Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 220549 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1149 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the taf
period except for brief MVFR conditions in/near showers and storms
Thursday afternoon/evening. Klvs is the terminal most likely to be
impacted by storms, followed by ktcc and lastly krow.
Previous discussion...330 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019...
showers and thunderstorms aligned from southwest to northeast over
New Mexico late this afternoon will continue to progress to the east
this evening. Locally heavy rain will be possible with some of the
storms, and isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over
far northeast New Mexico. Drier air working into the state from the
west will gradually shut down shower and storm chances later this
week and over the weekend. With the drier air will come warmer
temperatures. Some record breaking heat will be possible Friday
through Monday before a couple of cold fronts restore some moisture
and closer to normal temperatures to the region.
no significant changes required this afternoon to the forecast.
Showers and storms extending from southwest to northeast over the
state at mid afternoon will continue to move slowly to the east. The
hrrr/nam12/rap13 and to some extent the GFS, all hint an outflow
boundary/convective cluster will push southward from north
Central/Northeast New Mexico this evening with potential for locally
heavy rain and strong northerly winds.
Drier air remains on tap to move into western New Mexico Thursday
and Friday progressively shutting down showers and storms. Models
indicate some of the drier air may not make much progress into the
Southwest Mountains until Saturday, as scattered convection is
forecast there on Friday.
Warmer and drier conditions still forecast over the weekend and
Monday with near record to record breaking heat. The 12z European model (ecmwf)
guidance forecasts a jaw dropping high of 108 degrees at Roswell on
Monday. Didn't go quite that hot, but that should help emphasize the
heat hazard message. A couple of fronts, one next Monday night and a
second Wednesday night should help temper the heat and add enough
moisture for showers and storms to return.
scattered showers and thunderstorms to favor a band from southwest
to northeast across the state, except for the northwest where drier
air has already moved in. Drier air is expected to move further into
the state Thursday and Friday, limiting convection to along and east
of the Central Mountain chain. As the high rebuilds over The Four
Corners region, it is expected to be a hot and dry weekend into
early week. A backdoor cold front Wednesday may provide some relief.
But, in the meantime, near to record breaking heat is forecast for
much of the state through early next week.