Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak67 pajk 232228
Southeast Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska
228 PM akdt Wed Oct 23 2019
Short term...a strong cold front has been pushing through seak
today bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Tonight, the flow
pattern has switched to a SW onshore flow behind the frontal
passage. A series of shortwave trofs will move around the parent
low into the Gulf and northern half of Southeast Alaska tonight into Thu
night. This flow pattern will support evening showers throughout
the Panhandle and keep precip chances elevated through Thursday.
A strong low near Bristol Bay will begin to weaken and drift east
into the northwest Gulf by late Thu morning. This low will continue to
weaken over the northwest Gulf into Thu night with precip chances
following suit. Thursday evening, a low pressure wave will move NE
to southern haida gwaii and is likely to increase precip to the
Friday, onshore flow keeps showers around the region as the low
in the northern Gulf weakens into an open trough and slowly moves
east towards the northeast Gulf Coast. Shower activity looks to
diminish Friday afternoon and evening as a high pressure system
builds in from the west and a light offshore wind component kicks
in. Overall, little changes were made to the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to be above freezing tonight as cloud
cover remains over the Panhandle and winds remain breezy.
Long term.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 PM Tuesday/
guidance continues to indicate the development of a drier weather
pattern this weekend which could continue into early next week. A
ridge is expected build into the eastern Gulf and Panhandle on
Saturday and remain in place for a few days until a system in the
Bering breaks it down. Models are in good agreement that a large
ridge of high pressure will dominate the region over the weekend
but still have some discrepancies on its strength, the axis of the
ridge, and how it will evolve beginning of next week. Despite
some model differences, confidence is high in a dry weekend for
much of the Panhandle. Temps throughout the long term will remain
near to slightly above normal so not anticipating precip type
No major wind concerns or changes to the wind forecast for the
long term. Went mainly with wpc from Sunday Onward as there are
still model discrepancies as to how systems in the Bering and Gulf
will interact with the ridge of high pressure the first half of
next week. Confidence in the forecast is highest through the
weekend and then lowers significantly Tuesday and Wednesday.
public...strong wind until 7 PM akdt this evening for akz027-028.
Strong wind until 4 PM akdt this afternoon for akz025.
Strong wind until 7 PM akdt this evening for akz019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM akdt this evening for akz018.
Strong wind through Thursday morning for akz018.
Marine...Gale Warning for pkz031-032-034-036.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-033-035-041>043-