Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 112337 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
437 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019
00z taf cycle
strong/gusty East Canyon winds at kabq will gradually subside this
evening, but will continue to see gusts to between 35-40kts through
at least 03z. Otherwise, areas of MVFR cigs across central and
eastern nm are currently shrinking per the latest visible satellite
imagery. Taf sites are currently VFR and forecast to remain VFR
through the taf period. Southwest breezes will pick up Tuesday
afternoon at klvs and ktcc.
Previous discussion...254 PM MST Mon Nov 11 2019...
a potent cold front that blasted through eastern New Mexico today
will bring much colder air to the region through Tuesday. Wind chill
values in the single digits and teens will be common within the Rio
Grande Valley and eastern plains tonight. A warming trend is on the
way Wednesday followed by another, weaker back door cold front for
Thursday. High pressure will build into western New Mexico Friday and
Saturday with warmer temperatures and increasing high clouds.
a 1042mb surface high building south thru western Kansas with very dry
air and strong cold advection has led to bitter cold temps across
eastern nm. Freezing fog and freezing drizzle is focused from the
Sandia/Manzano mts southward to near Corona and Ruidoso where the
deepest moisture and upslope flow is present. Slow improvement is
expected thru early evening as dry air erodes surface moisture on
decreasing northeast winds. Gap winds within the rgv will peak in
the abq Metro area between now and sunset with gusts up to 45 mph
possible for a few more hours.
Flow aloft will relax Tuesday and surface Lee troughing will begin to
take shape over eastern nm. Temps will remain chilly with readings 10
to 20f below normal across the east. The next upper level trough will
approach from the northern rockies Tuesday night. A strong pressure
gradient along the east slopes will allow mountain wave activity to
produce periodic gusty winds through Wednesday morning. Temps will
trend above normal across the east with downslope flow on Wednesday.
Surface high pressure building south down the Front Range in the wake
of departing upper trough will force a weaker back door cold front
into eastern nm Wednesday night. Temps will trend below normal once
The temperature roller coaster continues Friday with upper level
high pressure approaching from the west. Temps will warm above normal
all areas through Saturday with increasing high clouds. The next shot
for colder temperatures and perhaps some light wintry precip will be
Saturday night and Sunday across northern nm.
under dry northwest flow aloft, temperatures and humidities will
rise and fall almost daily over the next week. Winds should be
relatively light, except for some gusts across eastern areas on
Wednesday, and the potential for stronger winds areawide this
weekend. Humidities will generally remain above 15 percent, except
Wednesday across northern and eastern areas.
Dry and cold air will continue to funnel into nm from the northeast
this evening. Temperatures will rebound and humidities will fall
Tuesday and Wednesday across the east, but not until Wednesday in
the west. An upper level trough will clip northeast nm Wednesday
night and Thursday, and send a cold front southward through the
state with cooler temperatures and higher humidities. Then, a ridge
of high pressure will cross Thursday night and Friday with warmer
temperatures and areas of drier humidities. Temperatures will fall
again this weekend as an upper level trough deepens over the Rocky
Mountain states. That system could produce widespread precipitation
Saturday night and Sunday, but there are still significant model
differences in depth and track that will affect the distribution of
Ventilation should generally be poor over the next 7 days, except
for pockets of improvement across the east Tuesday and Thursday, and
pockets of improvement areawide Wednesday.