Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kabq 231804 aad 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1204 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

18z taf cycle
primary concern will be scattered showers and storms across the
northeast and east Central Plains of nm this afternoon thru early
evening. This activity may impact the klvs/ktcc terminals where a
tempo group was introduced. Gusty outflow winds as well as large
hail will be possible, particularly over far northeast nm. Outside
of this activity, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of
the taf sites. Dporter


Previous discussion...925 am MDT Fri Aug 23 2019...
in coordination with weather forecast office Amarillo and the Storm Prediction Center,
will push an update to increase pops across northeast/east central
nm and introduce severe weather wording for the 21z-03z time frame.

The latest water vapor loop indicates a shortwave tracking through
northwest Colorado. This feature along with steep mid-level lapse
rates should provide sufficient support for storms to fire across
the higher terrain, then shift eastward towards the OK/Texas border.
This environment will be characterized with MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000
j/kg and effective bulk shear values of 30+ knots. It appears the
latest convective allowing models pop a few storms across portions
of Quay and Curry counties. While there is some uncertainty as to
whether activity will form in this region, if it does, storms will
encounter favorable conditions for robust updrafts. Overall, main
severe weather threats will be large hail and locally strong wind

Updated products will be pushed shortly. Dporter


Previous discussion...306 am MDT Fri Aug 23 2019...
dry air will continue to push into the state from the west today,
limiting afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the
southwest and northeast portions of the state. Dry and hot weather
is forecast for all areas over the weekend into Monday with near
record to record heat likely for much of the area Sunday and Monday.
A cold front remains on track for Monday night and Tuesday, cooling
temperatures down closer to seasonal averages and resulting in
chances for thunderstorms to eastern New Mexico Tuesday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances shift to the southwest and south-central
mountains Wednesday and Thursday.


the south-central and Southwest Mountains along with the eastern
half will be the favored areas for isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms today while Bone dry mid and upper-level
air wins out elsewhere. A dry weekend remains in store for all areas
with near record to record heat remaining on tap for Sunday and
Monday. Heat advisories are looking more likely for the east-central
and southeast east plains for both Sunday and Monday. Will hold off
another period or two before deciding on any heat highlights at this

A backdoor cold front remains on track to provide some heat relief
late- day Monday across the east while the remainder of central areas
see the front pass through Monday night. A cooler airmass moves in
eastern and central nm Tuesday but temperatures remain near to
slightly above seasonal averages for late August. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to look like they will remain hard to come by
over eastern nm Tuesday and over the southwest and south- central
mountains Wednesday and Thursday.

GFS continues to be more gung-Ho with regard to additional backdoor
fronts moving in from the northeast Friday into next weekend. Ecwmf
has the same general solution with the four corner's high centered
over the Desert Southwest and a deep trough over the upper Midwest
but differs on the strength/depth of the upper trough/low and the
resulting strength of the backdoor front(s).

While the short-term weather forecast is rather dismal with the lack
of a discernible monsoon, the good news for September and later into
the fall is that a highly positive Pacific-North American (pna)
index typically results in a very active northern stream and
frequent backdoor cold fronts. 33


Fire weather...
a warming and drying trend is underway and will continue through the
weekend into Monday, bringing well above normal temperatures with
some record or near-record highs sun/Mon as an upper level ridge
strengthens over the region. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will
expand over the area, with Haines values of 6 forecast across much
of northern and central New Mexico by Monday. Although humidity will
exceed critical threshold most areas sun/Mon, winds will remain below
critical threshold. A backdoor front will recharge moisture Monday
night and lead to improved, though unimpressive, chances for wetting
rain Tue/Wed. A stronger backdoor front may bring better chances for
wetting rain late next week, but the latest medium range model
solutions differ significantly with that feature. 11


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations