Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 131129 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
429 am MST Wed Nov 13 2019
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail as breezy winds increase this afternoon,
west-northwest/northwest through central nm and turning NE behind a dry backdoor front
moving into northeastern nm. This front will continue south and west
reaching krow and bringing a gap wind through the central mtn chain
in the evening. Arrival of The Gap winds at kabq and ksaf have
trended an hour earlier, but remain modest with gusts of 15-20kts
Previous discussion...155 am MST Wed Nov 13 2019...
a dry northwest flow aloft through Thursday, then a ridge of high
pressure will cross nm Friday. A back door cold front will move into
northeast nm today and continue south and west tonight, likely
spilling into the Rio Grande Valley. A trough in the Pacific
northwest Friday will dive southeast toward nm this weekend and
strengthen. A strong back door front will also impact nm this
weekend. Some rain and wet snow will be possible over the northern
mountains into the northeast Saturday night into Sunday. Dry
northwest flow will return for early next week. A potential storm
could impact the area Wednesday night and Thursday of next week.
high clouds over southern nm will thin this morning and move east,
leaving the state with plenty of sunshine and milder temperatures.
Meanwhile a dry back door cold front will enter northeast nm this
afternoon and continue south and west tonight, likely seeping into
the rgv tonight. East and southeast winds should be light. It will
be mainly clear tonight with near normal lows.
Northwest flow aloft will weaken Thursday and it will be cooler
especially in the east. A ridge of high pressure will cross nm
Friday with temperatures warming again. Lots of sunshine will Grace
the area both days.
A trough of low pressure will enter the Pacific northwest Friday and
dive southeast and strengthen this weekend, while a potent cold front
sweeps through the state from north to south. We will hopefully get
some precipitation Saturday night along the Central Mountain chain
and northeast, most of it in the form of snow. Lingering light rain
is expected in our southeast zones Sunday. It will be cooler in the
east Sunday. Dry and milder weather returns early next week, perhaps
followed by a storm moving toward nm from the northwest.
east-central and northeastern New Mexico will see locally critical
fire weather this afternoon thanks to breezy winds, above normal
temperatures and high Haines. Duration and coverage will be limited
thanks to marginally critical minrhs and winds, precluding any red
flag issuance. Breezy winds will begin out of the northwest through the
Central Highlands near Clines Corners before a backdoor front brings
a northeasterly wind shift through northeastern nm in the afternoon.
This dry backdoor front will push south into the Pecos River valley
by mid-afternoon, and westward through the Central Mountain chain
producing only a modest gap wind in the evening.
Cooler temperatures follow the backdoor front Thu across the east. A
high pressure ridge moves over nm to end the work week maintaining
the run of high Haines. The ridge will also reduce winds with a
modest uptick of sfc moisture and temperatures for Fri and Sat.
The east will see southerly return flow during this time with poor
to fair ventilation. Models still indicate a quick-hitting system to
bring the only chance for precipitation clipping northeastern nm Sat
night into Sun morning, accompanied by another backdoor front
cooling down eastern nm.