Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 210525 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1125 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
06z taf cycle
upper trough to pass from west to east over nm by 22/12z.
Increasingly drier over wrn and central nm with continued potential
for LCL MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in br east of the Pecos Valley
approximately 09-15z with isold to sct convection developing thereafter.
Swly wind gusts to around 35kts aft 18z over NE nm.
Previous discussion...issued by National Weather Service Lubbock Texas...
a few strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across eastern
New Mexico through early evening. Elsewhere, a drier southwest
flow will result in fair skies and quiet weather conditions
through the overnight. Drier air will exert more of an influence
over the area this weekend with plentiful sunshine and mainly
clear skies at night. The one exception will be across far
eastern and southern New Mexico on Saturday where isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. Daytime
temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal. Following
a break in the active weather weekend, a return to showers and
thunderstorms is expected early next week along with cooler
convection has developed west of Clovis and overall has remained
tame in terms of severe potential. Occasional moderate to heavy
rainfall could be possible in some of these storms especially as
they move closer to the nm/Texas state line where pwats are well over
an inch. Currently these storms are in a slightly drier environment.
Storm chances will decrease for much of eastern nm heading into the
late afternoon/early evening. Tomorrow afternoon the best rain
chances will be closer to southeastern nm.
Upper ridging will push into the region by Sunday allowing for a
slight warm-up Monday. A closed upper low is progged to push south
along the Pacific coast Sunday into Monday before becoming nearly
stationary by late Tuesday across Southern California. This upper
low could bring a few additional showers and thunderstorms across
our southwestern zones by early Tuesday. Models are in decent
agreement with finally kicking the low northeastward absorbing it
into the main upper flow. The GFS is faster than the European model (ecmwf) and has
the upper low/trough east of the region by Thursday evening. The
European model (ecmwf) waits until Friday morning to have the low/trough east of the
region. The upper low will have access to rich tropical moisture
while moving overhead and could bring beneficial rains to the
showers and thunderstorms will offer scattered footprints of wetting
rain across the east Central Plains briefly this evening and again
Saturday. Otherwise temperatures will stay slightly below normal in
western zones and slightly above in the eastern ones. Despite the
slightly cooler temperatures in western zones, minimum relative humidity will range
from about 10 to 20 percent over a large portion of these zones, as
well as the northeastern quadrant of the state. Drier conditions on
Sunday will eliminate precipitation chances while lowering afternoon
relative humidity by 5 to 10 percent more than Saturday.
Into the remainder of next week, a trend towards a wetter and more
unsettled pattern should alleviate most fire weather concerns. While
temperatures are not expected to trend drastically lower, wetting
rainfall chances would be on the increase as a dynamic low pressure
system takes a leisurely track across the American southwest and
eventually into nm by late in the week.