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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
411 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
dirty ridge persisting over nm through 16/12z with flow aloft
becoming W-nwly thereafter. Surface Lee trough through 16/18z then
surface low sags into ern nm as a cold front surges swd through ern
Colorado.

&&

Previous discussion...346 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019...
synopsis...
high clouds will continue streaming from west to east over much of
the state tonight and Saturday. A mainly dry cold front will bring
cooler air in from the north Saturday night, especially to the
eastern half of the state. Dry north to northwest flow aloft with
above average temperatures will be the rule through Tuesday, ahead of
a Pacific storm system that is forecast to bring rain and mountain
snow to much of the area Wednesday through Friday.

&&

Discussion...
swath of high clouds continues to thicken as it slides east through
central nm this afternoon. Models continue to bring in more high
clouds from the west tonight and Saturday and satellite imagery
agrees. Overnight low temps will be tricky with several hours of
clearing then more high clouds move in later tonight and Saturday. A
mostly dry backdoor cold front remains on track to move in for
Saturday night, especially east of the Central Mountain chain. Some
upslope stratus and perhaps some flurries or sprinkles are possible
for the east slopes of the northern sangres and the Raton Pass areas
briefly after midnight Saturday night.

A dry northerly to nwly flow aloft moves overhead Sunday into early
next week. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be several
degrees cooler than Saturday central and west with 10 to 15 degrees
of cooling expected east. Numerical weather prediction models agree
that a transitory ridge will slide eastward over nm Monday night and
Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile ahead of the above mentioned ridge, two distinct upper
lows/troughs approach from the west Tuesday into Tuesday night. Both
12z GFS and ecwmf keep the troughs separate with the first
precipitation band associated with the farther southern trough/low
moving in on Wednesday and the second low/trough low and
precipitation band Thursday night through Friday night. Sided with
the more consistent and slower ecwmf forecast, hanging onto precip
through Friday night. The initial system taps sub-tropical moisture
and is relatively warm. The exception being across northeast nm where
a backdoor cold front brings in colder and drier air dropping snow
levels to near 6500 feet Wednesday. Colder air moves into all areas
with the second storm system Thursday night, dropping snow levels to
near 6500 feet or so for much of the area Friday into Friday night.

33

&&

Fire weather...
high clouds will continue to push westward through the state as a
dirty ridge breaks down, but high temperatures are expected to
remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal tomorrow. Widespread poor to
fair ventilation rates will be possible, with better ventilation
across the eastern plains. However, areas of high Haines will exist
across the northeast corner of the state through late tomorrow
afternoon. But, the areas of higher winds do not overlap with the
area of lower dewpoints, so no critical fire weather conditions are
expected. Gusty winds up to 25-30 kts will exist across the
northeast Saturday and shifting southward down the eastern plains by
early Sunday, ahead of the next disturbance. Some light rain/snow
accumulations are possible along Raton Pass early Sunday morning,
but the main impact will be the cooler temperatures across the east
on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday will be dry and warmer under northwest flow.
Confidence has increased that there will be a wetter system to
arrive mid-to late week next week. While some model differences
exist, snow may be possible for the high terrain; rain in lower
elevations. Stay tuned.

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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