Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 241139
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
539 am MDT Mon Jun 24 2019
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the taf period,
although localized smoke may lower to near the surface this morning,
possibly impacting ksaf and krow. However, very low forecast
confidence on smoke impacts at taf sites. Otherwise, winds will be
lighter this afternoon, but late afternoon gustiness is still
anticipated in the northeast.
Previous discussion...254 am MDT Mon Jun 24 2019...
could today be the last dry day for New Mexico for the summer? As
the upper high builds over New Mexico this week and low level
moisture moves in from the southeast, the pattern is looking more
monsoon- like. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as
Tuesday across southeast New Mexico before slowly expanding westward
through the week. However, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will
be possible across the north and west Wednesday and potentially
through the remainder of the week. Gusty winds will be likely with
these storms. High temperatures will be just shy of normal values
today, but will be near normal for the remainder of the week.
another weak back door cold front is sliding down the plains early
this morning. Moisture is increasing behind it, though it should
largely mix out this afternoon. Should be a great day across the land
of enchantment with slightly below normal temperatures, less wind and
plenty of sunshine. One caveat will be those areas near ongoing
wildfires or rx Burns where some smoke can be anticipated.
Low level Gulf moisture will start to seep back into eastern nm
tonight and early Tuesday as the upper level ridge begins to build
over the state. Though the moisture shouldn't be very deep, and
should mix out somewhat in the afternoon, it may be enough for a few
showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially along and east of
the south central mountains. A stray strong storm with small hail and
gusty winds is possible as well.
The moisture will slosh back westward again on Tuesday night as the
upper high builds over southeast nm and West Texas. Isolated to
scattered storms are expected Wednesday afternoon favoring the
eastern plains. However, some dry thunderstorms will be possible
west of the Central Mountain chain and east of the contdvd where some
mid level moisture exists but large inverted-v soundings suggest
quite a bit of virga and gusty winds.
Low level moisture will push into the Rio Grande Valley by Thursday
morning, and perhaps all the way to the Arizona border by Friday as storms
form each afternoon and outflow boundaries push the moisture westward
in the absence of the westerlies aloft. Meanwhile, the upper high
will slowly build over nm through the end of the week. Not much
change going into the weekend, though the upper high does weaken
slightly and drier air may nose back into the west. Overall though,
this could be the last dry day for the state for quite some time.
changes in the weather are coming this week. While high pressure
will build right over nm through this week, low level south to
southeast winds will bring plenty of moisture to the state. Today
will be the only dry day area wide with warmer temperatures. The far
southeast plains and south Central Highlands will get a few showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure develops.
Convection will spread across all the east as well as the higher
terrain in the west Wednesday. Any storms in the west could be
mostly dry with gusty winds. Despite high pressure strengthening
later in the week, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will impact all of our areas, except west of the Continental Divide
from Thursday into early next week. Our weather pattern certainly
looks monsoon-ish in nature.
Vent rates will be excellent the next few days, but lower to fair to
poor rates in central areas Friday through the weekend. Haines of 6
will be common through Wednesday before dropping the 3 to 5 Thursday
and beyond. Temperatures will warm to near normal then remain there
through the forecast period. With high pressure overhead winds will
be mostly light, preventing any critical fire weather conditions.