Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1102 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty across the east
Central Highlands and east Central Plains this afternoon due to a
surface trough in the Lee of the southern rockies. Surface winds will
decouple from the stronger flow aloft with sunset as a surface
temperature inversion develops. However, across the east Central
Plains, near the top of the temperature inversion a low level jet
will develop after sunset through the overnight hours producing low
level wind shear. The greatest low level wind shear impacts should be around sxu,
tcc, and possibly Fort Sumner. Models depict the low level jet
weakening as sunrise approaches, thereby decreasing the coverage and
intensity of low level wind shear.
Previous discussion...846 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019...
added cloudy skies this morning to the Gila region, lower rgv, and
Tularosa Valley where the Arctic front from Veterans Day has stalled
over the area. Expect cigs to clear thru noon with warming temps this
Previous discussion...201 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019...
dry and quiet weather into the weekend with northwest flow today
through Thursday. A back door cold front will drop south through the
east late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A ridge of high pressure to
our west will cross nm Friday. A shortwave trough along the West
Coast will strengthen as it moves toward nm this coming weekend. At
the surface a back door cold front will join forces with the upper
trough and bring a chance of precipitation Saturday night in the
northeast. That's our only chance of precipitation in the forecast
through next Tuesday. Dry northwest flow Sunday and Monday then a
weak ridge crosses nm Tuesday.
it will be a cold start this morning as the Bone-chilling back door
cold front has made it to the nm/Arizona border. Dry northwest flow will
be the rule through Thursday, followed by a ridge of high pressure
overhead Friday. It will be cooler in the west today with mostly
below normal temperatures. It will be noticeably milder in the east
but still below normal. Everywhere will warm up on Wednesday with
highs above normal.
A dry back door cold front will drop south through the eastern
plains late Wednesday and Wednesday night, likely spilling into the
rgv early Thursday. A temporary cool down Thursday will quickly turn
to a warmup on Friday.
An upper ridge of high pressure will cross nm Friday, followed by a
deepening trough of low pressure bearing down on nm Saturday and
crossing Saturday night. This will be our only chance at getting some
precipitation. A little snow and rain could fall in the far
northeast, from the northern sangres to just north of Clayton.
Dry and mild northwest flow Monday and zonal flow Tuesday may be
followed by a storm for the middle and latter portion of next week.
But it's way too early to get excited about it.
today will be much warmer across the east with breezy south-southwest winds in
the afternoon. Transport winds will be lighter and out of the west/west-northwest
through western nm. A dry backdoor front swings through eastern nm
Wed, with minrhs dipping to near or slightly below critical levels
as daytime highs rise back above normal by 5-12f. With high Haines
these conditions will allow for elevated fire weather conditions
through the Central Highlands near Clines Corners where stronger
west-northwest/northwest winds will be ahead of the backdoor frontal boundary.
Ventilation tanks Thu-Sat as a ridge moves over nm, raising
temperatures with daytime highs 5-10f above normal by Sat.
Recoveries will be fair to good for most areas during this time,
while minrhs remain above the critical threshold. There is virtually
no chance for precipitation through the rest of the work week, with
only slight chances arriving late Sat as a weather system clips