. Scattered tstms are possible again Thu...W/ only
isolated tstms possible Fri-Sat. Otw...VFR conditions expected
mid-late this week..
as of 315 am EDT Monday...
A weak cold front is currently pushing into the northern waters
and will push S of the region later this morning before stalling
and dissipating over NE NC. With little in the way of cold air advection and a
rather weak pressure gradient, only a very minimal surge will
occur this morning with winds shifting to the north-northeast at 10-15 kt
for a few hrs. Seas will mostly be around 2 ft (perhaps
building to 2-3 ft for a few hrs) and waves in the Bay will
mostly be around 1 foot (1-2 ft for a few hrs this morning).
Flow gradually becomes east 5-10 kt this aftn and then southeast tonight.
High pressure off the coast Tue will continue to bring a light
southeast flow, increasing slightly into the late aftn/evening to 10-15
kt at most. By mid/late week, the pressure gradient will
tighten up a bit so will tend to see somewhat stronger winds as
low pressure approaches from the west. Still expect sub-Small Craft Advisory
conditions through Friday, but with seas increasing to 2-4 ft
for late Wed/Thu/Fri and waves in the Bay to around 2 ft.