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fxus65 kabq 182337 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
437 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019

00z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected at all taf sites through the next 24 hours.
Wind gusts from the southwest around 25kt Tuesday afternoon at ktcc
and klvs, otherwise light winds. Rain and High Mountain snow will
begin from southwest to northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday with
MVFR to IFR conditions developing.


Previous discussion...344 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019...
one more relatively warm day is in store for the northern two-thirds
of New Mexico Tuesday before a wet storm system moves up from the
south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snow levels from this first
system will be high, about 10,000 feet or so, lowering behind a
Pacific cold front associated with a second storm Wednesday night
and Thursday. Heavy snow is possible above about 7000 feet or so late
Wednesday night into Thursday with impacts to travel near the
Continental Divide between Grants and Gallup and Raton Pass area. A
break in between storm systems remains on track for Friday and


one more day of above to well above average temperatures and dry
conditions to get through before the weather pattern gets much more
active and colder with two storm systems on approach. High
temperatures Tuesday across east- central nm will be near daily
records from Santa Rosa to Tucumcari. Another weather parameter that
will approach daily and possibly monthly records Tuesday night and
Wednesday will be precipitable water (pwat) values across much of the
forecast area. 12z nam12 progs are near daily records for abq but
the 18z run has come down to near 0.75". At any rate, moisture will
not be an issue for the closed low currently west of northern baja
Tuesday night into Wednesday as it fills and lifts newd. Nam12
continues to shift the best instability/potential for thunderstorms
all over the place Tuesday night and Wednesday. Kept mention in for
most areas late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the favored area to
be south of I-40 Wednesday morning. Snow levels Tuesday night and
Wednesday will range from 9k ft west and near 10k ft along the
Central Mountain chain.

As the second, colder, trough/closed low approaches from the west
Wednesday night, snow levels start to drop rapidly over far western
nm after midnight. Models agree that snow levels will drop to near
6500-7000 feet by sunrise Thursday. Heavy snowfall continues to look
like a good bet for elevations above 7000 feet Thursday morning,
shifting eastward during the afternoon. A backdoor cold front will
also drop snow levels across far northeast nm Thursday as the
moisture associated with the trough/low moves in from the west.
Greatest travel impacts from heavy snow Wednesday night/Thursday
morning will likely be along and near The Divide, Raton Pass,
northeast Highlands and plains, in and near Clines Corners, and of
course along any Road/Highway above 7000 feet or so. Still too early
for any winter highlights at this point but all models are in very
good agreement and have been in very good agreement regarding this
scenario for Tuesday night through Thursday.

A few snow showers linger Thursday night before a ridge builds in
Friday and Saturday. GFS wants to replicate this weeks' weather
scenario a week from now but the ecwmf is slower bringing a cold
upstream trough/closed low in from the north until Tuesday. The GFS
beat out the European model (ecmwf) with this weeks' storm systems so we'll have to
wait and see at this point.



Fire weather...
well above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevail this
afternoon, with a mixed bag of poor to good ventilation. However,
this will be changing in a hurry as moisture advection ramps-up late
Tuesday in advance of a baja low, forecast to weaken and move
northeast across our area late Tuesday night through Wednesday. A
fairly widespread wetting event is expected, with snow levels around
10k ft. A second and much colder upper low will move across the
region Thursday, bringing another and potentially more widespread
round of wetting precipitation to the state. The second system will
feature lowering snow levels, with significant snow accumulation
likely in the mountains. Below normal temperatures will prevail
Thu/Fri, with higher humidity, wet fuels and mostly poor vent rates
by Friday. Mostly poor ventilation will persist through the weekend
despite a warming trend that will send temperatures back above
normal most areas by Sunday. A much stronger cold front will bring
strong winds early next week and possibly another round of
wetting precipitation (mostly snow) to northern New Mexico.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...

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