Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxak69 pafg 131420 
afdafg

Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
520 am akst Wed Nov 13 2019



Synopsis...
active weather pattern setting up for the interior today through
Friday. Strong winds will develop across the interior today and
continue into Friday. This will cause blowing snow and low
visibility, especially over summits to the north and west of
Fairbanks. A front associated will begin to spread snow into the
southeastern interior during the day on Wednesday, then spread
across the central interior on Thursday.

Discussion...
aloft...models in good agreement through 60 hrs. We did
a blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) for quantitative precipitation forecast and snow amounts.
A closed 524 dam upper low will develop over the central
part of the state today and retrograde to the Yukon Delta
by Thursday. This low will track south into Bristol Bay by
Friday. A 554 dam high will remain quasi- stationary near
wrangel island through Friday. The high will will weaken
slightly to 544 dam by Friday.

Surface...a 1043 mb high pressure center located 300 nm northwest
of Point Barrow will continue to push south through Friday
weakening slowly and will be located over the the southern
Chukchi Sea and the North Slope as 1026 mb high on Friday.

Central and eastern interior: active weather is setting
up over the interior today through Friday. A tight pressure
gradient will set up over much of the central and western
interiors today through Friday. This will cause strong
northeasterly winds to develop over much of the interior.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible above treeline north
of Fairbanks with significant blowing snow expected Wednesday
night and Thursday over the Dalton, Elliot and Steese Highway
summits. Temperatures will fall starting Wednesday night as some
very cold air pushes southwest into the upper Yukon Flats and the
fortymile country. The colder temperatures combined with the
strong winds will result in wind chill values of 15 to 30 below.
Also expecting precipitation to develop over the interior on
Thursday. Heavy snowfall is expected in areas that are favored
with northeast upslope flow such as the upper Tanana Valley, the
eastern Alaska Range and fortymile country.

For Fairbanks, we expect snow to begin early Thursday morning.
Winter storm warnings are still in effect for zones 219, 220 and
221 for snow and blowing snow and strong winds. We extended
these out until noon on Friday as models are indicating that
strong winds could linger into Friday. Winter weather advisories
for zones 222 (including fairbanks) and zone 223 for the
combination of for a combination of snow and blowing snow. Winter
storm warnings still in effect for zones 224 and 226 for 8 to 12
inches of snow with locally higher amounts in the Alaska Range.
Snow is expected to taper off by Friday morning. Another shot of
snow is possible for the interior on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks range: the combination of high pressure off
the Arctic coast and low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will
keep onshore flow through much of the week. Given the open water,
this will keep fog and occasional snow showers in coastal areas
through much of the week. We expect east to northeast winds of 15
to 30 mph range with areas of higher gusts on the eastern North
Slope and through the Brooks range passes.

West Coast and western interior: east to northeast winds to will
increase Wednesday as an area of high pressure moves moves south
in the Arctic. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible across much
of the West Coast and western interior. Wind advisories
are still in effect for zones 216 and 217. Again we extended
these out as strong winds could continue into Friday. High Wind
Warning is still in effect for Saint Lawrence Island.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.

&&

Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory for akz216-akz217.

Winter Weather Advisory for akz222-akz223.

Winter Storm Warning for akz219-akz220-akz221-akz224-akz226.

High Wind Warning for akz213.

Small Craft Advisory for pkz230.

Gale Warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz215.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations