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fxus63 kabr 210517 aac 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1117 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

issued at 859 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

Forecast is in fine shape so no major changes are expected. A
couple reports of dense fog in the northeast County Warning Area recently, but
feel that might be short-lived as winds switch around to northerly
this evening. It still appears that the brunt of pcpn with the
Central Plains system will stay south and east of the forecast
area. Drizzle/snow continue across the region, and some of that
drizzle may switch to freezing drizzle as cold air continues to
slide south into the County Warning Area overnight. Not expecting much in the way
of accumulations, but a few slick spots are not entirely out of
the question later tonight.


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 308 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

Still watching the deeper low-level moisture and colder air as it
slowly slides south through the region. Kmbg just recently went down
to 2sm and 600ft cigs with drizzle. The sub-freezing temps are still
back off to the northwest, but not too terribly far - close enough
to bring a threat of freezing drizzle this evening/overnight as
well. Any ice accumulations look to be rather minimal, but there
could be just enough to make a few slick roadways later tonight. As
for snowfall, still not expecting much as models have really backed
off on quantitative precipitation forecast. Looking at generally under an inch, with some areas
perhaps just a trace or nothing at all. Northerly winds will
increase across the area overnight, and have increased winds from
previous forecast by siding with consmos.

Quiet weather sets up Thursday into Thursday night as the storm
system departs. With clearing skies Thursday night and generally
light winds, decided to side towards the cooler end of low
temperatures, although there's a lot of guidance that would suggest
we're not going cold enough.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 308 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

The extended opens with high pressure at the sfc keeping US warm and
dry into the weekend. The flow aloft will begin to collapse on
Monday bringing a cooling trend through Wednesday with highs falling
into the 30s. A more active pattern also sets up at the surface for
next week. While there's not great model agreement, there is some
indication south central South Dakota could see some rain and snow Monday and
Monday night. If the precipitation spreads farther northeast,
accumulations would be minimal.

There is the potential for a mid-week storm heading into the
Thanksgiving Holiday. However, most long range models are keeping
the impacts to the south and east. Will continue to monitor the
track and intensity of this system as the time moves closer.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs is expected overnight. However, rising cigs
are likely during the day on Thursday as drier air moves in from
the west. Patchy drizzle/snow remains possible over the region
through tonight.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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