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afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1125 PM MDT sun Aug 25 2019

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the taf
period. Afternoon and early evening gusts to between 20-25kts will be
common Monday. A wind shift is forecast with a backdoor front at both
ktcc and klvs Monday.

11

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Previous discussion...754 PM MDT sun Aug 25 2019...
update...
the heat advisory for today will be allowed to expire at 8pm. Went
ahead and issued a heat advisory for the same area on Monday as
temperatures will be similar. The npw is already out. New zone forecast product out
shortly.

34

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Previous discussion...304 PM MDT sun Aug 25 2019...
synopsis...
dry air is currently suppressing rain chances across all of northern
and central New Mexico while temperatures continue to soar some 5 to
15 degrees above average. A few locations have already shattered
record highs this afternoon in east central to southeastern New
Mexico. On Monday, a weak cold front will enter northeastern New
Mexico, dropping temperatures by just a few degrees while introducing
widely isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains through the evening. Remaining areas of
New Mexico will continue to observe hot and near record high
temperatures Monday afternoon. Temperatures will drop closer to
normal in the eastern half of the land of enchantment on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a gradual increase in isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

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Discussion...
Roswell has already shattered its record high and will undoubtedly be
the Hot Spot in the forecast area today. Several other locations will
also likely meet or exceed their records too through the afternoon.
Yes, it's a dry heat, but impressive nonetheless for late August. A
flat cumulus field has sprouted over the Mogollon Rim and a few other
higher terrain features within the state, but the low surface
dewpoints and pwats are insufficient for any shower or storm
development this afternoon. The dry air should allow temperatures to
drop fairly quickly after diurnal heating is lost tonight.

A backdoor cold front will drop into the northeastern quadrant of nm
on Monday, and while temperatures will drop 5 to 10 degrees in its
wake, readings will still be quite hot. Dewpoints will rebound to the
low 50's immediately behind the front, a bit lackluster, but perhaps
sufficient for a stray storm or two where upslope flow runs up
toward the eastern faces of the Sangre de Cristos. Probabilities for
any such storm will be quite low, and will likely hold off until the
evening or overnight. That will mean the bigger story will be the
heat ahead of the front. A heat advisory will likely be needed again
for the Chaves County plains (roswell) with many other record highs
in jeopardy Monday afternoon. Monday night into Tuesday morning, the
front should continue advancing through the rest of the eastern
plains and toward the Rio Grande, inducing a gusty East Canyon wind
for eastern abq and other susceptible locales.

Into the daytime Tuesday, the extent of higher dewpoints ushered in
by the front will be critical for the day's forecast elements. The
NAM is considerably higher with dewpoints in the eastern half of the
state (rising to the upper 50's to lower 60's) with some subtle
increases in the west central to southwestern mountains where a mix
of wet and higher-based dry storms will be possible. While the east
will be closer to average temperature-wise, the western half of the
state will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above average.

A reinforcing backdoor front could push into nm from the northeast
Tuesday night, potentially acting as a focus for additional storms in
the east. Storm-scale cold pools will enhance and help drive this
front southwestward, but to what extent is a bit more ambiguous. Look
for a gentle uptick in storm coverage into the day Wednesday
(especially over the southern terrain) as higher pwats try to seep
farther west.

High pressure will be meandering around western nm and Arizona during the
mid week period. As outlined previously, the GFS remains more zealous
with increasing pwats and hence more quantitative precipitation forecast over nm. Increasing convection
over the Sierra Madre in old Mexico could steer diffuse moisture our
way through the end of the week, but with the upper high located
west of The Four Corners by Saturday this could also open the door to
another frontal intrusion from the northeast.

52

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Fire weather...
widespread record heat, dry and unstable conditions are likely for
Mon. In fact, minrh will range from the upper single digits to near
15 pct for many areas. The exception will be across northeast/east-
central nm where a backdoor front will drape itself. This boundary
will surge westward Mon night, bringing decent gap winds and higher
humidities. It will also increase the threat for storms on Tuesday.
There will likely be a sharp moisture gradient and the wrn activity
could be a mix of wet/dry cells with gusty and erratic winds.

Another backdoor front appears to arrive on Tuesday night, although
not as pronounced compared to previous model runs. Regardless, the
chances for higher humidities and storm coverage should increase in
all areas except the moderate drought region of The Four Corners. A
fairly unsettled period is forecast from mid-week thru the upcoming
weekend - with greater chances for wetting footprints, save the far
northwest. Dporter

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Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... nmz538.

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