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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
324 am MDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Synopsis...
near to record breaking heat will continue across portions of the
state today (minus the northeast corner). A backdoor cold front
approaching northeastern New Mexico will provide some relief from the
heat and additional moisture to the state. A series of cold fronts
throughout the week will bring an uptick in storm coverage. Highs
will largely be near to above normal, except for the northeastern
portion of the state.

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Discussion...
daytime highs continue to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal across the
state today, as the nose of high pressure makes an eastward extension.
A heat advisory is in place for Chaves County with another day of
105+ degree temperatures. Additionally, several locations will be
near or above their record highs. Albuquerque's record for today is
97, which is easily beatable at this point. Looking at trends, the
eastern plains is one to two degrees warmer than at 3 am yesterday
and dewpoints are up everywhere, except across the east. However, a
backdoor cold front approaching the northeast corner of the state
about mid- morning should drop temperatures slightly and bring
additional moisture. As the front approaches the Rio Grande Valley
Monday night into Tuesday, east wind speeds will increase.

Tuesday and Wednesday have the potential to break and even tie
records for Farmington and Gallup, along the western edge of the
frontal boundary. Behind the front, Roswell will drop down into the
upper-80s compared to the previous day's triple digit heat. This is
the first time since June 10th that Roswell will be at or below 87
degrees. Elsewhere, a "cooling" trend is expected, although highs
will still be near to above normal for this time of year. Tuesday
night will be locally windy for the abq Metro area behind the front,
but the gradient just isn't there and guidance has already come down
on wind speeds. Precip onset has been delayed a few hours Tuesday
night into Wednesday with the stable air behind the front.

After that, it's a series of fronts. The high pressure begins to
shift back of The Four Corners region, but an increase in storm
coverage is expected, especially later into the week. By Saturday,
the upper high is projected to shift eastward over Texas/Oklahoma.
After Sunday, several model differences exist as to the placement of
upper high, but is possible it will shift further east early next
week.

31

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Fire weather...
another hot, dry and unstable day is on tap, except for across far
northeast New Mexico where a backdoor cold front will push in during
the afternoon hours. More record or near record high temperatures
are expected today. The backdoor front will slide southwest across
the area tonight, bringing a cooler airmass with increased humidity
west to near the Continental Divide by Tuesday morning. A hot, dry
and unstable airmass will remain west of The Divide Tuesday, but
temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees less than today's across the
eastern two-thirds of the area. Chances for wetting storms will ramp-
up Wednesday, then continue through the remainder of the work week
as the upper high remains centered well west of the state over
Southern California and Arizona. Another backdoor front will
recharge moisture Friday night or Saturday, keeping good chances for
wetting storms going into Sunday before a downtrend early next week
as the upper high moves back east to over Colorado and northern New
Mexico.

11

&&

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the taf
period. Afternoon and early evening gusts to between 20-25kts will be
common Monday. A wind shift is forecast with a backdoor front at both
ktcc and klvs Monday.

11

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Farmington...................... 97 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 91 48 88 46 / 0 0 0 5
Cuba............................ 91 57 88 57 / 0 0 5 10
Gallup.......................... 94 50 93 52 / 0 0 5 5
El Morro........................ 89 52 89 53 / 0 0 10 10
Grants.......................... 93 52 90 54 / 0 0 10 10
Quemado......................... 89 56 89 57 / 0 0 30 20
Datil........................... 89 58 85 58 / 0 0 30 20
Glenwood........................ 95 65 95 65 / 5 0 20 10
Chama........................... 83 47 81 46 / 0 0 0 5
Los Alamos...................... 89 62 84 62 / 0 0 10 10
Pecos........................... 89 57 83 57 / 0 5 10 30
Cerro/Questa.................... 85 52 82 51 / 0 10 20 20
Red River....................... 77 46 73 46 / 5 10 30 30
Angel Fire...................... 82 42 77 40 / 5 10 30 30
Taos............................ 90 52 86 51 / 0 5 10 20
Mora............................ 87 50 81 50 / 5 10 20 30
Espanola........................ 95 61 89 59 / 0 0 5 10
Santa Fe........................ 91 58 85 59 / 0 0 10 20
Santa Fe Airport................ 95 60 88 61 / 0 0 5 10
Albuquerque foothills........... 97 70 92 69 / 0 0 5 10
Albuquerque heights............. 98 69 93 68 / 0 0 0 10
Albuquerque valley.............. 99 68 94 67 / 0 0 0 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 10
Los Lunas....................... 99 64 94 64 / 0 0 0 10
Rio Rancho...................... 98 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 10
Socorro......................... 101 67 96 67 / 0 0 5 20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 59 86 60 / 0 0 5 10
Tijeras......................... 94 61 89 61 / 0 0 5 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 55 88 55 / 0 5 10 20
Clines Corners.................. 92 56 82 56 / 0 10 10 30
Gran Quivira.................... 93 58 87 59 / 0 0 10 20
Carrizozo....................... 96 63 90 64 / 0 0 10 20
Ruidoso......................... 90 56 76 57 / 0 0 20 30
Capulin......................... 83 52 79 53 / 5 10 30 40
Raton........................... 89 54 82 52 / 10 10 30 40
Springer........................ 92 53 84 53 / 5 10 30 40
Las Vegas....................... 92 53 79 52 / 5 10 20 40
Clayton......................... 87 56 80 56 / 0 20 10 50
Roy............................. 92 56 80 57 / 0 10 10 50
Conchas......................... 99 62 87 62 / 0 10 10 50
Santa Rosa...................... 100 62 89 62 / 0 10 10 50
Tucumcari....................... 99 63 85 62 / 0 20 5 60
Clovis.......................... 100 61 83 60 / 0 10 10 50
Portales........................ 102 63 86 63 / 0 5 5 50
Fort Sumner..................... 101 64 87 63 / 0 10 5 50
Roswell......................... 108 68 87 67 / 0 0 5 40
Picacho......................... 99 62 85 63 / 0 5 10 30
Elk............................. 95 60 83 61 / 0 0 30 30

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... nmz538.

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