Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
541 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019
00z taf cycle
afternoon convection is tapering off through the rgv with remnant
outflow winds persisting through 01z, likely longer to 02-03z from
kbrg to konm. Scattered ts activity with isolated severe will persist
across portions of northeastern and east-central nm with storm
motions toward to east/southeast from kcao to ksxu to ktcc, perhaps as far as
kcvn by 04z-06z. Brief MVFR vis with gusty erratic winds, lightning,
and hail will accompany any of these passing storms. Conditions calm
past midnight for all areas with VFR prevailing through the rest of
the taf period. Winds shift out of the west/northwest for many areas Saturday.
Previous discussion...235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019...
..Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Union County until 04z...
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northeast and east
Central Plains may become severe late this afternoon and evening,
with the primary threats being large hail and locally damaging winds.
Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present across
the southwest and south-central mountains. Storm coverage will
continue to shift further east, leading to a hot and dry weekend
across the state. Near to record breaking heat will be possible
Sunday and Monday. A backdoor cold front Monday evening will drop
temperatures slightly and bringing additional moisture to the state.
a change from this morning's package was the increased instability
(cape ~1500-2000 j/kg and bulk shear of 20-25 kts) from Curry to
Union County. As a shortwave over northeastern Utah/northwestern
Colorado ejects some of its energy southward, scattered to numerous
storms will favor the northeastern portion of the state before moving
eastward later this evening. The primary concerns will be large hail
and locally damaging winds. Elsewhere, drier air has pushed its way
into the state from the west. Precipitable water (pwat) values are on
the downtrend with this morning's 12z sounding near Albuquerque at
0.74", and this will continue into the weekend.
A hot, dry weekend remains in store for the state with near to record
breaking heat Sunday and Monday. Heat advisories will be likely for
the southeast plains following multiple days of 105+ degree
temperatures. However, some relief is in store as a backdoor cold
front pushes through northeastern portions of the state Monday
evening. Daytime highs will cool to more seasonable values, although
still above normal for late August. This backdoor cold front will
also bring additional moisture to the state with the greatest chances
of precip along and east of the Central Mountain chain, along with
the Southwest Mountains.
By Wednesday, a building ridge pokes its nose into the state and a
northwest flow regime resumes with showers and thunderstorms mainly
confined to along and east of the Central Mountain chain for
Thursday. As of right now, some uncertainty exists as to whether next
weekend will be another active period. The European model (ecmwf) shows a ridge
building over The Four Corners region of the state and has backed off
on the precip, while the GFS is still quite optimistic.
no significant changes to the inherited forecast. A notable drying
and warming trend is forecast through the weekend. As a result, the
region will experience high temperatures 5-15 degrees above average,
especially on sun/Mon. For perspective, some record highs will be at
risk of being broken. This period will also experience minrh in the
8 to 20 percent range with poor to modest overnight recoveries. The
limiting factor for critical fire conditions will be 20-foot winds.
Unstable conditions are likely with Haines values ranging from 5 to
6 across central and eastern nm. A backdoor front will likely invade
the eastern plains Mon/Mon night, bringing some reprieve to the heat
and poor humidities. The latter portion of next week may turn cooler
and wetter as another backdoor surge of moisture comes into ern nm.
With that said, model inconsistencies persist. Dporter