Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
331 PM akst Tue Nov 19 2019
very active weather pattern continues for northern Alaska. A
strong low near Nunivak Island will move east and then southeast
to be located near Dillingham Wednesday morning. This will cause
heavy snow to continue over the interior this evening and will
continue into Wednesday night. Expect 8-12 inches of snow over
the western interior/Norton sounds coast, and south slopes of the
Alaska Range, while the eastern interior gets 4-6 inches of snow.
The Chinook shadow area stretching the Alaska Range to Fairbanks
will get 2-4 inches of snow and have a chance of freezing rain
south of Fairbanks.
This storm will continues to bring northeast gale force winds to
much of the West Coast this evening. The strong winds will
continue into Wednesday, with gusts to 60 mph over zone 213. This
will also bring this will also bring south winds 50 to 60 mph
over the Alaska Range this evening. Winds will decrease tonight,
and then increase again Wednesday PM and will continue into Thu.
a deep upper level low over the central Aleutians will continue to
move north and east over southwest Alaska and weaken slightly
through Wednesday and over the central interior Thursday. Another
shortwave over the central Aleutians on Thursday will push east
over the eastern Aleutians and then north into Bristol Bay on
Friday. A ridge centered over eastern Alaska and the Yukon will
remain in place through Friday.
a 966 mb low over Bristol Bay 50 nm south of Nunivak Island will
drift east and then southeast to be located near Dillingham
Wednesday afternoon as a 976 mb low. A strong front extending
north and east of the low will continue to move north and east
into the interior through Wednesday. Expect 4-8 inches of snow
along this front in the western interior and yk Delta, with
amounts decreasing to 2-4 inches in the ern interior due to the
Chinook effect. Local blizzard conditions near the front this
evening will diminish tonight over the West Coast and western
interior.Expect a chance of freezing rain with the front this
this evening just north of the Alaska Range, and in the southwest
interior. Chance of freezing rain will change to snow tonight
with the snow spreading east with the cold front.
Winds south gusting 60-70 mph with this front across the Alaska
Range, will decrease late tonight, then increasing again Wed
afternoon/evening and continuing into Thursday. The low over the
eastern Aleutians will move over Bristol Bay as a 975 mb low by
Wednesday afternoon. The Arctic front with this will move over
the SW interior Wed, to Galena by 3am Thu, and to Bettles by 3pm
Thu. Expect another 2-4 inches of snow with this cold front. This
will help boost the Alaska Range winds again Wed night. A deeper
low will move north over Bristol Bay on Thursday.
Models...the 19/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z
surface analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
The models continue to struggle on the track and strength of
features past Wednesday with considerable spread on solutions
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...
high surf continues for the northern shore of St Lawrence Island
high surf advisory for akz213.
Winter Storm Warning for akz212-akz214-akz215-akz216-akz226.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz211-akz217-akz219-akz220-akz221-
High Wind Warning for akz213.
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
Gale Warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz225-pkz230.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz245.