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000 
FXUS65 KABQ 162104
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming and drying trend will continue through Wednesday. Though
storms may not completely vanish, storm coverage will be very limited
Tuesday and Wednesday. An uptick in storm coverage is possible on
Thursday as a storm system dives into the Great Basin and moisture
shifts northward into New Mexico. The increase in storm potential
will be short-lived, as drier air punches into the state Friday
through the weekend. Storms will remain possible across the 
southeast plains Friday and Saturday, but beautiful conditions are 
expected elsewhere.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The atmosphere appears to be pretty worked over after yesterday and
this mornings precipitation. Now that there is some sunshine,
temperatures will warm and instability will increase allowing shower
and thunderstorms to develop through the early evening. Storms that 
have developed over eastern AZ, should move into western NM as well.

Drier air aloft will filter into NM from the west on Tuesday and 
Wednesday. Though storms will not completely be out of the question,
coverage will remain limited. The favored area each day will be
across the southeast plains. Meanwhile, the lack of precipitation and
cloud cover will allow temperatures to warm. Eastern New Mexico will
be up to 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday looks to be a bit more unsettled, though the specifics are
still in question. An upper level storm system will dive into the
Great Basin and moisture will be pulled northward into New Mexico
ahead of it. The question remains, how much, and which areas will be
favored? The GFS is the most robust, increasing moisture across most
of the CWA, and thereby increasing storm potential for most areas.
The NAM focuses the best moisture surge across the eastern half of
NM, while the ECMWF is very lackluster with it's depiction of the
moisture surge. Currently believe the ECMWF is too dry, but still
hard to say which areas will benefit the most. 

On Friday, much drier air will surge into western NM as the upper
level storm system swings across the central Rockies. Precipitation
potential will be shut down across the west, though a few storms will
remain possible across the southeast plains. Dry air will continue to
plow in for the weekend, though a few storms will remain possible
across the southeast on Saturday. Elsewhere, should be a great
weekend to be outdoors. 

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast 
period. After today's shower and thunderstorm activity diminishes 
this evening, drier air will move into the state from the west and 
will significantly decrease storm coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Storm chances through Wednesday will generally favor the higher 
terrain. Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal for 
most places by Wednesday. Wetting precipitation chances increase on 
Thursday as a low pressure system crossing the central Rockies 
brings moisture north into NM. As that system exits Friday, drier 
air moves once again moves in, decreasing precipitation chances 
through the weekend. Breezy conditions are possible in the northeast 
on Friday, but winds will stay below critical thresholds.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
MVFR cigs are still ongoing late this morning over portions of 
western and central NM, but cigs are anticipated to improve to VFR 
conditions early this afternoon. Another round of showers and 
thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening, favoring 
central and western NM. Confidence was low in this TAF cycle 
regarding timing of activity, but all TAF sites except KTCC and KROW 
will have some chance of shower and storm activity likely through at 
least sunset. Gusty, variable winds as well as brief MVFR cigs will 
likely accompany any storm activity. 

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  80  54  82 /  30  10   5   0 
Dulce...........................  47  74  44  77 /  30  30   5  10 
Cuba............................  52  74  51  76 /  40  10   5   5 
Gallup..........................  48  79  47  79 /  30   5   5   0 
El Morro........................  46  74  46  75 /  30   5   5   5 
Grants..........................  48  78  47  78 /  30   5   5   5 
Quemado.........................  50  75  49  77 /  30  10  10  10 
Datil...........................  50  75  50  76 /  30  20  10  20 
Glenwood........................  57  83  58  83 /  20   5   5  10 
Chama...........................  44  69  42  71 /  30  20  10  10 
Los Alamos......................  55  74  54  76 /  20  10   5  10 
Pecos...........................  53  76  52  78 /  20   5   5   5 
Cerro/Questa....................  48  70  46  72 /  10   5   5   5 
Red River.......................  44  63  41  66 /  20  10  10  10 
Angel Fire......................  41  70  36  71 /  20   5   5  10 
Taos............................  49  77  46  77 /  10   5   5   5 
Mora............................  47  76  46  77 /  20   5   5  10 
Espanola........................  55  80  53  81 /  10  10   5   5 
Santa Fe........................  55  76  54  78 /  20  10   5  10 
Santa Fe Airport................  53  80  52  81 /  10   5   5   5 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  81  59  83 /  20   5   5   5 
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  83  61  84 /  20   5   5   5 
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  85  59  85 /  20   5   5   5 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  84  59  84 /  20   5   5   5 
Los Lunas.......................  58  84  58  85 /  20  10   5   5 
Rio Rancho......................  60  82  59  84 /  20   5   5   5 
Socorro.........................  61  86  61  88 /  30  20  10  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  76  56  77 /  20   5   5   5 
Tijeras.........................  56  80  55  81 /  20   5   5   5 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  81  47  83 /  20   5   5   5 
Clines Corners..................  53  78  53  79 /  20   5   5   5 
Gran Quivira....................  54  80  55  81 /  20  10  10  10 
Carrizozo.......................  59  82  60  85 /  20  10  10  10 
Ruidoso.........................  54  75  54  77 /  30  20  10  20 
Capulin.........................  53  82  49  83 /  10   5   5  10 
Raton...........................  51  85  50  85 /  10   5   5  10 
Springer........................  51  84  50  84 /  10   5   5  10 
Las Vegas.......................  52  81  50  81 /  20   5   5   5 
Clayton.........................  60  88  58  87 /  10   5   5   5 
Roy.............................  56  84  55  85 /  10   5   5   5 
Conchas.........................  62  91  60  92 /  20   5   5   5 
Santa Rosa......................  62  88  61  90 /  20   5   5   5 
Tucumcari.......................  65  91  63  94 /  10  10   5   5 
Clovis..........................  62  88  62  90 /   5  10  10  10 
Portales........................  62  89  62  91 /   5  10  10  10 
Fort Sumner.....................  63  88  62  90 /  10  20   5   5 
Roswell.........................  65  91  64  93 /  10  20  20  10 
Picacho.........................  60  82  60  85 /  30  30  10  20 
Elk.............................  56  78  56  81 /  30  40  10  20 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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